For China's private commercial rockets—especially liquid rockets—sending 18 satellites in a single launch remains a rare achievement.

CAS Space's Lijian-2 Y2 successfully placed 18 Qianfan constellation satellites into their planned orbit. Following its successful maiden flight on March 30 this year, this liquid rocket completed its first large satellite constellation batch networking mission, marking another advance in the large-scale delivery capability of China's private commercial rockets.

The construction of satellite internet is creating massive launch demand, and the continuous networking missions of large constellations are also giving commercial rocket companies opportunities to expand production and launch scale.

So the question is: can sending 18 satellites in one launch enable rocket companies to make money?

Judging from the current industry operating conditions, the answer is still no. Greater capacity creates new revenue opportunities, but high manufacturing costs, limited launch frequency and continuous R&D investment still constrain the profitability of commercial rockets. The high risks inherent in rocket launches also make scaled operations in this industry face more challenges.

01 The business of large capacity

The revenue of commercial rockets first depends on how much customers are willing to pay to send payloads into orbit.

In July 2025, Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology Co., Ltd., the operator of the Qianfan constellation, launched procurement of launch services, with the maximum tax-inclusive prices for 10 satellites per launch and 18 satellites per launch set at 55,000 yuan and 50,000 yuan per kilogram, respectively. This provides a reference for observing launch service prices for large constellations.

For operators that need to deploy large numbers of satellites, carrying more satellites in a single launch can reduce the number of launch batches required to complete the corresponding networking tasks. For rocket companies, it means opportunities to undertake larger-scale transport missions.

However, the number of satellites cannot directly determine launch revenue. Actual payloads, target orbits and contract prices differ, so even for the same 18 satellites in one launch, mission revenue may vary significantly.

High-capacity rockets can increase the scale of a single transport mission, but larger rocket bodies, more engines and propellant also increase manufacturing and launch costs. Only by securing sufficient payload demand and making the growth in transport capacity exceed the corresponding growth in costs can unit transport costs possibly decline.

Therefore, the 18-satellite mission proves Lijian-2's ability to undertake batch networking missions, but whether a single mission is profitable still depends on contract revenue and actual costs.

02 Scale determines cost

Engines, tanks, rocket body structures and avionics systems involve a large number of components, a considerable portion of which need to be custom-produced by specialized suppliers. When output is limited, upstream procurement prices are higher, and the fixed costs of plants, equipment and test facilities are also difficult to fully allocate.

CAS Space's updated prospectus discloses that from 2023 to 2025, the restored gross margins of the Lijian-1 launch service business were -122.85%, -74.55% and -83.84%, respectively. In 2024, as launch missions increased, fixed cost allocation improved somewhat; in 2025, as launch scale continued to expand, this indicator fell again due to factors such as average selling price per launch, raw material procurement costs and fixed cost allocation.

In 2025, CAS Space achieved operating revenue of 277 million yuan and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.119 billion yuan.

These data show that expanding scale helps reduce costs, but order prices, manufacturing efficiency and continuous investment also affect corporate profitability. An increase in the number of launches does not necessarily bring profit growth.

Lijian-2 adopts the CBC common booster core configuration, reducing differences in components and manufacturing processes by increasing the commonality between the first core stage and boosters. As the production volume of the same model increases, companies can expand standardized procurement scale and improve processing, final assembly and testing efficiency.

High-frequency launches are related to the utilization efficiency of production and launch facilities.

A production line capable of producing dozens of rockets per year, if there are only a small number of actual launch missions in a year, still requires equipment depreciation, personnel and facility costs to be borne by limited products. Only when production capacity, order volume and launch site support match each other can a stable delivery rhythm be formed.

Large capacity increases the scale of a single transport mission, batch manufacturing lowers the cost per rocket, and high-frequency launches improve facility utilization. The economies of scale of commercial rockets need to be supported by all three.

03 Reliability and profit

There is another key condition for the profitability of commercial rockets: launch reliability.

There is a saying in the industry that if nine out of ten launches succeed, a rocket company may not make money as long as one fails. This is certainly not a universal profitability standard, but it reflects the financial pressure that launch failures may cause to companies.

If a mission fails, the manufacturing, testing and launch investments in the earlier stage have already occurred, and there may also be costs for fault investigation, test reproduction, design improvement and reflight verification. During the temporary grounding of the model, related facilities and personnel still need to be maintained, and compensation or relaunch obligations stipulated in contracts may also increase the company's burden.

For companies with limited profit margins, one serious failure may offset the operating results accumulated from multiple previous successful launches, and may also disrupt subsequent mission arrangements and affect customers' judgment of continuous delivery capability.

High-frequency launches must be built on a reliable manufacturing and quality control system. An increase in the number of launches can accumulate flight data and improve technology, but large-scale production also requires companies to ensure performance consistency across different batches of rockets. If reliability is insufficient, the cost advantages brought by continuous orders and batch manufacturing will be difficult to convert into stable returns.

Reusable technology has the opportunity to further improve costs, but it is also constrained by reliability and launch frequency.

CAS Space has planned a clustered integral recovery scheme for the subsequent reusable Lijian-2 and Lijian-2 Heavy, hoping to reduce remanufacturing expenses by recovering and reusing the core stage and boosters. Recovery itself requires additional propellant, landing facilities, inspection and refurbishment, and preparation for re-launch. Only with sufficient reuse times and a short turnaround cycle can the saved manufacturing costs cover the additional expenditures.

Even if launch services achieve positive gross profit, it does not mean the entire company is already profitable. Expenses such as new model R&D, management and operations still need to be borne, and previous investments in production bases and test facilities will also continue to affect operating results.

Lijian-2's 18 satellites in one launch has accumulated important flight records for CAS Space to enter the large constellation batch networking market. Whether it can form continuous orders in the future and reduce costs while maintaining reliable delivery will determine how much commercial value this model can create.

Sending 18 satellites in one launch has expanded the capacity boundary of China's private commercial rockets. Profitability needs to be gradually established through continuous orders, large-scale manufacturing and long-term reliable launches. This competition over profit has only just begun.