Offense is the best defense.

Since the iPhone became dominant globally, Apple's autumn press conference has been a day that many smartphone manufacturers try to avoid.

Apple's autumn press conferences are typically scheduled in September, prompting other manufacturers to hold their own events within the following three months.

In the past two years, Huawei has chosen to directly compete with Apple on the same day on three occasions:

On October 31, 2023, while Apple unveiled the M3 series chip, Huawei released the nova 11 SE phone, with different product lines on the same day;

On May 7, 2024, as Apple announced the new iPad Pro and M4 series chip, Huawei released the MatePad 11.5-inch S tablet, the same product line on the same day;

And on September 10, 2024, Apple will undoubtedly unveil the iPhone 16 series flagship phones, while Huawei will also release the world's first triple-folding flagship phone, the Mate XT. This time, it's a head-to-head battle on the same day, in the same core flagship product line.

Image source: Huawei Mate XT promotional video

And the new product is indeed attractive in its competition with Apple: one day after opening reservations, the number of reservations has exceeded 2 million.

Why does Huawei keep taking on Apple on the same day? According to our analysis, there are three main reasons:

01

Brand Alignment

There are many brand pairs in the world: McDonald's and KFC, Nike and Adidas, Microsoft and Google... The story of two strong competitors is fascinating and provides potential cognitive cues to consumers: the products of these two brands are on the same level.

In 2019, Huawei surpassed Apple in global sales, with over 240 million units, second only to Samsung.

In 2020, Huawei's self-developed Kirin 9000 was widely regarded as being able to compete with contemporary Apple and Qualcomm flagship products.

However, due to well-known reasons, Huawei was throttled and took four years to regroup before announcing the return of the Huawei Mate60 series last year.

Not only in the mobile phone business, but also through innovative businesses such as smart homes and autonomous driving, Huawei needs Yu Chengdong to repeatedly declare "far ahead" to strengthen its image as a global technology giant.

According to unconfirmed reports, the Huawei Mate60 series was originally planned to be released on the same day as Apple's iPhone 15 series, but due to some reasons, it was suddenly launched early in August.

However, its popularity gave Huawei enough courage to engage in these three subsequent battles with Apple, each more intense than the last.

According to IDC data, in the first half of 2024, Huawei ranked first in China's smartphone market with a 17.5% market share, while last year Huawei was not even in the top five.

In contrast, Apple was tied with OPPO for third place in the first quarter but fell out of the top five in the second quarter.

Image source: IDC

One is to advance or regress, and the other is to regain lost ground. By actively aligning with Apple, Huawei's brand value can continue to return and improve in the Chinese market, especially enhancing the mindset of high-end market consumers.

Beyond Apple, Huawei is worth considering.

02

Product Differentiation

When releasing similar high-end products on the same day, consumers and media will pay close attention to the actual experience of both, which is precisely the effect Huawei wants to achieve.

After all, rumors suggest that the Apple iPhone 16 series will only have minor changes in size and the addition of a camera button, with the main feature being Apple Intelligence, which may not even be available in China. It can be said to be Apple's usual "squeezing toothpaste" upgrade.

In contrast, the Huawei Mate XT is the world's first mass-produced triple-folding phone. Although its configuration and price have not been revealed, just a few official images have generated significant interest.

The currently popular horizontal and vertical folding phones are simple two-folds, while the addition of a third fold makes the area and ratio distinction between folded and unfolded states more pronounced. The unfolded state undoubtedly offers an upgraded audio-visual, gaming, and multi-tasking experience. Additionally, it is believed to enable an "L"-shaped desktop placement, freeing up hands for operation.

Furthermore, triple-folding phones pose higher technological demands on manufacturers. How to place the battery and chip under triple folds while ensuring a balance of heat dissipation, performance, and battery life? How to ensure that the size and weight do not become excessive? How to optimize the system experience under triple folds?

It is Huawei's accumulated brand reputation that has sparked such large-scale online and offline blind reservations for this phone, even though its configuration is almost entirely undisclosed and its price is unknown.

