It was originally thought that 400,000 vehicles was BYD's limit, but surprisingly, in October just past, BYD's monthly sales volume reached 500,000 vehicles, shocking the entire industry. Among the top 5 independent brands (BYD, Chery, Geely, Changan, Great Wall), no company has yet achieved such an exaggerated market position. Based on the current trend, this year's "top seller" in the Chinese automotive industry (including joint ventures) will also change (previously SAIC Motor).

In addition to BYD firmly occupying the first place, Chery has also secured the second position among the top 5 independent brands; Geely and Changan are still in close competition, and the battle for third place among the top 5 independent brands remains intense; while Great Wall is moving further away from the others on the path of pursuing operational quality.

01

BYD leads in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth

In October, BYD sold 502,657 vehicles, an increase of 66.53% year-on-year and 19.84% month-on-month. Last year, some voices believed that as BYD's monthly sales reached 300,000 vehicles, its growth rate would also slow down and might even enter a bottleneck period for sales growth. However, the reality is that BYD's sales growth remains rapid. After returning to the 300,000-vehicle scale in March this year, BYD's monthly sales have increased month by month, surpassing 400,000 vehicles for the first time in September, and it only took BYD one month to increase sales from 400,000 to 500,000 vehicles, demonstrating a terrifying growth rate.

From January to October this year, BYD's cumulative sales volume was 3,236,927 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 36.5%, already surpassing its total sales for the entire year of 2023. At this growth rate, it is very likely that BYD will exceed 4 million vehicles in sales this year, which can be achieved if the average monthly sales volume maintains above 380,000 vehicles for the rest of the year.

BYD's high growth mainly comes from its Dynasty and Ocean dual networks. In October, sales of the Dynasty and Ocean dual networks reached 483,437 vehicles, an increase of 66.9% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 96% of total sales. Sales of the three high-end brands Denza, FENGYUN and NIO were 10,781, 6,026, and 282 vehicles, respectively, accounting for less than 4% combined. Among them, Denza's flagship model D9 has seen declining sales in recent months due to competition from models like the Lantu Dreamer.

Chery, which has been firmly in second place among the top 5 independent brands for six consecutive months, also set multiple historical highs in October. In October, Chery sold 272,155 vehicles, an increase of 35.9% year-on-year, setting a new single-month high. From January to October this year, Chery's cumulative sales volume was 2,024,948 vehicles, an increase of 39.3% year-on-year, not only surpassing its total sales for the entire year of 2023 but also marking the first time in Chery's history that its annual sales volume has exceeded 2 million vehicles. Among the top 5 independent brands, Chery is the second automaker to surpass the 2 million sales mark this year.

This is the result of the combined efforts of multiple Chery brands. In October, Chery brand sold 165,289 vehicles, EXEED sold 16,594 vehicles, and thanks to the "divine assistance" of popular models like Traveler, Shanhai T2, and JETOUR X70 PLUS, JETOUR sold 62,655 vehicles in October, with a growth rate seven times that of the industry. The iCAR brand sold 6,965 vehicles, and the newly launched ZEEKR R7 had its first-month sales of 6,897 vehicles, becoming a new sales growth point for Chery. From January to October this year, Chery brand's cumulative sales volume was 1,278,830 vehicles, an increase of 32.4% year-on-year; EXEED brand's cumulative sales volume was 112,540 vehicles, an increase of 17.2%; and JETOUR brand's cumulative sales volume was 439,327 vehicles, an increase of 89.3%.

Under a multi-brand strategy, Geely's sales volume has also steadily increased. In October, the Geely Group sold 226,686 vehicles, an increase of approximately 28% year-on-year and over 12% month-on-month, surpassing Changan Auto for four consecutive months. Among them, sales of the Yinhe series were 63,492 vehicles, an increase of 83% year-on-year; and sales of ZEEKR were 25,049 vehicles, an increase of 92% year-on-year. From January to October this year, the Geely Group's cumulative sales volume was 1,716,376 vehicles, an increase of over 31% year-on-year.

However, in terms of cumulative sales this year, Geely still lags behind Changan Auto by 80,000 vehicles. Based on the current pace, it should not be a problem for Geely to achieve its revised annual sales target of 2 million vehicles this year. However, it is still uncertain whether it can secure the third place in annual sales among the top 5 independent brands.

Although Changan Auto has maintained double-digit growth both year-on-year and month-on-month, its year-on-year growth rate is not as high as that of BYD, Chery, and Geely. In October, Changan Auto's sales volume was 212,838 vehicles, an increase of 7.27% year-on-year and 23.29% month-on-month; from January to October this year, Changan Auto's sales volume was 1,797,364 vehicles, basically the same as the previous year. This is mainly related to Changan Auto's accelerated electrification transformation, which has led to a reduction in the sales volume of fuel vehicles. For example, sales of mainstay fuel vehicle models like the Changan CS75 PLUS, Eado PLUS, and UNI-V have all declined to varying degrees this year.

