Image source: Visual China

Blue Whale News, July 11 (Reporter Li Zhuoling) - On the streets of Wuhan, simply pulling out a phone and tapping an app brings a car to the designated location. After settling into the back seat, through a transparent partition, one sees that the driver's seat is empty, and the steering wheel is "driving itself"...

Such scenes are gradually becoming the norm for some Wuhan residents. According to a report by Xinhua News Agency in June this year, over 300 self-driving vehicles from Baidu's Apollo Go are operating on Wuhan's streets, from 6 am to 2 am. As previously planned, Baidu aims to deploy 1,000 self-driving vehicles in Wuhan within the year.

Instantly, topics related to Baidu's Apollo Go, Wuhan's self-driving industry, and Robotaxi (self-driving taxis) soared to the top of search trends. However, the arrival of new things is also accompanied by controversies, concerns, and panics, such as whether these self-driving vehicles will "steal the jobs of traditional taxi drivers," whether the technology is safe, whether slow reactions will cause traffic congestion, and who will be responsible in case of accidents.

According to Baidu's previous goals: With the completion of Apollo Go's self-driving vehicle operation network, operating costs will be reduced by 30%, and through continuous optimization of autonomous driving technology and human-vehicle cabin efficiency, service costs will be reduced by 80%. The target is for Apollo Go to achieve a break-even point in Wuhan by the end of 2024 and enter a full profit phase in 2025.

This autonomous driving commercialization story sounds beautiful, but considering recent heated discussions, there are still many issues to be explored and challenges to overcome for the large-scale implementation of companies like Apollo Go.

The "Other Side" of Apollo Go's Arrival

Just as a coin has two sides. While "Apollo Go orders soar" trends on social media and consumers "try out" the low-cost service, traditional taxi and ride-hailing drivers are in a panic: They worry about whether their livelihoods will be taken by machines and whether their trade will be replaced by self-driving technology.

Taking a recent document titled "Wandering Taxis Are on the Brink of Death" that sparked heated industry discussions as an example, the document, attributed to "Wuhan Construction Automobile Passenger Transport Co., Ltd.," mentions that "recently, the prevalence of self-driving ride-hailing vehicles has taken away the jobs of those at the bottom, making it difficult for many wandering taxis to support their families and forcing them to quit the industry." The document also directly states that "Apollo Go is a trial operation and should be controlled within a certain range" and "Technology's original intention is to make human life better, but the reality is making those at the bottom go hungry."

Currently, this online document has not been officially confirmed, but it reveals a corner of the contradiction between technological progress and the replacement of traditional jobs to some extent.

As public debate intensified, China Newsweek reported on July 10 that a relevant person in charge from the Wuhan Municipal Transport Bureau came forward to refute rumors, stating that "the (taxi) industry in Wuhan is relatively stable, and there are many rumors online." According to their introduction, Apollo Go has deployed over 400 self-driving vehicles in Wuhan, not 1,000 as rumored online, and the specific number should be consulted with the Wuhan Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology.

However, according to Baidu's previously set goal of deploying 1,000 self-driving vehicles in Wuhan within the year, its implementation is inevitable, it's just a matter of time. With technological progress being the general trend, is this contradiction truly unsolvable?

Qu Fang, an investment advisor at Wanlian Securities, said in an interview that from a future development perspective, self-driving can replace ride-hailing and taxi services in most areas. "This is not just an industry issue but also involves employment rates and residents' incomes. Currently, there are over 7 million registered ride-hailing drivers in China, and nearly 3 million taxi drivers. From the perspectives of technological development and business models, self-driving ride-hailing is successful, but whether it's worth it to disrupt the entire industry should also be considered."

"Intuitively, every order Apollo Go takes means one less order for taxi and ride-hailing drivers," Zhu Xichan, a professor at Tongji University's School of Automotive Studies, told Blue Whale News. When ride-hailing first emerged, the urban travel market was expanding, and the competition between ride-hailing drivers and taxi drivers was there but not prominent. However, this year, with a large influx of ride-hailing vehicles into the market, the taxi and ride-hailing markets are basically saturated, and the pie can no longer grow bigger. When Apollo Go enters the travel market, it indeed creates a situation where "if you take a bigger bite, I'm sure to go hungry."

