According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's domestic auto production and sales reached 31.282 million and 31.436 million vehicles in 2024, marking increases of 3.7% and 4.5% year-on-year, respectively. Auto exports surged 19.3% to 5.859 million vehicles, further solidifying China's position as the world's largest auto exporter.

As the dust settles on the 2024 auto market, automakers have swiftly shifted their focus to 2025, with many unveiling ambitious sales targets. Behind these figures lies a fierce battle between thriving success stories and struggling enterprises.

▍The Disparity Between Aspirations and Achievements

Traditional automakers like Geely and BYD, alongside new entrants such as Li Auto and Xiaomi, met their year-start goals based on 2024 sales figures.

Geely sold a total of 2,176,567 vehicles throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of over 32%, surpassing its sales target of 2 million and setting a new annual sales record. Its new energy vehicle sales totaled 888,235 units, up approximately 92% year-on-year, also exceeding its annual sales target.

BYD, a leader in the new energy vehicle sector, sold a total of 4.2721 million vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41.26%. This surpassed SAIC Group for the first time, ending the latter's 18-year reign as China's top-selling automaker. BYD's success is attributed to its robust technological R&D capabilities and comprehensive independent supply chain system. Additionally, BYD actively expanded its overseas market, selling 57,200 new energy passenger vehicles overseas in December 2024, continuously expanding its overseas market share.

Li Auto also delivered a satisfactory performance in 2024, with a total delivery volume of 500,508 vehicles, narrowly achieving its annual sales target of 500,000 vehicles and becoming the top-selling new force auto brand in 2024 with the only sales volume exceeding 500,000 vehicles.

Xiaomi Auto, which has been listed for less than a year, opened 200 store networks in 58 cities nationwide in 2024, delivering over 135,000 new vehicles throughout the year.

However, not all automakers achieved their sales targets in 2024. Despite selling a total of 2.003 million vehicles throughout the year, including 127,000 exports, a year-on-year increase of 67.6%, and maintaining month-on-month growth for six consecutive months from July, GAC Group fell short of its sales target set at the beginning of the year.

Among independent brands, GAC Trumpchi sold a total of 415,000 vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2%, with new energy vehicle sales up 129.8% year-on-year. GAC Aion sold a total of 374,900 vehicles throughout the year. Among joint venture brands, GAC Toyota sold a total of 770,100 vehicles at the terminal throughout the year, with intelligent electric hybrid models accounting for 48% of sales. GAC Honda sold a total of 480,800 vehicles at the terminal throughout the year. GAC Group's failure to meet its target is primarily due to the slow transformation of its joint venture brands and fierce market competition. Amid the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the electrification transformation of GAC Honda and GAC Toyota lags behind, with slower new product launches and weaker market competitiveness compared to some competitors.

Dongfeng Group sold 2.48 million vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Although this was the first positive growth in annual sales since 2017, it still fell short of the sales target of 3.2 million vehicles set at the beginning of the year, with a completion rate of 77.5%. However, the rise of independent brands became a bright spot for Dongfeng Group, with sales reaching 1.37 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, accounting for 55% of the group's sales and increasing by 13% compared to 2023. Dongfeng Group held a conference on December 30, 2024, proposing to strive to achieve an overall annual sales target of "aiming for 3 million and challenging 3.2 million vehicles" in 2025, with new energy vehicle sales exceeding 1 million and overseas exports exceeding 500,000 vehicles.

Some new force automakers also faced the challenge of not meeting their sales targets. NIO delivered a total of 221,970 vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 38.7%, but failed to meet its sales target set at the beginning of the year. NIO has made strides in brand premiumization, ranking first in sales among pure electric brands priced above 300,000 yuan in the Shanghai region for two consecutive years. However, its pricing strategy and relatively limited product line have to some extent constrained its sales growth.

XPeng delivered 190,100 vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 34.2%. Its initial target was 280,000 vehicles, later revised to 200,000 vehicles, with a sales target completion rate of 95.03%. Affected by factors such as product renewal pace and market positioning accuracy in the early stage, XPeng, despite delivering 91,500 vehicles in the fourth quarter by launching new models and adjusting marketing strategies, setting a new record for quarterly deliveries, failed to meet its annual target.

▍Traditional 'Cautiousness' vs. New Force 'Boldness'

As 2024 draws to a close, many automakers have set ambitious sales targets for 2025, reflecting their confidence in the future market and showcasing their distinct development strategies and ambitions.

Among new force automakers, HarmonyOS Auto and Xiaomi Auto have set highly aggressive targets.

