Huawei's tri-fold screen phone hasn't even been released yet, but jokes about it are already flooding the internet. There are those who try to discourage others:

And those who complain:

There are even those with a sci-fi twist:

And those who take matters into their own hands:

It's not that netizens are being imaginative; it's just that Huawei has not only come up with a tri-fold design but also chosen to hold their product launch on the same day as Apple's. Typically, phone manufacturers avoid clashing with Apple's launch dates, and in earlier years, September was exclusively reserved for Apple.

But Huawei clearly has no intention of backing down. After officially announcing pre-orders for the new product on September 7th, Huawei Mall reported over 2 million reservations within 24 hours, solidifying its reputation as an "electronic version of Moutai" and a "financial product."

On some second-hand platforms, some people have even listed resale prices of 30,000 or 100,000 yuan, while others plan to queue up at retail stores overnight to make a quick profit, reminiscent of the phrase "I'm betting my youth on tomorrow."

Rumors about Huawei's tri-fold phone first surfaced in March this year, when the National Intellectual Property Administration published a patent application by Huawei for a "folding screen device" filed on February 21st, 2023.

The patent reveals a tri-fold design with multiple shells of varying thicknesses, reducing the device's thickness in its folded state and making it lighter, thereby enhancing the user's grip experience.

Unlike the current mainstream horizontal and vertical folding designs, analysts saw the tri-fold design as having the potential to further boost Huawei's competitiveness in the high-end market.

In fact, Huawei already accounted for over half (50.3%) of the folding screen market share last year and an impressive 65.6% in the ultra-high-end segment (>¥10,000). According to iResearch Consulting, smartphone shipments in China totaled approximately 293 million units in 2023, representing no year-over-year change.

However, the high-end smartphone segment (>$600) bucked the trend with a 13.7% year-over-year increase in shipments to 72 million units, while folding screen phone shipments surged 69.1% to 6.1 million units. Since the launch of the first folding screen phone in 2019, China's folding screen phone market has grown at an annual rate exceeding 100% for four consecutive years.

iResearch predicts that folding screen phones have entered a rapid penetration phase in the high-end market, with the penetration rate expected to increase from 9% in 2023 to 20% in 2025.

Despite high year-over-year growth and surging penetration rates, folding screen phones remain niche products. Apart from their status symbol and unaffordable prices, they haven't offered consumers much in the way of surprises, and some users still complain about high after-sales prices.

On Weibo, the hashtag "#Tri-fold may be Huawei's most expensive phone ever#" garnered over 20 million views even before the launch. Some tech bloggers stated they would buy it if priced at 20,000 yuan but would wait if it cost 50,000 or 100,000 yuan.

Price remains the primary barrier preventing folding screen phones from reaching the mass market. Shanghai Securities predicted in March that Huawei's first tri-fold phone sales could be comparable to those of the Mate X, Huawei's first folding screen phone, which sold around 100,000 units per month. However, considering the higher price of the tri-fold phone (estimated at around 20,000 yuan compared to the Mate X's 17,000 yuan), sales in 2024 are projected to be 70-90% of Mate X sales, or 420,000-540,000 units.

Of course, sales aren't the primary goal for folding screen phones. Previous attempts by phone manufacturers to boost sales with lower-priced foldable phones have failed. The reason is that these smaller, more affordable foldables don't contribute much profit and struggle to gain traction in sales due to their prices being similar to flagship smartphones.

Large foldables, on the other hand, are synonymous with manufacturers' high-end technology. By setting a higher price point, they can drive mainstream models into the high-end market, which is precisely what manufacturers desire.

In other words, although Huawei chose to hold their launch event on the same day as Apple, the two companies' new products are not direct competitors. The former targets a smaller user base with limited shipments, while Apple's iPhone 16 aims for a broader consumer base.

The real showdown between Huawei and Apple will be with the yet-to-be-released Mate 70 series. Huawei is rumored to be hyping up the Mate 70 during their launch event, potentially retaining some potential iPhone 16 buyers.

Whether the tri-fold design will become a trend in the high-end market remains to be seen. After Huawei's patent disclosure, there was little movement from other manufacturers for a long time. However, as the September launch event approached, rumors about tri-fold phones began to proliferate.

First, Honor CEO Zhao Ming revealed in July that Honor had completed the technical aspects of the tri-fold design and would determine the commercialization timeline based on consumer demand, stating that the tri-fold wasn't a technical issue but a commercial choice.

Then, in August, "King of Africa" Transsion Holdings unveiled the Tecno Phantom Ultimate 2, a tri-fold concept phone, followed by OPPO Find series head Zhou Yibao announcing on Weibo that OPPO had developed numerous tri-fold concepts and prototypes the previous year.

According to tech blogger Smart Pikachu, Xiaomi has also started working on a tri-fold design but is still in the technical exploration and commercial observation stage, waiting for market feedback before deciding on commercialization.

Former Meizu executive Li Nan also chimed in, implying that the technical challenges of the tri-fold design weren't the main issue and that other manufacturers could even make thinner designs than Huawei's but lacked the courage to mass-produce them.

However, it's important to note that according to IDC data, folding screen phone prices are trending downwards. In 2023, the price range of folding screen phones in the Chinese market continued to decline, with models priced between 600 and 800 USD accounting for 14.1% of shipments, falling into the mainstream flagship smartphone range.

Nonetheless, manufacturers may not rush to make folding screen phones accessible to the masses just yet. Until the next technology emerges to support high-end models, folding screens remain an effective way to increase prices.

Therefore, manufacturers are finding ways to extend the "high-end representative cycle" of folding screens. Huawei has mass-produced tri-fold phones in addition to horizontal and vertical folding designs. Google equipped the Pixel 9 Pro Fold series, its second-generation large folding screen phone, with a custom Google Tensor G4 chip and pre-installed Google AI.

As for Apple, it filed a patent in May this year for a "folding device hinge," indicating that it may be developing an innovative hinge solution enabling bi-directional folding, potentially for future iPhone or iPad products.

Based on Omdia's previous roadmap predictions for Apple's iPhone and iPad display panels, Apple is expected to launch a folding iPhone in 2026, with a folding iPad product also anticipated in the future. If Apple does release folding iPhone/iPad series products, shipments of folding devices and the market space for the industry chain may see even greater growth.

Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information or information provided by interviewees, but Decode and the author do not guarantee the completeness or accuracy of such information. Under no circumstances shall the information or opinions expressed herein constitute investment advice to anyone.