The grand finale of the automotive industry in 2024 - the Guangzhou Auto Show is about to open, marking the time for automakers to collectively summarize, sprint, fight for victory in 2024, and preheat and layout for 2025.

The exhibition is similar every year, but the cars are always different. The automotive industry undergoes subtle changes every year, and 2024 undoubtedly brings a significant mark, glimpses of which can be captured at the Guangzhou Auto Show.

According to official data, this year's Guangzhou Auto Show is expected to feature 78 world premieres, an increase of 19 from last year; a total of 1,171 exhibit cars, an increase of 39 from last year; among them, 512 new energy vehicles, an increase of 43 from last year; the proportion of new energy vehicles is 43.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from last year.

Behind these seemingly dry figures lies a turbulent sea. The new energy revolution in the automotive industry is moving towards deepening, segmentation, diversification, and complexity. The development fatigue of "the eldest son" pure electric vehicles is evident, plug-in hybrids have entered a golden age, and the previously unpopular "outdated technology" of extended-range electric vehicles has made a comeback, becoming the new favorite bet of all domestic automakers.

Data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) shows that from January to October this year, the cumulative retail sales growth rate of pure electric vehicles was 19.9%, while that of plug-in hybrids and extended-range electric vehicles reached 74.7% and 99.2%, respectively. With automakers making comprehensive adjustments to their new energy technology roadmaps and organizational structures, plug-in hybrids and extended-range products are likely to enter a period of rampant growth in the foreseeable future.

Therefore, at this year's Guangzhou Auto Show, Chinese brands such as BYD, Haval, Tank, Chery, Changan, GAC Trumpchi, Lynk & Co, Wuling, Dongfeng Fengshen, Geely Yinhe, and others have brought plug-in hybrid models. In terms of extended-range electric vehicles, many brands are still in the layout stage and appear relatively weak, mainly relying on veterans like Lixiang, Wenjie, NIO, AITO, Changan, and ARCFOX to hold the fort.

The list of exhibitors at each Guangzhou Auto Show changes, and this year is no exception. Brands absent from this year's Guangzhou Auto Show include niche brands like Polestar, Voyah, and Dayun, as well as imported car brands like Subaru and Genesis. It also includes mainstream brands with high national recognition such as Chevrolet, Jaguar Land Rover, Jetta, and Venucia.

Chevrolet, which sold nearly 800,000 new vehicles per year at its peak, now averages around 3,000 vehicles sold per month. Such a decline in volume has led to rumors of its withdrawal from the market. Jetta and Jaguar Land Rover not only have a single product line but also lack new technologies, resulting in gradually decreasing market attention. After being incorporated into Dongfeng Nissan, Venucia's performance has become increasingly mediocre, making it unnecessary for it to have a separate exhibition booth.

(Chevrolet's booth at the 2023 Guangzhou Auto Show)

New faces include emerging brands like BAIC Manufacturing 212, Gemstone Auto, Letao, and Yizhen. Additionally, brands that were previously absent but are now returning include Dongfeng Infiniti, Dongfeng Fengxing, Baojun, and FAW Besturn.

Although other mainstream Exhibition brands continue to attach importance to the Guangzhou Auto Show, the seemingly calm surface conceals underlying currents.

With the accelerated electrification of automobiles, industry profit margins have continued to decline, reaching 6.2%, 6.1%, 5.7%, and 5% from 2020 to 2023, respectively (CPCA data). State-owned automotive groups have been the hardest hit.

In the first three quarters of this year, Dongfeng Motor's net profit was -115 million yuan, a year-on-year plunge of 407%. Even Guangzhou Automobile Group, which had previously performed relatively strongly, saw its net profit plummet by 97%. Changan Automobile, SAIC Motor, and BAIC BluePark were also unable to escape the fate of plunging net profits, with declines of 64%, 39%, and 38%, respectively. Currently, only a few private automakers such as Lixiang, Thalys, BYD, and Great Wall are still profitable.

In the process of electrification, private automakers have obvious advantages in flexibility and innovation, while state-owned enterprises, with their more cumbersome institutional mechanisms, face difficulties in transforming like an elephant trying to turn around.

The luxury trio of BBA (BMW, Benz, Audi) also face inner sorrows despite their outward glamor, and are now accelerating their fall from grace. Data shows that in the first three quarters, BMW (including MINI), Mercedes-Benz, and Audi delivered 524,000, 512,000, and 479,000 new vehicles in the Chinese market, respectively, all down from the same period last year, with declines of 13.1%, 10%, and 8.6%, respectively.

BBA still showed great sincerity at this year's Guangzhou Auto Show, nearly sending their entire fleet. However, their new energy vehicles still lack highlights that can compete with Chinese brands. It is worth mentioning that Audi has set aside its arrogant attitude and begun cooperating with Huawei. The first model of their collaboration, the Audi A5L, will also make its debut at the Guangzhou Auto Show.

Mainstream joint venture brands are in an even more difficult situation. Affected by the continuous decline in the fuel vehicle market, escalating price wars, and their own inadequate transformation, they generally face significant profit declines this year. Many enterprises have had to choose layoffs, production cuts, plant closures, and other measures to save themselves by cutting off a limb. The current strategy of these joint venture brands is to maintain the competitiveness of fuel vehicles while seeking new energy technology support from their Chinese partners and striving to find their own differentiated advantages in the new energy sector. All of these will be showcased at this year's Guangzhou Auto Show.