Introduction

Amidst the tumultuous fluctuations in imported car sales in the Chinese market, Lexus's countertrend growth serves as a beacon for the industry: prioritizing long-term stability over short-term speed.

The automotive market landscape continues to evolve, characterized by fierce domestic competition, burgeoning export businesses, and contrasting fortunes within the imported car segment.

Despite a 45% year-on-year decline in imported car sales in October, some have prematurely declared the "collapse" of the imported car market.

However, a superficial analysis of sales figures fails to capture the industry's underlying dynamics. Within the imported car market, a clear divergence emerges: Eastern brands, led by Toyota and Lexus, are experiencing countertrend growth, whereas Western brands from Europe and the United States are witnessing significant declines.

Reflecting on the five- and ten-year development of imported cars, sales peaked at 1.43 million units in 2014 but have since declined steadily by around 8% annually, dipping below one million units in 2020 and reaching a new low of 800,000 units in 2023.

However, this does not imply a uniform decline across all imported car brands. As Eastern car brands remain stable in the Chinese market, it becomes essential to delve deeper and understand that stability trumps speed, and Eastern imported car brands are better aligned with the demands of the new era's Chinese market.

Speed and stability, while seemingly contradictory, are intrinsically unified concepts.

Lagging behind can indeed make one vulnerable, but an overemphasis on speed can lead to falling into the trap of utilitarianism and prejudice, neglecting the power of stability and patience. As a German proverb aptly states, "Steady and slow travel leads far." Similarly, a Russian proverb echoes this sentiment: "Walk slowly, walk far."

In the rapidly evolving Chinese automotive market, rather than focusing solely on short-term performance, it is prudent to consider a long-term strategy.

"A Few Red Dots Amidst a Sea of Green"

"China's imported car market has halved in a decade!" This revelation, when announced by industry associations, often evokes astonishment.

Taking October 2024 as an example, imported car sales in China stood at 44,000 units, marking a 45% year-on-year decrease and a 21% month-on-month decline, effectively "halving" sales.

The "era of numbers starting with 1" roughly coincides with the period when annual sales of imported cars surpassed one million units, ranging from 1.04 million units in 2011 to 1.05 million units in 2019, peaking at 1.43 million units in 2014, displaying a vague "rise and fall" symmetry.

From January to October this year, cumulative imported car sales amounted to 580,000 units, a 9% year-on-year decrease. Based on this trend, annual sales are projected to hover around 700,000 units, reverting to levels last seen before 2010 and representing less than half of 2014 sales.

Despite such a decline, the importance of the imported car market cannot be overlooked.

At its peak in 2014, 1.43 million imported cars accounted for approximately 6% of domestic car sales, totaling 23.4919 million units. Today, around 700,000 imported cars constitute roughly 3% of the domestic market. Nevertheless, even this 3-6% market share plays a crucial role.

Firstly, imported cars are predominantly luxury brands, accounting for 77% of imported car sales in 2017 and rising to 91% by 2022. Ultra-luxury brands, with their extremely high prices, hover between 0.5% and 1%, while mainstream brand models also tend to command high price points.

Consequently, high-priced imported cars offer substantial profit margins per vehicle for overseas automakers. Some profitable models even use quotas as "dealer incentives."

Secondly, the origin of imported cars signifies so-called "pure lineage" and often serves as a technological benchmark and lifestyle indicator due to their premium nature. The influence of automotive brands is reflected and consolidated through such roles.

Clearly, the imported car market remains a vital segment for global automakers.

Yet, amidst the overall market downturn, certain brands manage to buck the trend, achieving long-term steady growth rather than short-term spikes.

From January to October, two luxury brands recorded year-on-year growth in cumulative imported sales: Lexus with 7% and MINI with 6%. Including non-luxury brands, Toyota also witnessed a significant year-on-year increase. Overall, the growth rate of Eastern imported car brands far surpasses that of Western brands.

Analyzing the title of imported car sales champion, Lexus has retained its crown for four consecutive years since 2019, narrowly missing out in 2018 and 2023. In the first ten months of this year, Lexus sold a cumulative total of 149,000 units.

Due to the robust performance of Toyota and Lexus, Japanese cars surpassed German cars in 2024 to become the largest source of imported cars in China, with cumulative sales of 174,000 units.

Japanese and Swedish brands achieved cumulative sales growth of 5%, making them the only two categories with positive year-on-year growth among those with cumulative sales exceeding 10,000 units.

The year-on-year growth of Lexus, Toyota, and MINI underscores that despite challenges, there are reasons to remain optimistic about the imported car market.

Lexus's continued dominance suggests that this countertrend growth follows a pattern rather than being a fleeting phenomenon, warranting further exploration of the underlying factors.

Upholding the Right Principles and Making Bold Moves

From a brand perspective, Lexus, Toyota, and MINI have excelled in imported car sales this year.

From a regional perspective, Japanese car brands have also shone this year.

However, broadening our view, both imported Japanese cars and domestic autonomous brands represent Eastern automotive prowess, outperforming Western competitors. This broader trend mirrors the global automotive industry's shift from West to East.

Delving deeper, it is not difficult to uncover the philosophical underpinnings of "why the Chinese imported car market exhibits such a trend."

What are the hallmark characteristics of Eastern philosophical thought? It seeks balance, moderation, stability, and comprehensiveness.

As global resources become increasingly scarce, the guiding principles of Western modern civilization, which strive for maximal development, gradually reveal their shortcomings. Oswald Spengler, in "The Decline of the West," criticized the 20th century as a declining era focused solely on broad effects while excluding great art and metaphysical production.