HarmonyOS Auto delivered 445,000 new vehicles in 2024, falling short of its target of 500,000 vehicles but confidently setting a sales target of 1 million vehicles for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of up to 125%. HarmonyOS Auto's Wenjie brand has achieved market success with models such as the M7 and M9. The Wenjie M7 performs well in the 250,000 yuan market segment, while the Wenjie M9 is favored in the 500,000 yuan market segment. The planned launch of new models such as the Wenjie M8 in 2025 is expected to further enrich the product line and boost sales growth.

As a newcomer to the auto industry, Xiaomi Auto aims to deliver 300,000 vehicles in 2025, with a target growth rate of 122%. Xiaomi Auto made its market debut with the SU7 model in 2024. The highly anticipated SUV model Xiaomi YU7, which will be launched in 2025, is expected to become a new sales growth point.

In addition, NIO's sales target for 2025 is to double that of 2024, at about 444,000 vehicles. NIO has made remarkable achievements in brand premiumization, ranking first in sales among pure electric brands priced above 300,000 yuan in the Shanghai region for two consecutive years. In 2025, it will further expand its market share by launching multiple new models, such as two new SUVs under the Ledo brand.

Zero Run Auto will strive to achieve a new sales target of 500,000 vehicles in 2025. In 2024, Zero Run not only exceeded its annual sales target but also achieved a net profit turnaround in the fourth quarter, becoming the second auto newcomer to achieve profitability after Li Auto. Its strengths in technological R&D and cost control provide robust support for achieving its 2025 target.

In contrast, traditional automakers have set relatively cautious sales targets. Geely Auto has set a sales target of 2.71 million vehicles for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 25% over its total sales in 2024, with a sales target of about 1.5 million new energy vehicles.

Changan Auto has set a target of 3 million vehicles for 2025, with a growth rate of about 12%. In 2024, Changan Auto is expected to sell 2.683 million vehicles and launch 19 new energy products, making progress in new energy, intelligence, and globalization. In 2025, Changan Auto plans to carry out six major initiatives, including exploring the global market and strengthening overseas cooperation, to achieve its sales target.

GAC Group has set a target of 2.3 million vehicles for 2025, representing a growth rate of about 15%. Although it failed to meet its sales target in 2024, GAC Group has demonstrated good development momentum in independent brands and the new energy sector. It will achieve its 2025 target by optimizing product structure and enhancing market competitiveness.

Automakers base their 2025 sales targets on various factors. Due to their late start and relatively small market share, new force automakers often set aggressive sales targets to swiftly expand their market share and enhance brand awareness in the fiercely competitive market. As a newcomer, Xiaomi Auto needs to drive its rapid development through high targets and leverage its advantages in the technology sector to quickly seize market share.

In contrast, traditional automakers, with their large user base and mature sales network, place more emphasis on development pace and market stability, setting relatively conservative targets. Like Geely Auto, it aims to achieve gradual sales growth by steadily launching new products and expanding the new energy market while maintaining its existing market share.

▍Rising Competition Intensity

The auto market in 2025 will undoubtedly be a fiercely competitive red ocean. The horn of the elimination round has already sounded, and the competition will be more intense than ever. He Xiaopeng clearly stated in an internal letter that the auto industry will enter an elimination round from 2025 to 2027. Market competition will intensify in 2025, with potential price wars igniting from the beginning of the year. Some industry experts also believe that the auto industry's value system will be redefined in 2025, with cost pressures permeating the entire supply chain, organizational mechanisms seeking innovation and change, digital transformation being deeply explored, global layouts proceeding cautiously, and forward-looking technologies being implemented. These trends will further heighten market competition.

The impact of this intensifying competition on automakers is multifaceted. First, market share is further compressed. As more automakers enter the market and launch various new models, consumers have more choices, putting tremendous pressure on automakers to enhance product competitiveness to secure a share of the market.

For core components of new energy vehicles, such as batteries and chips, there is a high degree of dependency on the supply chain. The global chip shortage has caused production difficulties for many new force automakers, leading to decreased output. In terms of profitability, new force automakers generally face significant pressure. Due to huge R&D investments and small production scales, many new force automakers are still operating at a loss. To achieve profitability, new force automakers need to further optimize their cost structure, improve production efficiency, and expand market share.

Data analysis by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that China's auto market overall sales growth was relatively stable in 2024, but the market share of some automakers declined significantly. In the new energy vehicle sector, the rise of some emerging brands has severely impacted the market share of traditional automakers. Secondly, profit margins have been notably reduced. To compete for market share, automakers must engage in price wars and constantly lower product prices, directly leading to compressed profit margins. To control costs, some automakers have to cut R&D investment and marketing expenses, which further affects product quality and marketing effectiveness, increasing the difficulty of business operations.

Typesetting: Yang Shuo | Images

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