"Moreover, taxi drivers get tired, while Apollo Go works tirelessly. In the battle between man and machine, the outcome is inevitably that humans will lose to machines," Zhu Xichan said.

But from another perspective, multiple industry insiders told Blue Whale News that self-driving vehicles are not simply taking away people's jobs. On the surface, they may take away the jobs of taxi and ride-hailing drivers, but they also create jobs in smart vehicle research and development, operation, and maintenance. In the future, for these professionals, transformation may be the solution.

"According to Jevons' paradox, in the labor market, increased efficiency leads to a short-term reduction in jobs, but long-term demand surges will create more jobs," an anonymous insider from a leading autonomous driving company told Blue Whale News. For taxi and ride-hailing practitioners, their professions are also continuously transforming and upgrading with technological and social development.

The insider pointed out that the list of new occupations recently announced by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security includes new roles such as smart connected vehicle adjustment and maintenance technicians and smart connected vehicle testers. At the same time, in addition to these new occupations, in recent years, the national level has vigorously supported the research and development of autonomous driving technology. In the field of autonomous driving applications, industrial demand has also driven innovations in technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing. It has also promoted the upgrading of traditional automotive industries, as well as related industries such as sensors, chips, and software services. The development of these new industrial ecosystems and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries have facilitated the birth and prosperity of more related new occupations.

"While technological development replaces some jobs, it will also inevitably bring new job opportunities," Ding Daoshi, a senior Internet observer who has long focused on the field of autonomous driving, told Blue Whale News. He once discovered a position called "remote cloud chauffeur" based on the driver side when visiting an autonomous driving company. "They sit in a car model-like environment and drive, controlling countless vehicles thousands of miles away. Furthermore, if a self-driving vehicle encounters some problems on the actual road and dares not move forward for safety reasons, a driver can remotely operate it through 5G remote cloud chauffeur services to allow the vehicle to continue driving and resolve these issues."

Zhu Xichan also believes that changes in job positions should be viewed dialectically. "The reduction in driving jobs is replaced by more jobs in smart vehicle research, development, and maintenance. Self-driving vehicles are not creators of social contradictions but drivers of social progress," he said.

He told Blue Whale News that he hopes companies like Baidu will conduct Robotaxi operation and maintenance job training, allowing taxi drivers to find new jobs through training. "Robotaxi operation and maintenance is easier than driving, and if Robotaxi is profitable, the salary for operation and maintenance jobs may not necessarily be lower than that of driving," he said.

Laws and Regulations Need Further Improvement

Apart from the contradiction between technology and employment, a recent video of an Apollo Go collision accident has sparked thoughts on the safety of autonomous driving.

The online video shows that an Apollo Go self-driving taxi had a minor contact with a pedestrian on a Wuhan street. The latter then lay in front of the taxi, and on-site traffic police quickly intervened to handle the situation, causing some degree of traffic congestion.

According to media reports, a relevant person in charge from Baidu subsequently responded: "The accident occurred at the intersection of Yingwu Avenue and Guobo Avenue in Wuhan's Hanyang District, where the vehicle had a minor contact with a pedestrian who ran a red light as the green light turned on. After the accident, our company immediately cooperated with the police and accompanied the pedestrian to the hospital for examination. They are currently under further observation and rest in the hospital." Blue Whale News also interviewed Baidu regarding this accident but had not received a response as of press time.

So, how should we view traffic accidents involving self-driving vehicles when they are approved to drive on roads and become new traffic participants?

"Robotaxi is a new species, and the traffic accidents caused by this new species have become new problems. The current Road Traffic Safety Law does not clearly stipulate the accident liability of self-driving vehicles, which is why the Wuhan Apollo Go accident sparked heated debates and trended on social media," Zhu Xichan told Blue Whale News. Since the product's landing has outpaced regulatory standards and accidents have occurred, it is necessary for the entire society, especially the automotive industry, to discuss the issue of liability division for self-driving vehicle accidents.

To this end, he advocates for "equal rights for humans and vehicles" – "humans" refer to traditional car drivers, "vehicles" refer to self-driving cars, and "rights" refer to road rights. In other words, legally roadworthy self-driving vehicles should be granted the same road rights as human drivers.

