Source | BohuFN

The wave of large AI models has now reached smart glasses. Following the "hundred models war," the "hundred glasses war" has officially commenced. Recently, around 20 companies, including Baidu, Rokid, INMO, and Emdoor, have unveiled their latest AI glasses products.

AI glasses have become a highly sought-after item, attracting tech giants like ByteDance and Alibaba, consumer electronics firms such as Apple and Xiaomi, and even Luo Yonghao's Thin Red Line Technology, which has expressed interest in venturing into the AI glasses market. The capital market is also actively participating, fueling market enthusiasm.

Over the past two years, large AI models have been integrated into various smart terminals, including mobile phones, computers, cars, and home appliances. However, AI glasses stand out as the sole product that has garnered the collective interest of major companies, technology innovators, and investors.

With numerous players entering the market, the primary challenge for the "hundred glasses war" is whether AI glasses can capitalize on this trend and propel the smart wearable market into its "iPhone moment."

01 Why the Sudden Popularity of AI Glasses?

A CITIC Securities research report predicts that global shipments of AI glasses will reach approximately 3 million pairs in 2024 and about 10 million pairs in 2025. IDC, another research firm, states that smart rings and glasses without displays will become the most intriguing product categories in global wearables in the coming quarters.

Yet, to many consumers, the sudden popularity of AI glasses is perplexing. Just over a year ago, the consumer market was relatively indifferent towards smart wearable products.

Apple launched its Vision Pro in June 2023, which was once hailed as a revolutionary smart interaction method, but sales have been sluggish, and it was reportedly discontinued at the end of 2024.

Earlier, devices like META's Quest and ByteDance's Pico gained popularity for a while but couldn't escape the fate of price cuts and promotions. ByteDance even nearly disbanded its entire Pico team, retaining only the hardware division.

Smart wearables are akin to a "tough nut to crack." Manufacturers can only break through if they strike a balance between wearing comfort, content engagement, and price thresholds. However, this breakthrough was achieved by non-traditional technology companies.

In September 2023, Meta collaborated with the traditional eyewear brand "Ray-Ban" to create "Ray-Ban Meta" smart glasses. Compared to the 2021 first-generation version, Ray-Ban Meta significantly improved its camera and audio functions and added voice control capabilities.

Within just one year of its launch, Ray-Ban Meta sold over 1 million units. Guojin Securities predicts that when Ray-Ban Meta's sales network expands globally, its annual sales potential could surge to over 6 million units.

The consumer market's avid pursuit of AI glasses quickly attracted multiple players, primarily including consumer electronics firms represented by Xiaomi and Meizu, tech giants like Baidu, ByteDance, and Alibaba, and innovative companies such as Rokid and LeTV.

In April last year, Ray-Ban launched a new generation of Ray-Ban Meta equipped with AI functions. Besides the smart assistant, it recently introduced two new features: Live AI and real-time translation. Live AI allows real-time interaction with Meta AI.

Baidu also seized the opportunity to launch Baidu AI glasses in November last year. Besides basic functions like audio and photography, it serves as a versatile AI assistant, supporting AI tour guides, scene recognition, real-time translation, intelligent analysis, and more.

In December last year, Star Realm and Tencent Games jointly launched a customized AR smart glasses model, StarV x DNF, focusing on immersive movie watching and gaming experiences. Additionally, it's rumored that Xiaomi is expected to release its product in the second quarter of 2025, which will directly compete with Ray-Ban Meta.

Apart from these major companies, some innovative firms have also been very active. In January this year, LeTV announced a strategic partnership with Alibaba Cloud. According to LeTV CEO Li Hongwei, LeTV and Alibaba will prioritize exploring "killer applications" and aim to make deeper investments in AI+AR glasses in the future, rather than merely placing general large models on glasses.

Rokid launched the AI+AR glasses Rokid Glasses in collaboration with BOLON Eyewear in November last year. It integrates Alibaba Cloud's Tongyi Qianwen large model's algorithmic capabilities and connects to the AI life assistant "Zhi Xiaobao," providing richer content and applications in scenarios like office work, entertainment, shopping, and education.