This part of the fuel vehicle business is the main source of profit for Changan Auto, leading to a double decline in revenue and profit for Changan Auto in the third quarter. With the retreat of its joint venture business and the need for continuous investment in its new energy business, how to balance fuel vehicle sales and profits is a challenge that Changan Auto will face next.

In terms of sales volume, the gap between Great Wall and the other four companies is growing. In October, Great Wall sold 116,799 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 11.05%. Among them, with the help of the all-new Blue Mountain, WEY sold 6,486 vehicles in October, an increase of 187.5% year-on-year; while TANK, which had previously maintained positive growth, saw a 13.49% year-on-year decline in sales in October, and it is unclear what caused this. From January to October this year, Great Wall's cumulative sales volume was 970,612 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 2.49%.

02

Chery and Geely surge in new energy sales

In the new energy sector, BYD's sales volume far exceeds the combined total of the other four companies, leading with an absolute advantage; while the other four companies are also vigorously increasing their investment in new energy. If we only look at October's performance, after the launch of multiple new energy products, Geely, Changan Auto, and Chery have all entered an "accelerated explosion period" in their new energy transformation.

Besides BYD, Geely is the only company with a monthly new energy sales volume of over 100,000 vehicles, reaching 108,722 vehicles, an increase of approximately 83% year-on-year and over 19% month-on-month; moreover, in overall sales, Geely's new energy sales accounted for 48% of the total. Changan Auto's independent new energy sales ranked second after Geely with 85,272 vehicles, an increase of 58.56% year-on-year and 56.8% month-on-month. Both companies have accumulated new energy sales of over 500,000 vehicles this year.

If we talk about the fastest growth in new energy, it would be "unabashed" Chery. In October, Chery's new energy sales reached 71,330 vehicles, an increase of 342.1% year-on-year, setting a new high and catching up with Geely and Changan Auto. From January to October this year, Chery's cumulative new energy sales volume was 403,118 vehicles, an increase of 205.4% year-on-year. According to Chery Chairman Yin Tongyue's goal, Chery's new energy business will strive to reach the 100,000-vehicle mark in December. Great Wall's new energy growth rate is relatively slower, with sales of 32,039 vehicles in October, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year and 6.52% month-on-month.

As for exports, Chery has long been the star performer. In October, Chery's export volume reached 112,000 vehicles, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year; from January to October this year, Chery's export volume reached 941,000 vehicles, an increase of 23.8% year-on-year. In Chery's sales composition, exports account for a stable 50% of the total. This is expected to bring better profit performance for Chery.

Besides Chery, the overseas sales gap between Great Wall, BYD, Geely, and Changan Auto is not significant, basically ranging from 20,000 to 50,000 vehicles. Among them, Great Wall Motor's export volume in October was 44,418 vehicles, an increase of 25.7% year-on-year and a slight increase of 0.7% month-on-month, accounting for over 38% of total sales. This sales structure has allowed Great Wall Motor to maintain stable profit growth despite the highly competitive market.

In addition, in October, BYD and Changan Auto both had sales of just over 30,000 vehicles, with slight month-on-month increases. Geely's export volume has been declining consecutively, from 45,000 vehicles in August to 39,000 vehicles in September and further to 28,000 vehicles in October, a month-on-month decrease of 28.5%. This may be related to the EU's high taxes on domestic electric vehicles, including Geely.

In terms of profits, the five automakers have already released their third-quarter financial reports (January-September). Interestingly, although Great Wall Motor lags behind Changan and Geely in sales volume, its revenue and profitability have been known for stable growth. In the first three quarters of this year, Great Wall Motor's revenue was 142.254 billion yuan, an increase of 19.04% year-on-year, setting a new high; net profit was 10.429 billion yuan, an increase of 108.70% year-on-year; and gross margin was 30.8%, higher than Changan Auto's 15.69%.

At the same time, BYD achieved revenue of 201.125 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2024, an increase of 24.04% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 11.607 billion yuan, an increase of 11.47% year-on-year; revenue for the first three quarters was 502.25 billion yuan; and net profit was 25.24 billion yuan, an increase of 18.1% year-on-year.

Changan Auto achieved revenue of 34.237 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 19.85%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 748 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.44%. From January to September, Changan Auto achieved revenue of 110.96 billion yuan, an increase of 2.54% year-on-year; and net profit was 3.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63.78%.

It is believed that this is related to Great Wall Motor's high-quality business strategy of avoiding bloody price wars. Currently, Geely Automobile has not released its third-quarter report, and Chery does not release its financial status due to not being listed.