By Seven Kung

"What can we do in November to boost sales?"

In late summer 2009, Daniel Zhang, then General Manager of Taobao, and his team were pondering this question.

At that time, Taobao had already gained momentum through its C2C model and initially resolved trust issues between individual buyers and sellers with the transaction security function of Alipay, leading to steady sales growth. However, labels like "fake goods" and "counterfeit" persisted, and with the rise of B2C platforms like JD.com and Suning.com, the future was uncertain.

"Inside tender, outside crispy," Zhang decided to pull off a big move in November.

November was chosen because October had the National Day Golden Week and December had Christmas, leaving November as a blank slate, with the popular "Singles' Day" meme much loved by young people.

Unexpectedly, the inaugural "Singles' Day" exploded in popularity. Every year since then, "Singles' Day" has shown astonishing energy, with GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) skyrocketing to its peak in 2020...

01 The Biggest Shopping Festival in Planetary History

After finalizing the basic plan for "Singles' Day," Zhang faced the challenge of how many manufacturers would respond. He wasn't sure himself.

In autumn 2009, Zhang personally visited the headquarters of sports brand Kappa to lobby for their participation in "Singles' Day." Song Li, former Vice President of China Dongxiang (Group) Co., Ltd., recalled that Zhang proposed a 50% discount storewide, but expectations were not high; they felt they would sell as much as they could.

However, Kappa's sales reached 4.05 million yuan that day. "It was too sudden. I had some expectations about the explosive potential of e-commerce, but I didn't expect it to be that strong, because the online store only sold 10-20 million yuan per month."

In Song's mind, this event was a milestone. A shopping festival that Forbes called "the biggest in planetary history" had officially arrived, with extensive and far-reaching impacts in the future.

In the second year, the number of brands participating in "Singles' Day" expanded from 27 to over a hundred, and GMV soared from 520 million yuan to 936 million yuan.

A group photo of Taobao Mall staff after the first "Singles' Day." Source: Internet

The changes went far beyond jumping sales figures; purchasing habits were completely reshaped. "Buying things online" was quickly recognized and accepted by the public, and material desires unleashed like a dam breaking, with business opportunities emerging at the fringes...

Between June 2009 and December 2010 alone, the number of online shoppers in China surged from 84.88 million to about 185 million, with a corresponding market size of 498 billion yuan, accounting for 3.2% of total retail sales of consumer goods in society.

"Singles' Day" became a must for merchants. Starting in 2011, JD.com, Amazon, Suning.com, and other e-commerce platforms joined the shopping spree.

Social media is often filled with similar news:

Some universities kept the dormitory lights on and the internet connection uninterrupted on "Singles' Day" to facilitate students' shopping spree;

In Wenzhou, Zhejiang, a woman tried to get an advance on her salary to go on a shopping spree but was refused, so she threatened to jump from a building;

In Yichang, Hubei, to curb impulsive spending on "Singles' Day," a husband rushed to the service hall to suspend his wife's mobile phone service and secretly transferred money from her account;

Courier warehouses overflowed, and everyone worked overtime, even the boss went out to deliver packages...

Consumers went on a crazy shopping spree, merchant orders soared, and platform servers even crashed under the strain. No one doubted the dominance of "Singles' Day," and no one would miss out on this "win-win-win" game.

In 2012, Tmall (formerly Taobao Mall)'s "Singles' Day" GMV exceeded 10 billion yuan, 100 billion yuan in 2016, 200 billion yuan in 2018, and neared 500 billion yuan in 2020.

It's worth noting that Beijing SKP, the best-selling mall in China in 2020, had annual sales of only 17.5 billion yuan.

"A train runs fast thanks to its locomotive," and Alibaba's performance also rose with the tide. From fiscal year 2012 to fiscal year 2020, its revenue increased from 34.52 billion yuan to 941.2 billion yuan, and its net profit attributable to shareholders increased from 8.543 billion yuan to 80.01 billion yuan.

A spot reveals the whole; as an industry "barometer," Alibaba's rapid progress also reflects the golden age of abundant opportunities.

02 The Tide Has Turned

At an economic forum hosted by Tsinghua University in 2018, Zhang dropped a bombshell: "If Singles' Day is still the same in ten years, it will definitely be wrong."

Opinions differ on whether "Singles' Day" is right or wrong, but a frenetic movement is destined not to be the norm.

On the first day of "Singles' Day" pre-sales in 2021, Li Jiaqi's "Oh my god!" and Wei Ya's "One, two, three, link up!" combined for nearly 20 billion yuan in sales, several times higher than the previous year, making most A-share listed companies envious.

But also in this year, Alibaba quietly removed the electronic screen displaying Taobao and Tmall's sales volume, abandoning a tradition that had continued since the inception of "Singles' Day" 11 years ago, with JD.com silently following suit.

This added a touch of mystery to "Singles' Day" and sparked speculation - was "Singles' Day" really slowing down, and if not chasing GMV, then what?

In retrospect, Alibaba's move already signaled that "the tide had turned": the 13-year-old "Singles' Day" would no longer be compared to the past but would embark on a new journey.

During this period, several noteworthy details emerged:

The number of Chinese internet users approached a peak: 700 million in 2016, 800 million in 2018, 900 million in 2019, and 1 billion in 2021. But the next 100 million took three years.

