By Zheng Yijiu

Trump is back!

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, which concluded on November 6, he emerged victorious once again, returning to the White House.

This also means that TikTok's fate in the United States may now see a new turning point.

Just this April, Biden had signed a bill passed by the Senate, giving ByteDance, TikTok's parent company, a mandatory 270-day deadline for sale, plunging the most popular short video app in the U.S. market into an existential crisis.

However, this significant change in the U.S. political landscape may open a new window of opportunity for TikTok.

Current pressing predicament

The core requirement of the "sell or ban" bill is clear: either sell or exit the market.

Behind this simple choice lies a series of almost insurmountable practical obstacles.

First is the issue of valuation. Analysts estimate that TikTok's U.S. business could be worth tens of billions of dollars. In the current market environment, there are very few buyers who can and are willing to pay such a high price. Tech giants like Meta or Google are hampered by antitrust laws, while private equity funds, even if they team up, face enormous financial pressure.

Currently, TikTok's legal battle has entered a critical stage. The case will be heard in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on September 16, 2024, which insiders say is likely to be the final hearing before a verdict.

The court is expected to render its decision by December 6, 2024. If TikTok loses this lawsuit, it may face a ban in January 2025. This timeline puts immense pressure on TikTok and makes the impact of political changes even more crucial.

While former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has expressed interest in forming a consortium to acquire TikTok, few other potential buyers have publicly expressed interest. This current lull reflects both the market's concerns about the complexity of the deal and the more severe political environment.

More troubling is the challenge of technology spin-off.

TikTok's core algorithm is not only crucial to its success but also involves complex intellectual property and technology export control issues. The export of such core technologies requires approval from domestic regulatory authorities, casting uncertainty over any potential acquisition.

Additionally, TikTok's global business structure poses additional challenges.

With employees worldwide and executives in Singapore, Dublin, Los Angeles, and Mountain View, California, and an internal communication system closely linked to ByteDance, it is difficult to complete a business spin-off without affecting user experience.

In overseas markets, TikTok faces issues beyond just the U.S. market. On November 6, the Canadian government announced that it had ordered the termination of TikTok Technology Canada's operations in Canada. The announcement stated that the Canadian government was not preventing Canadians from accessing the TikTok app or creating content on the platform, as using social media apps or platforms is a personal choice.

Turning point in political changes

At this critical juncture, potential changes in the U.S. political landscape may bring a turning point for TikTok.

Notably, while Trump was the first president to take tough measures against TikTok, he had previously stated during election campaigns that he would "never ban TikTok," believing that banning it would only strengthen its competitor Facebook.

This attitude shift brings a glimmer of hope for TikTok.

However, this potential turning point is also fraught with uncertainty.

The biggest uncertainty lies in Trump himself, whose overall stance on China remains tough, and he has already made it clear during his campaign that he will increase tariffs on China. This complex policy orientation shrouds TikTok's future in uncertainty.

Looking back to 2020, Trump initially demanded that TikTok sell its U.S. business within 45 days or face a ban.

However, he later expressed support for the consortium acquisition plan by Oracle and Walmart. This shift shows that policy positions can be adjusted under the influence of multiple factors such as commercial interests, job opportunities, and political considerations. Although the deal ultimately fell through due to differing positions between China and the U.S., this process is still worth considering.

Fleeting opportunities that TikTok cannot afford to miss

Faced with adversity, TikTok certainly cannot give up.

Company CEO Shouzi Chew posted a video on the platform stating unequivocally, "Rest assured, we're not going anywhere." This is both a commitment to TikTok's 170 million U.S. users and a declaration of confidence in its future.

The legal route is the primary breakthrough chosen by TikTok. A litigation strategy based on the First Amendment has been successful in the past.

In 2020, the Trump administration and Montana's attempt to ban TikTok were both defeated in federal court because these bans could violate users' freedom of speech.

However, for TikTok, the political changes may not bring a once-and-for-all pass but rather an opportunity to return to the negotiating table. The real test for TikTok lies in how it can effectively address the concerns of various sectors of American society while maintaining its unique platform value, finding a solution acceptable to all parties.

In this life-or-death game, time may be TikTok's most valuable resource. From the crucial court hearing in September to the upcoming year-end verdict, every timeline is crucial.

After all, for an app that has changed the global media landscape, the U.S. market is both a core battleground that cannot be easily abandoned and a long-term challenge that must be carefully addressed.

On the road ahead, even if Trump's attitude shift brings a glimmer of hope, TikTok still needs exceptional skill to truly seize this fleeting opportunity.