Image source: Huawei Mall screenshot

Of course, scalpers have also set their sights on this model, as previous Huawei folding phones have seen miracles of price increases of tens of thousands in their early stages. According to LeiPhone, the initial stock of Huawei Mate XT is only around 40,000 units, compared to over 2 million reservations and the upcoming year-end gift-giving season, making it highly unlikely that it will be available at its original price initially.

Currently, on platforms like Xianyu and Depop, many stores claiming to have first-batch shipments have priced the Huawei Mate XT at tens of thousands of yuan. On September 10, it remains to be seen if Apple will be completely overshadowed by Huawei in terms of publicity.

03

Demonstrating Innovation

Beyond brand image and product competitiveness, it is even more important that Huawei's active alignment with Apple showcases the rapid improvement in self-research capabilities within its own and the entire domestic supply chain industry.

Five years ago, when ZTE and Huawei were throttled, the seemingly prosperous domestic chip industry suffered a severe blow, drawing more attention to the country's technological self-research capabilities.

After withstanding pressure, Huawei has not only miraculously achieved self-developed and self-produced core SOC capabilities for smartphones after four years but has also unlocked new skills, rapidly advancing its intelligent driving capabilities to the first tier through the HarmonyOS Smart Travel Alliance.

And this time, as the world's first mass-produced triple-folding phone, the technology behind it is not solely reliant on Huawei but also involves numerous domestic supply chain companies.

Image source: Huawei Mate XT promotional video

In the "Folding Screen Concept Stocks" section of the Eastmoney APP, Cosun Technology has seen ten consecutive trading sessions of gains, while Kaisheng Technology has seen trading halts due to price limits, with Dongmu, Visionox, and BOE also seeing follow-up gains.

It is reported that Kaisheng Technology is the first domestic supplier to cover the entire production chain of ultra-thin flexible glass, from high-strength glass to ultra-thin processing to high-precision post-processing. According to its official website, it can independently develop the world's only fully automated 30-micron flexible foldable glass and has successfully integrated it into the supply chain of mainstream manufacturers.

There are rumors that Kaisheng Technology is the sole and exclusive supplier for Huawei's UTG project. When asked about this by the Times Weekly, the company's board secretary's office responded, "I'm not sure."

Kaisheng Technology has also issued a risk warning notice, stating that the revenue generated by its ultra-thin flexible glass (UTG) so far accounts for less than 3% of its overall revenue and is expected to contribute limitedly to its overall revenue in 2024.

Cosun Technology, which has seen ten consecutive trading sessions of gains, can produce key hinge components for folding phones. As early as November 2022, in its investor relations activity records, Cosun Technology stated that it had begun layout plans for the folding screen business three years ago, primarily supplying Huawei.

Cosun Technology has also issued a risk warning, stating that its folding screen hinge assembly business has a single customer and that the revenue generated from this business is expected to account for less than 1% of its 2024 annual revenue.

Additionally, in terms of the crucial flexible display, BOE Chairman Chen Yanshun recently disclosed that while they have known about the Extraordinary Master (a possible reference to a specific product or technology that is unclear in the context) for a long time, there is a strict confidentiality agreement in place. He also stated that BOE's joint research and development with Huawei's products are unprecedentedly closely linked, and whether or not they are involved and how they are involved will be revealed after the press conference.

After the release of the Huawei Mate XT, it is believed that the triple-folding screen market will explode further, with rumors of other manufacturers such as Samsung, Honor, Xiaomi, and Transsion also working on related products.

In contrast, Apple has indeed shown a lack of innovation in recent years, not only scrapping its automotive project but also failing to officially release a folding phone.

Image source: Apple's official website

According to Counterpoint Research data, global shipments of folding smartphones increased by 48% year-on-year in the second quarter, with China accounting for more than half of the total shipments.

In Western Europe, Honor surpassed Samsung for the first time to take the top spot, with global folding screen shipments increasing by 455% year-on-year.

According to IDC data, approximately 7 million folding phones were shipped in China in 2023, an increase of 114.5% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive year of over 100% year-on-year growth.

Can folding screens compete with Apple's flagship phones? Perhaps the real competition will come in the form of volume shipments in the future.