More players joined the fray. In addition to Pinduoduo, which rose from outside the Fifth Ring Road, and short video platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, as well as the "pioneer of recommendations" Xiaohongshu, all have competed to enter e-commerce. Although each has a different positioning, some focusing on interests, trust, or lifestyle sharing, their goal is the same - to sell products;

Consumption trends have shifted. Under the new narrative framework of "it's okay to buy something expensive, but never overpriced," "low price" has gradually become the most powerful weapon.

From 2023 onwards, "Singles' Day" fully entered the "besieged city" of stock competition.

A Singles' Day research report released by Bain Consulting showed that the total GMV growth rate slowed down significantly from 2022 to 2023, almost stagnating, but new paradigms such as live streaming released huge potential for driving sales.

Source: Bain Consulting Report

The just-concluded 2024 "Singles' Day" was also the longest in history, spanning from October 8th to November 11th, lasting over a month but being unusually quiet.

As the title of a post on Xiaohongshu puts it, "It feels like there's no atmosphere for Singles' Day anymore."

The platforms' final battle reports were also abstract, each with its own focus and highlights.

According to Tmall's official Weibo account, this year's "Singles' Day" saw sales volumes exceeding 100 million yuan for 589 brands, a year-on-year increase of 46.5%, with an over 50% year-on-year increase in the number of 88VIP members placing orders;

JD.com announced that sales volumes for over 17,000 brands increased by more than five times year-on-year during this year's "Singles' Day," with over 30,000 small and medium-sized merchants seeing sales volumes increase by more than two times, and strong performance in purchase and sales orders and the number of buyers;

Douyin announced that sales volumes for 33,000 brands increased by more than 100% year-on-year, and sales volumes for 17,000 brands increased by more than 500% year-on-year;

Source: Official Weibo accounts of various platforms

Xiaohongshu stated that merchants and buyers converged in two directions, with the number of merchants generating tens of millions of sales being 5.4 times that of the same period last year, the number of buyers generating sales of over ten million being 3.6 times that of the same period last year, and the number of store broadcasts generating sales of over one million being 8.5 times that of the same period last year;

Kuaishou also announced that GMV reached a new high, breaking multiple records. GMV on the first day of Singles' Day surpassed the historical peak, with a year-on-year increase of 94%, GMV for general shelf product cards increased by 110% year-on-year, and search GMV increased by 119% year-on-year.

In summary, the overall situation is not optimistic, but there are bright spots when broken down.

03 Blue Oceans for Growth

Currently, macroeconomic weakness has brought a sense of gloom to various industries, with less hustle and bustle than in the past.

But does this mean there are no upward opportunities? Of course not. Through e-commerce battle reports, we can still see many merchants accelerating, "dark horses" successfully breaking through and counterattacking, as well as the blue oceans for growth and methodologies behind them.

On Douyin, there are rejuvenated "time-honored brands" like Yaya Downwear, female fashion brands with a trendy street style like SMFK, and domestic cosmetics brands like Xiukefu;

On Tmall, there are high-growth brands like chongker, a custom pet simulation brand, Wen Tong Zi, a high-end plush toy brand, and SHANDMOO, a cultural and creative brand;

On Xiaohongshu, there are thriving brands like Dunlvdao, a handmade women's shoe brand, Augustinus Bader, an independent overseas skincare brand, and Hani Ranch, a food brand.

After distilling the central idea, the blue oceans for growth embodied by them can be attributed to category blue oceans, product blue oceans, channel blue oceans, marketing blue oceans, and AI blue oceans.

In today's world of abundant material wealth, it may seem that everything is satisfied, but that's not the case. Some niche demands just haven't been discovered, and the corresponding supply hasn't been filled.

Category blue oceans. Steve Jobs believed that a company's responsibility is to figure out what customers will want in the future, create it, and bring good products to consumers. Extending this, through precise and extreme segmentation, micro-innovations can create new categories, largely avoiding internal competition.

For example, chongker essentially recognizes modern people's emotional needs and emotional value. Besides providing pets and pet supplies, it creates a new category of custom pet simulations, giving humans a warm embrace of technology, and achieving unity of brand and effect through close cooperation with Tmall.

Product blue oceans. Let's take durian as an example. Dubbed the hardest fruit to peel, just the peeling process deters many people. Nowadays, it's all frozen, sealed in aluminum foil, and just needs to be heated when eaten. The convenient opening scenario naturally attracts more consumers.

Channel blue oceans. Emerging forces like Douyin and Xiaohongshu are still incremental fronts. The former's rich content ecosystem and the triple resonance of self-broadcasting, influencer broadcasting, and malls, and the latter's unique UGC community atmosphere, all contribute to amplifying sales volumes and building brand awareness.

For example, Yaya Downwear mainly distributes through Douyin and Kuaishou, leveraging the "east wind" of live streaming to grow from 80 million yuan to 20 billion yuan in three years, not only regaining popularity but also achieving an amplified voice and a snowball effect in communication.

Next, let's talk about marketing blue oceans. When it comes to marketing, most people might think of advertising and buying traffic. In fact, timely and situational strategy iterations are also necessary and important.

Let's use Xiaoxiandun as an example. It started with explosive popularity but soon entered a "bottleneck period" due to chaos in the bird's nest race and fierce homogeneous competition.