Author | Sun Pengyue

Editor | Dafeng

Apple's annual 'iPhone Spring Festival Gala' is gradually being usurped by Huawei.

At 1:00 AM Beijing time on September 10, Apple held its fall event to unveil the iPhone 16 and other major new products. Later that same day, at 2:30 PM, Huawei also held its Extraordinary Brand Ceremony, introducing the new flagship Huawei Mate XT Extraordinary Master.

Currently, Huawei's Mate XT, with the advantage of being the home team, is generating significantly more buzz than Apple's iPhone 16. As of 1:00 PM on September 13, reservations for Huawei's tri-fold phone, the Mate XT Extraordinary Master, have reached 5.679 million.

Market validation has proven that only Huawei can withstand Apple's competition.

01

The Myth of the 'Apple Spring Festival Gala' Shattered

In the digital 3C industry, every September has traditionally been dedicated to Apple's 'iPhone Month,' with the latest iPhone series being released during this time. This has led global Apple fans to regard it as the 'Apple Spring Festival Gala.'

Since the release of the iPhone 4 in 2010, mobile phone brands around the world have feared September like a tiger, avoiding it at all costs. However, in September 2023, Huawei sounded the charge to counterattack Apple.

Last September, both Huawei and Apple released their flagship phones, the Mate 60 series and iPhone 15 series, on the same day.

Not only did they release new products on the same day, but Huawei also taught Apple a lesson with its 'hardcore black technology.'

The Mate 60 series introduced ceramic 'Sky Red Glaze' technology, basalt tempered Kunlun glass, basalt tempered scratch-resistant technology, and satellite communication technology. The Mate 60 series, packed with black technology, posed a significant challenge to Apple, which is known for its incremental updates.

Since its release, the Huawei Mate 60 series has been a best-seller in the market. By the end of June 2024, sales of all versions of the Mate 60 series had surpassed 10 million units, with the Mate 60 Pro outselling its competitors by a significant margin, achieving a dominant lead.

According to IDC's tracking report, Huawei ranked first in China's smartphone market shipments in the first half of 2024 with a market share of 17.5%, earning the title of 'Half-Year Champion 2024.'

Huawei Mate 60

The decades-old myth of the 'Apple Spring Festival Gala' has been shattered. The successful 'sniping' of Apple by Huawei resulted in a sharp decline in sales of the iPhone 15 series. According to Canalys, in the second quarter of 2024, Apple fell to sixth place in shipments, with its market share decreasing by 2% year-on-year to 14%.

For Huawei, this is a gratifying 'revenge.'

Huawei once dominated the smartphone market, shipping an astonishing 240 million phones globally in 2019, ranking first in domestic market share and second globally.

However, following sanctions, Huawei suffered from a 'chip shortage,' plunging into a three-year decline. From a peak of 240 million units to a low of 28 million, Huawei ceded its high-end market to Apple.

Now, three years later, Huawei has returned to its peak and dealt a severe blow to Apple during its strongest month.

It must be said that Huawei's story reads like the protagonist of an exhilarating novel.

02

From AI to Foldable Phones

Both the Huawei Mate XT and iPhone 16 series represent two directions in high-end smartphones: foldable phones and AI phones.

Let's start with foldable phones.

Currently, the most expensive models from Android brands are typically foldable phones. In terms of product structure, foldable phones have surpassed other models.

The reason for the popularity of foldable phones among brands is simple: their futuristic design and visually stunning appearance make them easy to sell at higher prices, helping brands ascend to the 'high-end smartphone' category.

Especially this year, foldable phones have evolved into 'large folds' and 'small folds,' further expanding their target consumer base. Whether you prefer a mature and restrained 'business style' or a cute and refreshing 'fashion style,' there's a foldable phone to suit your needs.

In Q1 2024, Counterpoint data showed that the global foldable phone market grew by an astonishing 49%, the highest growth rate in the past six quarters.

In Q2 2024, IDC data revealed that China's foldable phone market maintained triple-digit year-on-year growth, with shipments reaching 2.57 million units. Among them, Huawei led the market with a 41.7% share.

Under the impetus of foldable phones, the global smartphone market has finally emerged from its multi-year winter. In Q2 2024, Counterpoint data showed that global smartphone shipments increased by 6% year-on-year, the highest growth rate in three years.

The only brand that failed to shine in the foldable phone market was Apple. In Q2 2024, Apple fell to sixth place in shipments, its worst performance in a decade.

Since the launch of the world's first foldable phone in 2018, Apple has lagged behind in this field for six years. Whether it's software performance tuning or hardware supply chain components, the iPhone cannot compete with Android foldable phones in the short term.

iPhone 16

Unable to compete, Apple decided to switch lanes and focus on the hottest trend: AI big models. By incorporating AI into its phones, Apple hopes to secure a place in the AI race.

According to Tim Cook, the iPhone 16 series is Apple's first flagship phone designed specifically for generative AI. It integrates AI functions for the first time and introduces Apple Intelligence in iOS 18, significantly enhancing various official Apple apps, especially Siri. With AI support, its language understanding capabilities have been greatly improved, and it can now receive text commands.

While Apple's event was flashy, it's worth noting that the Chinese version of Apple Intelligence is not expected to be available until 2025. This means that domestic iPhone 16 series users will not be able to fully experience this core function for some time, undoubtedly intensifying market concerns about Apple's AI strategy timeline.

More importantly, Apple's entry into the AI phone market is lagging behind.

As early as September 2023, Huawei's Mate 60 series had already integrated its self-developed Pangu big model, becoming the first 'AI big model phone.'

Apple's other rival, Samsung, also released the Galaxy S24 series at the end of 2023, pre-installing Google's Gemini AI model.

In addition to Huawei and Samsung, other domestic phone brands such as Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, and Honor have all identified AI as the future direction, with newly released flagship phones either integrating AI big models or AI voice assistants.

The AI features highlighted by the iPhone 16 series can largely be found in alternatives from Android brands.

Tim Cook and Apple's attempts to differentiate their products are still lagging behind, with an uncertain market outlook.

03

Global Market Recovery

A U.S. consulting firm specializing in technology trend forecasting, Institute for the Future, predicted as early as 2017 that the era of smartphones would come to an end due to market saturation and declining new demand.

This prophecy gradually materialized over the following years, with global smartphone shipments continuously declining. In particular, global smartphone shipments fell by 11.3% in 2022, the lowest in a decade. The decline was even more pronounced in the fourth quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year drop of 18.3%.

This chill sweeping through the global smartphone market persisted into 2023. According to the latest TechInsights report, global smartphone shipments in 2023 continued to contract to 1.16 billion units, a year-on-year decline of 2.8% from 1.2 billion units in 2022.

The primary reason for this global market downturn is declining innovation in smartphones, with incremental updates becoming the norm. This has led to a lack of differentiation, making it increasingly difficult for consumers to perceive value.

As a result, consumer demand for new phones has weakened, extending the average replacement cycle to over 31 months.

Source: Internet

Against this backdrop, major phone brands are no longer pursuing cost-effectiveness but rather seeking product innovation to enhance differentiation and stimulate shipments. Thus, foldable phones and AI phones have become lifelines.

Under their dual impetus, consumers are experiencing a wave of phone replacements.

Currently, Huawei and Samsung dominate the foldable phone market, occupying significant shares in the Chinese and global markets, respectively. However, in the AI phone market, no killer product or end-side big model has emerged to change user perceptions.

Perhaps the introduction of the Chinese version of Apple Intelligence in 2025 will bring a different experience to the market and consumers.