"Without equal road rights, these approved self-driving vehicles will become vulnerable groups among road traffic participants. They will fear accidents and become overly conservative, seriously affecting urban traffic efficiency and user experience. Only vehicles with equal road rights can coexist harmoniously and not become traffic congestion creators when entering urban traffic," Zhu Xichan said.

Regarding issues like traffic jams and slow speeds caused by Apollo Go's overly cautious driving, Ding Daoshi also believes that this is because safety is always the top priority in current self-driving technology, and safety is more important than efficiency. To ensure a high level of safety, major manufacturers will set up more system redundancies, preferring to reduce efficiency, stop, brake hard multiple times, and even compromise user experience to prioritize safety.

In this regard, the industry believes that current laws and regulations need further study and improvement.

In Zhu Xichan's view, after dividing the liability for traffic accidents involving self-driving vehicles based on the concept of "equal rights for humans and vehicles," accident compensation should be borne according to the respective liability. Although this can reasonably solve the issue of economic compensation in traffic accidents, the Road Traffic Safety Law stipulates that those responsible for accidents causing death will be held criminally responsible, which requires further discussion.

"If the concept of 'equal rights for humans and vehicles' determines the liability for traffic accidents, what should be done if a self-driving vehicle bears full or primary responsibility for an accident? How should the manufacturers and operators of self-driving vehicles bear criminal responsibility? These are legal gaps that require in-depth study by the legal and automotive industries. Before a conclusion is reached, manufacturers and operators of self-driving vehicles should set the safety goal for self-driving vehicles as 'not causing accidents with primary or full responsibility,' so self-driving vehicles must strictly abide by the Road Traffic Safety Law and not cross any red lines," he said.

Establishing a Commercial Closed Loop Remains Key

Apart from the social controversies and safety issues brought about by implementation, the problem that autonomous driving companies strive to solve throughout their existence is always one of survival – how to profit and form a commercial closed loop?

"During Baidu's ten years of research on autonomous driving, the question we were asked most often was about commercialization," said Chen Zhuo, General Manager of Baidu's Autonomous Driving Business Department. For Robotaxi to achieve commercialization, both revenue and cost sides need to be addressed simultaneously.

Public reports show that on May 15 this year, Baidu Apollo released a new generation of Apollo Go self-driving vehicles, with the overall vehicle cost reduced by 60% compared to the fifth-generation vehicle, lowering the price to 200,000 yuan. Chen Zhuo revealed that Apollo Go's goal is to achieve a break-even point in Wuhan by the end of 2024 and enter a full profit phase in 2025.

While the profit prospects are promising, some industry insiders believe that as more automakers enter the field, based on their large fleet sizes, autonomous driving companies may not have a cost advantage.

Taking Tesla as an example, according to a post on its official Weibo account on June 14, Tesla vehicles equipped with FSD (Full Self-Driving Capability) will soon be able to "go out and make money" on their own.

According to Tesla CEO Elon Musk's vision presented at this year's shareholder meeting: Tesla plans to launch a self-driving taxi service called Robotaxi and expects to officially release the "Full Self-Driving" version on August 8. This service will allow users to book vehicles through a mobile app and specify the number of passengers, similar to existing ride-hailing services.

Musk also stated that car owners can add their Tesla vehicles to the sharing service and earn income by providing rides when they are not in use. He estimates that Tesla vehicles participating in this program could net up to $30,000 per year.

From the perspective of car owner scale, according to official data in June, Tesla has over 6 million global car owners and expects to exceed 7 million by the end of the year.

Obviously, for autonomous driving companies, achieving scale remains a significant challenge. The aforementioned insider from a leading autonomous driving company told Blue Whale News, "Currently, the market share of Robotaxi is still very low, even Apollo Go's market share in Wuhan is not significant and is not yet sufficient to impact the existing market. According to the 'Intelligent and Connected Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0,' it is predicted that by 2030, the market share of highly automated intelligent and connected vehicles will reach 20%. The large-scale implementation of Robotaxi will still take time."

Of course, how much change automakers' entry into the field will bring to the entire industry remains to be seen. For now, expanding the industry market remains crucial.

"We hope that many enterprises will work together to make the (autonomous driving) industry bigger and stronger. Autonomous driving is now at the eve of commercialization. The standards for measuring technological and scale leadership are users, the market, and whether a commercial closed loop can be achieved," Chen Zhuo said.