Only five years left.

Have you ever thought that new energy vehicles might one day replace gasoline-powered vehicles?

According to data released by the China Passenger Car Association, 1.72 million passenger vehicles were sold in the national passenger vehicle market in July, with 878,000 of those being new energy vehicles, resulting in a retail penetration rate of 51.1%, exceeding 50% for the first time monthly. This compares to just 32.8% in January.

Although new energy vehicles are becoming increasingly popular, this alone is not justification for banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles. The relatively slow charging speeds and insufficient charging infrastructure of new energy vehicles are significant drawbacks compared to traditional gasoline-powered vehicles. Furthermore, despite the European Union's announcement last year of a ban on the sale of new internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035, it has since revised its stance, with the latest draft proposal allowing for the use of zero-emission alternative fuels after 2025.

While China has not set a definitive timeline for banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles, Hainan's Department of Industry and Information Technology recently issued an inquiry letter for a legislative consultation service project related to the "Regulations on Promoting the Development of New Energy Vehicles in Hainan Free Trade Port." The letter explicitly stated the "orderly promotion of phasing out the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles by 2030" and plans to "initiate legislative research on regulations to promote the development of new energy vehicles in Hainan Free Trade Port."

In fact, the news that "Hainan will ban the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles by 2030" is not new. As early as March 2019, the "Hainan Clean Energy Vehicle Development Plan" proposed that Hainan should ban the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles by 2030 and strive to achieve international benchmark levels of clean energy vehicle adoption throughout the province.

It is evident that the primary driving force behind promoting a "ban on gasoline-powered vehicles" in Hainan is environmental protection. As a major tourism province, Hainan receives an increasing number of domestic and foreign tourists each year, exceeding 90 million in 2023. To meet the growing transportation needs of these tourists, more resources must be allocated to new energy vehicles to ensure proper disposal of environmental concerns.

Therefore, while other automakers and relevant departments have gradually pushed back their timelines for banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles to accommodate the market, Hainan's stance has remained resolute. Banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles is not an easy task, even for Hainan, which has been vigorously promoting new energy vehicles for five years.

The primary obstacle to a "ban on gasoline-powered vehicles" lies in the charging infrastructure.

Based on online sentiment, the primary concerns regarding a ban on gasoline-powered vehicles are insufficient charging facilities, battery safety, and range anxiety associated with new energy vehicles.

Current ultra-fast charging technology enables full charging of electric vehicles within 20 minutes. In comparison, traditional gasoline filling stations can complete the entire process of filling up, payment, and issuing a receipt in just a few minutes, leaving time for additional errands.

Although ultra-fast charging has significantly improved charging speeds compared to the past, when it took around 30 minutes to charge from 30% to 80%, it still falls short of the convenience offered by gasoline filling stations. Theoretically, by vigorously constructing ultra-fast charging stations, expanding charging infrastructure, and reducing charging wait times through technological advancements, a ban on gasoline-powered vehicles becomes a possibility.

However, for new energy vehicle owners in Hainan, the breadth and density of the charging network may be more critical than charging speed. Data shows that 167,504 passenger vehicles were sold in Hainan in 2023, with BYD and Aion as the top-selling brands, followed by joint ventures such as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan, and finally higher-priced new energy brands like Tesla and NIO.

A closer look at vehicle sales data in Hainan's major cities reveals that Haikou performs best in terms of automobile sales. Data indicates that ten models, primarily family-oriented vehicles like the BYD Song PLUS EV, Yuan PLUS, Qin PLUS, and Nissan Sylphy, as well as mid-to-high-end models like the Toyota RAV4, Tesla Model Y, and Toyota Avalon, have sold over 1,000 units in the past six months in Haikou, while no other city has achieved similar sales figures.

From a technical perspective, the fast-charging capabilities of the aforementioned popular new energy vehicles are not particularly impressive. The Model Y boasts the highest fast-charging power at up to 250kW, while the BYD Yuan PLUS can charge at up to 140-150kW. However, models like the BYD Song PLUS EV and Qin PLUS EV, which account for a significant portion of sales, have fast-charging powers not exceeding 100kW, typically requiring about half an hour to charge from 30% to 80% capacity. To fully charge these vehicles, consumers can expect to wait for at least an hour.