Conversely, Eastern philosophy, with its emphasis on moderation and balance, is better suited to guiding the planet's future. This philosophy is also evident in the automotive industry.

Amidst the technological revolution sweeping the automotive industry, numerous brands herald the need for "bold moves" and "tradition overturning," yet Eastern automotive brands strive for balance and comprehensiveness, exemplified by Lexus's YET concept.

Categorizing imported cars over the past five years by electrification level—pure gasoline, hybrid, pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and diesel—it becomes apparent that hybrid cars lead in sales, followed by plug-in hybrids. Hybrid sales have even surged by 25% year-on-year this year, while pure gasoline car sales have also increased by 5%, providing fresh evidence that gasoline cars are here to stay.

The Eastern automotive camp should be grateful for its "stability-seeking" and "comprehensive" philosophies, placing equal emphasis on "upholding the right principles" and "making bold moves."

"Comprehensive" and "Bold Moves" are embodied in Lexus's proactive embrace of technological transformation, promotion of electrification and intelligence, while offering users diverse options.

Different electrification pathways excel in various scenarios. Hybrid cars suit those who prefer gasoline vehicles, plug-in hybrids adapt well to diverse road conditions, pure electric vehicles accommodate advanced intelligence and are ideal for short-distance urban driving, and hydrogen energy represents a long-term energy solution.

Lexus, consistently performing well in the imported car market, actively promotes a diversified electrification route. The Lexus RZ focuses on pure electric vehicles, the LM offers a 500h hybrid model, and the RX provides users with more choices, encompassing pure gasoline, hybrid, and plug-in hybrid options.

The crux of this strategy lies in adapting to various scenarios and presenting consumers with richer, more comprehensive choices.

"Stability-seeking" and "Upholding the Right Principles" are manifested in Lexus's adherence to the values of reliability and durability pursued by automakers, integrating these principles into the transition to new energy.

According to data from the infas research institute, range anxiety and refueling concerns are top worries for electric vehicle consumers in China and Germany, with 50% and 54% of consumers in these countries, respectively, expressing range anxiety. Safety concerns hinder the development of intelligence, with 56% of German consumers and 32% of Chinese consumers fearing intelligent driving assistance systems.

In response, Lexus harmonizes traditional values with new technologies, pursuing reliability in electrification and safety in intelligence.

During a media test of the Lexus RZ pure electric SUV's range, it achieved an 88% range attainment rate even with four occupants, driving in high temperatures in a desert area, and with the air conditioning on full blast.

Unlike aggressive intelligent vehicle technology, Lexus emphasizes a gentler, more human-like operation mode. The Predictive Driving Assist (PDA) system assists drivers in slowing down in advance when detecting pedestrians crossing the road, vehicles ahead, or curves, avoiding sudden braking and enhancing comfort and safety.

In the early stages of industrial transformation, Tesla and new entrants adopted aggressive and sharp styles to "break mental barriers" and win the favor of a niche group of pioneers. In the mature stage of transformation, traditional brands like Lexus adopt a gentle and thoughtful approach, providing users with more reliable and appropriate new technologies that cater to the rational demands of the mainstream population.

Going Far > Running Fast

When almost everyone learns to say, "This is an impetuous era," the macro-level high-speed pace permeates most people's lives. The entire world operates at a rapid clip, and we either actively transform into rotating motors or are passively spun into spinning tops by the times.

However, "speed" is not the sole value orientation. Long-term stability trumps short-term speed.

Lexus, having secured the title of imported car sales champion in the Chinese market this year, exemplifies the philosophy of "seeking to go far rather than fast" through its sales trends over the past five to ten years.

According to data from the National Financial Regulatory Authority and insurance industry, Lexus has held the title of "top-selling imported car brand" in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2024, surpassing the 200,000-unit mark in some years. In fact, in 2018 and 2023, Lexus was only a few hundred to a few thousand units shy of the championship brand, demonstrating overall sales stability.

This steady performance appears effortless and does not seem to exhaust all avenues, but it encapsulates the wisdom of Lexus and Eastern automotive brands—going far is more crucial than running fast. Moderate slowness, coupled with essential stability, is the key to long-term development.

Moderate slowness is neither sluggishness nor passivity; it entails maintaining a prudent and steady posture over the long term until the final sprint. Once, in my youthful exuberance, I mocked the teachings of Zhang Sanfeng in various works about Tai Chi, questioning the concepts of "defeating speed with slowness" and "conquering hardness with softness." It seemed evident that only speed and strength could prevail in martial arts. However, after witnessing numerous rises and falls, I have come to appreciate the philosophy behind slowness—slow and steady wins the race, embodying accumulative strength and reliability.

Japanese cars and the entire Eastern automotive camp should reflect deeply and act prudently, embracing the concepts of "stability-seeking" and "comprehensiveness" and integrating Confucian wisdom into contemporary corporate operations.

Over the course of hundreds of millions of years of evolutionary history on Earth, crocodiles are among the rare species that have remained largely unchanged. This is primarily because their physical structure is exceptionally well-suited to their environment, negating the need for further evolution. This creature typically lurks in the water, and its speed on land is scarcely comparable to that of a person walking. However, when attacking, its speed surpasses that of most animals, allowing it to swiftly capture antelopes and birds. Nature itself thus presents a successful example of harmonizing speed and slowness.

Perhaps on tomorrow's journey, people will continue to rush ahead, but they will pay closer attention to their surroundings and the path beneath their feet, savoring the new experiences that the philosophy of slowness brings. They will not fear ridicule for losing their competitive edge, desiring to buy osmanthus flowers and share wine, even if it may not resemble the youthful excursions of the past. Only by taking each step steadily can one revisit old landscapes without being consumed by new sorrows.