After several years of development, smart glasses have evolved from simple audio glasses to video glasses, adding camera modules and some AI functions on top of audio capabilities, forming the prototype of AI glasses.

However, with more technology players entering the market, smart glasses are now also heading towards the "AI+AR" direction. Besides audio and video, screens have been incorporated, allowing AI and AR to integrate more deeply and explore new forms of human-computer interaction.

For instance, Rokid Glasses achieve "transparent lenses" + "fashionable appearance" + "built-in display." They can perform real-time translation and navigation through AI visual perception, akin to super agents in science fiction movies who can determine the best escape route with just a pair of glasses.

02 As AI Glasses Take Off, the Supply Chain Moves First

It must be noted that before this wave of AI glasses "hit," smart glasses languished on the sidelines for a long time. According to Qichacha data, there are currently over 5,000 smart glasses-related enterprises in China, and 40% of them have been established for more than 10 years.

The popularity of AI glasses is primarily due to consumers experiencing more innovative features supported by large AI models. However, the explosion of AI glasses also required the right timing, place, and people.

On one hand, the collaboration between Ray-Ban and META introduced new ideas to smart glasses. AI glasses addressed the pain point of past smart wearables being bulky by integrating AI interaction into more frequently used, lightweight, and portable glasses, providing a more natural and comfortable interaction experience.

On the other hand, AI glasses offer higher scalability and can fulfill multi-dimensional needs like seeing, hearing, speaking, and perception. Brands like Baidu and Rokid share the view that "glasses are the best landing scenario for AI."

However, the development of the smart glasses industry over the past decade laid the groundwork for promoting consumer awareness of AI glasses and nurturing a mature industrial chain. With fertile soil, AI glasses could quickly take off.

For instance, Google launched Google Glass in 2012, which, in addition to AI functions, also featured search, navigation, photography, and phone call capabilities. However, it faced criticism after its launch, mainly due to its high price and inferior experience compared to mobile phones.

To enhance product functions while keeping the price down, the supply chain is crucial. Currently, as the AI glasses supply chain gradually matures, chips, displays, sensors, batteries, and other components have reached a stage where devices can be further miniaturized, paving the way for their rapid development.

Taking the "microdisplay," the core component of AI+AR glasses, as an example, it is responsible for clearly presenting images, videos, and other information to users, often utilizing advanced Micro-OLED or Micro-LED technology.

Data shows that Chinese manufacturers account for 72% of global production capacity in the LCD field and 51% in the OLED field. In September last year, the U.S. Congress even sent a letter to the U.S. Secretary of Defense, stating that if no measures are taken, AR and VR display technology will be constrained by China.

Moreover, the production and assembly of components like cameras, microphones, batteries, and processors are relatively straightforward for domestic supply chain manufacturers, resulting in a relatively complete AI glasses industrial chain.

In terms of lenses and optical waveguides, there are Crystal Opto-Electronic and Sunny Optical Technology; in terms of chips, there are Maxsun Technology and Rockchip; in terms of sensors, their image sensor products have small sizes and low power consumption, which can better meet the needs of AI glasses; in terms of manufacturing, it's the strength of companies like GoerTek and Luxshare Precision, which are part of the "Apple supply chain" and "Huawei supply chain."

As AI glasses gradually penetrate the consumer market, they can also drive further growth in the supply chain, meaning the price of AI glasses is expected to continue to decline. Simultaneously, upstream manufacturers fear missing out on the AI glasses trend and will further accelerate technological innovation and improve supply chain efficiency in the future.

Apart from advancements in the hardware field, the rapid development of large AI model technology has also boosted capabilities like multimodal, reinforcement learning, speech recognition, and semantic understanding, bringing broader imagination and application scenarios to AI glasses.

For example, Rokid Glasses have integrated the DingTalk application, allowing users to view calendar reminders and join video meetings through the glasses, creating a new "cyber office" scenario. Additionally, Baidu AI glasses are attempting to gain a foothold in the education sector, enabling functions like walking and asking questions, calorie recognition, and object encyclopedias.

