The global semiconductor industry is undergoing a fresh wave of AI-induced price surges, with the root issue being the supply's struggle to match the explosive growth in demand. This scarcity is no longer a mere cyclical downturn but a fundamental restructuring of the industry.

This assertion is far from overblown. Memory chips, especially DRAM, are essential for the seamless operation of a wide array of electronic gadgets. Presently, the meteoric rise of AI data centers has triggered a dramatic uptick in demand, causing supply-demand disparities to ripple across the entire consumer electronics supply chain.

AI workloads are heavily reliant on memory, with training and inference systems necessitating massive, persistent memory use and extremely high bandwidth. The DRAM requirements for a single AI server have ballooned to eight times those of conventional servers.

Consider NVIDIA's DGX GB300 server cabinet: a single unit consumes up to 20TB of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), coupled with 17TB of DDR memory. These chips, initially destined for phones and computers, are now being rapidly absorbed by AI infrastructure.

The production of advanced HBM is severely constricting traditional DRAM capacity. Executives at Micron highlight that HBM wafer capacity consumption surpasses that of standard DRAM by more than threefold. To cater to the more lucrative HBM orders, manufacturers are redirecting their capacity towards AI.

"I've been advising everyone: if you need any gadget, purchase it now," admits Avril Wu, Senior Research Vice President at TrendForce, who herself preemptively bought an iPhone 17.

Supply-demand imbalances swiftly manifest as price hikes, with manufacturing bearing the brunt. TSMC's latest 2nm process pricing has jumped at least 50% compared to the 3nm process. Memory behemoth Samsung has significantly hiked prices, with DRAM products soaring up to 30% and lead times stretching from one month to over six months.

(Note: The following paragraph is a repetition of a previous one and can be omitted for brevity.) Producing advanced HBM severely squeezes traditional DRAM capacity. Micron executives note that HBM wafer capacity consumption exceeds standard DRAM by over threefold. To fulfill more profitable HBM orders, manufacturers are shifting capacity toward AI.

The memory chip shortage and price escalations are cascading down the supply chain, compelling PC, smartphone, and other consumer electronics manufacturers into tough decisions.

Dell COO Jeff Clarke candidly states that the company has "never witnessed costs escalate so rapidly." He concedes that the cost hikes will ultimately reach consumers, with possible pricing adjustments for certain devices.

Similar cost pressures are evident in the smartphone sector. Xiaomi noted in its earnings reports that component price increases, including memory, have contributed to a decline in smartphone gross margins, with potential product price hikes to partially offset these costs.

Confronted with the looming supply crunch, some manufacturers are adopting defensive measures. Lenovo disclosed that its memory inventory levels are approximately 50% higher than usual. Meanwhile, ASUS is stepping up its stockpiling efforts.

Analysts widely concur that this AI-driven chip shortage will persist in the short term, primarily due to physical and temporal constraints in capacity expansion.

Avril Wu from TrendForce highlights significant bottlenecks in the memory chip industry. By late 2026, capacity expansions at existing chipmaker facilities will reach their limits, while new wafer fabs require years from construction to production.

Expansion plans from leading global memory manufacturers corroborate this. Micron's planned new facility in Idaho is not expected to commence operations until 2027. The company has already announced that its 2026 fiscal year HBM capacity is fully booked, with 2027 orders rapidly filling up.

Strategic deployments by industry giants are intensifying capacity competition. Reports indicate that OpenAI has reserved over one-third of global advanced memory capacity for its "Stargate" data center initiative, further squeezing chip availability for other clients.

Industry leader Micron Technology has issued warnings of a potentially unprecedented global memory chip shortage by 2026. Its CEO anticipates that total industry supply will remain significantly below demand in the foreseeable future.

References:

https://36kr.com/p/3570969190464640

https://www.npr.org/2025/12/28/nx-s1-5656190/ai-chips-memory-prices-ram

https://www.36kr.com/p/3481560825469827