It is common knowledge that Lei Jun has set an ambitious sales target of 550,000 vehicles for Xiaomi Auto in the current year.

In the previous year, Xiaomi Auto managed to deliver 418,000 vehicles. Thus, the current target of 550,000 vehicles represents only a 133% increase compared to last year's figure, equating to a mere 33% growth.

Considering the immense popularity of Xiaomi Auto last year, many are inclined to think that the 550,000-vehicle target might be too modest. This is particularly true when some automakers have set their sights on a 100% increase, aiming to double their sales figures.

However, the situation took an unexpected downturn in 2026. Data from January to August reveals that total sales across the entire automotive market have plummeted by approximately 20%.

Given the overall sluggish market conditions and the challenging business environment, it is inevitable that sales for all automakers will be adversely affected.

Consequently, we observe that many automakers are significantly lagging behind their annual targets set at the beginning of the year. By August, some manufacturers have not even managed to achieve 50% of their goals.

Xiaomi is no exception to this trend. By the end of August, it had only delivered around 250,000 vehicles, achieving a mere 45% progress rate, despite two-thirds of the year having already elapsed.

In September, Xiaomi delivered an additional 40,000 vehicles, bringing the total deliveries to 290,000 by the end of the month. With three-quarters of the year gone, only 52% of the target has been accomplished, leaving a substantial shortfall of 260,000 vehicles.

A straightforward calculation indicates that to meet the target, Xiaomi would need to deliver a staggering 260,000 vehicles in the remaining three months (October, November, and December), averaging 86,700 vehicles per month.

Is it feasible to deliver 86,700 vehicles in a single month?

Last year, Xiaomi's peak delivery volume reached 50,000 vehicles. This year, up until September, it only managed to deliver 40,000 vehicles, with Pengcheng contributing 10,000 and the SU7 and YU7 models accounting for approximately 30,000.

Moreover, based on this year's data, it appears that the combined maximum monthly delivery volume for the SU7 and YU7 models is around 30,000 vehicles. This would imply that Pengcheng would need to deliver an astonishing 50,000 to 60,000 vehicles per month, which seems highly improbable.

Although Pengcheng does have tens of thousands of locked-in orders, even with a substantial number of orders, it is unlikely that the production capacity could reach 50,000 to 60,000 vehicles per month.

Therefore, an optimistic forecast suggests that in the remaining three months (October to December), the SU7 and YU7 models will maintain a stable monthly delivery volume of 30,000 vehicles each. For Pengcheng Auto, we optimistically estimate a monthly delivery volume of 30,000 vehicles as well, totaling 60,000 vehicles per month or 180,000 vehicles over the three-month period.

Combined with the 290,000 vehicles delivered in the first nine months, this would bring the total to 470,000 vehicles, achieving 85% of the target. This represents the most optimistic estimate.

If we adopt a more conservative approach and estimate that Pengcheng will deliver 20,000 vehicles per month in the remaining three months, then the total monthly deliveries would be 50,000 vehicles, resulting in a total of 150,000 vehicles delivered over the last three months. This would bring the total to around 440,000 vehicles, achieving 80% of the target.