However, industry insiders believe that the hardware threshold for AI glasses is not high, and many components are already mature modules. In contrast, they have higher requirements for software innovation. The question remains: what kind of intelligent experience can current large AI models bring to smart glasses, and does this meet the real needs of consumers?

03 "The Next Generation of Super Hardware" is Still on the Horizon

According to Guojin Securities' industry chain research, there are at least 50 teams in China working on AI glasses. However, at present, AI glasses are still quite far from becoming "the next generation of super hardware."

Firstly, in terms of smart interaction scenarios, AI glasses still lag behind smartphones. Most current AI glasses can perform functions like translation, tour guiding, searching, and smart assistant, but there isn't much differentiation, and the applications are relatively simple.

Moreover, more users say they buy AI glasses primarily for their photography functions. Compared to AI functions, they care more about whether the glasses look good. Therefore, whether AI glasses manufacturers can uncover more AI selling points leveraging large AI models will be the focus of future product competition.

Secondly, if AI glasses manufacturers want to add "more fun" functions, they must further consider the "impossible triangle" of battery life, weight, and computing power.

Currently, most AI glasses don't come with screens. Functions like translation and navigation on AI glasses are far inferior to those on smartphones, but their weight (around 45 grams) is already much heavier than traditional glasses (20-30 grams). If the next generation of products generally adds screens, their weight will further impact the wearing experience.

Additionally, compared to smartphones, AI glasses can only maintain a battery life of about 3 hours when continuously shooting. As AI glasses gain more functions and consume more energy in the future, the battery life issue will become more prominent.

Given these contradictions, current smart glasses are generally AI glasses without screens. Comparatively, AI+AR glasses with micro-displays, which offer more "sci-fi"-like usage scenarios and experiences, are still constrained by factors like the "impossible triangle" and a lack of virtual application scenarios, making them unable to become mainstream at present.

However, Zuckerberg once said that two forms of smart glasses will coexist in the future market: holographic glasses that pursue the ultimate experience and simple glasses that focus on cost-effectiveness and are optimized for AI experiences.

For now, AI glasses will be the focus at this stage. But in the long run, AI+AR glasses capable of image interaction will be the ultimate form of smart glasses. Various players are entering the fray early, hoping to secure their "position" and grab tickets to enter the AR glasses market.

Nevertheless, whether it's AI glasses or AI+AR glasses, commercialization remains the biggest challenge for players. Firstly, the maturity of software and hardware still needs to be refined to optimize experiences like battery life and weight.

For example, Shargeek Technology proposed an extended battery life solution for AI glasses at the end of last year. Its AI glasses extension ring allows users to charge and wear them simultaneously and can also reverse charge hardware products like mobile phones.

Secondly, the majority of current AI applications in AI glasses rely heavily on the support of large models from major companies. This dependence, to a certain extent, fosters a faster integration between leading brands and innovative counterparts. For instance, Rokid incorporates Tongyi Qianwen, while Shargeek opts to grant access to numerous leading large model manufacturers.

Moving forward, the AI glasses industry is poised to witness its first wave of competition. Those who can pioneer in brand building and integrate innovative application experiences will have a stronger chance of securing a place at the table, thereby advancing the development of the AI glasses application ecosystem.

Furthermore, before AI glasses advance towards commercialization, it is imperative to address concerns such as privacy protection and data security. Only once these issues are comprehensively resolved will large-scale commercial applications become a reality.

Industry experts widely agree that 2025 will mark the inaugural year for AI glasses, and the accelerated entry of major players further corroborates the imminent explosion of this industry.

While the current AI glasses market brims with imagination, for players aiming to navigate the path of smart glasses, AI glasses represent merely the first step. Before "the next generation of super hardware" takes concrete shape, the market may not offer ample seats, and the window of opportunity for new players is fleeting. It won't be long before we witness who emerges as the frontrunner.

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