Due to cost constraints, automakers are unlikely to incorporate ultra-fast charging technology into vehicles priced below 200,000 yuan, suggesting that improving the charging experience solely through faster charging speeds has technical limitations. According to official data, as of the end of November 2023, Hainan had a ratio of approximately 2.5 charging stations to 1 new energy vehicle, with a total of 116,800 charging stations installed. This ratio indicates that the infrastructure already meets the demand for electric vehicle travel throughout the island, with plans to maintain the ratio below 2.5:1 to address the issue of finding charging stations.

Having visited Hainan, I noticed that in areas with high foot traffic such as Sanya and Haikou, most operating vehicles are new energy vehicles, and maintaining a ratio of 2.5 charging stations to 1 vehicle may suffice for island-wide electric vehicle travel. However, given the time-sensitive nature of operating vehicles, drivers tend to recharge their vehicles during specific hours.

My concern is whether the charging stations in these high-pressure operating areas can meet the energy replenishment needs of most drivers at any given moment. Therefore, in addition to ensuring a low ratio of charging stations to vehicles, it is essential to increase the density of charging stations in some areas.

Regarding battery safety and range anxiety, automakers must continue their efforts to reduce the risk of accidents involving new energy vehicles and gradually change consumers' stereotypes.

Comprehensive "ban on gasoline-powered vehicles" is challenging but not impossible.

Hainan's resolute stance on banning gasoline-powered vehicles and robust charging infrastructure planning make it a viable option for implementing such a ban. Some netizens speculate that if Hainan has already outlined such plans, will other regions in China follow suit and implement similar "ban on gasoline-powered vehicles" or "restriction on gasoline-powered vehicles" policies?

I understand that the "Research on the Exit Timeline of Traditional Gasoline-Powered Vehicles in China" (hereinafter referred to as "The Research"), released in 2019, analyzed the exit timeline for gasoline-powered vehicles and proposed that traditional gasoline-powered vehicles could be phased out by 2050, with private cars in some first-tier cities transitioning to new energy vehicles by 2030.

The year 2050 is 15 years later than the EU's proposed timeline for banning gasoline-powered vehicles, highlighting the numerous challenges and difficulties that must be overcome to achieve a ban. These challenges include inadequate and unevenly distributed charging infrastructure, inconsistent technical standards, and concerns about the technology and safety of new energy products, among others. I will not elaborate further on these issues here as they require substantial time and effort to address.

Considering economic benefits and sustainable development, new energy vehicles are undoubtedly the future trend in the automotive market. While "The Research" does not have mandatory implications, it provides valuable reference for relevant departments and automakers, and some corresponding policies have already been implemented.

"The Research" suggests a phased approach based on regions, vehicle types, and stages. Initially, first-tier cities should take the lead in achieving the goal of banning gasoline-powered vehicles. Subsequently, gasoline-powered vehicles in sectors such as buses, taxis, ride-hailing services, and environmental sanitation should be phased out. Finally, private cars will follow suit.

As a result, many cities have already embarked on the "full electrification" of buses and taxis. For instance, Taiyuan achieved full electrification of its taxi fleet in 2016, while Shenzhen completed the electrification of its taxi and bus fleets in 2019. Guangzhou and Beijing also have corresponding plans in place, gradually phasing out gasoline-powered vehicles from public transportation.

Meanwhile, new energy has become the strategic focus of almost all automakers. Capital-intensive groups have launched new energy brands that emphasize affordability and premium quality. BYD has taken a more aggressive approach, becoming the world's first automaker to officially cease production of gasoline-powered vehicles. Currently, domestic brands that have announced timelines for banning gasoline-powered vehicles include Beijing Automotive Group, Changan Automobile, and Great Wall Motor's Haval brand.

Whether it's policies, automakers, or relevant departments, the transition towards electrification is underway, and the phasing out of gasoline-powered vehicles is simply a matter of time. Of course, achieving a comprehensive "ban on gasoline-powered vehicles" remains an ambitious goal, given ongoing concerns about charging infrastructure and new energy product safety. Our concerns are justified, and the louder the voices of dissent, the more pressure it puts on automakers to produce higher-quality products and improve charging infrastructure.

Only then will the discussion about "new energy vehicles replacing gasoline-powered vehicles" become meaningful.

Source: Leitech