Why does Huawei insist on releasing a triple-fold screen phone, and does that mean iPhone 16 is truly out of ideas and has nothing to offer?

Both iPhone 16 and Mate XT triple-fold have been released for some time now, and the initial excitement among industry insiders, players, and consumers has subsided.

Returning to a rational perspective, it is necessary for us at "Digital Intelligence Research Society" to revisit the situation of these two products, released on the same day, and their respective backers, Apple and Huawei, in the smartphone arena. Why does Huawei insist on releasing a triple-fold phone? Does that mean iPhone 16 is truly lacking in innovation and value?

To be honest, there are not many technical barriers to a triple-fold phone in essence. However, Huawei's ability to achieve a body thickness of just 3.6mm, a weight of less than 300g, and mass production demonstrates its impressive technical prowess.

Nonetheless, the development of foldable screens is not the achievement of a single company. From the perspective of "Digital Intelligence Research Society," it is more of an important form as all Chinese smartphone brands strive for high-end and differentiated positioning. Huawei simply collaborated upstream and downstream to "crowdfund" such a product ahead of the curve.

Progress is visible to the naked eye. As a foldable phone, its core competitiveness lies in the experience it provides, composed of the screen, hinge, structural components, and battery. In terms of the screen, Huawei's early Mate X models used Samsung's flexible displays, but with the rise of Chinese display manufacturers and Huawei's efforts, domestic screens were adopted for the Mate X3. Globally, domestic flexible display suppliers like BOE have surpassed Samsung in many areas.

Following this historic achievement, Honor's Magic V series, OPPO's Find N series, vivo's X series, and even Xiaomi's MIX flagship series have all adopted domestic flexible displays from suppliers like BOE and China Star Optoelectronics.

Furthermore, the technology for ultra-thin glass (UTG) used in flexible screens was previously monopolized by Samsung-affiliated companies until 2020. It wasn't until September 2021 that domestic UTG glass achieved mass production in China. The UTG material used in Huawei's newly released Mate XT triple-fold phone is from Kaisheng and is claimed to withstand 400,000 consecutive high-intensity folds without breaking.

In terms of hinges and structural components, China has differentiated itself from the international landscape with MIM technology. Hinges are primarily U-shaped or water-drop-shaped, with Samsung favoring U-shaped while China focuses on water-drop-shaped breakthroughs. Some of the hinges in Huawei's triple-fold Mate XT are supplied by companies like Dafu Technology in Guangdong.

Technically, foldable screen technology is now quite mature, and there are few technical barriers along the supply chain. As a result, the foldable phone market has seen dozens of models in recent years.

More importantly, breakthroughs in the supply chain and technology have driven down the prices of foldable phones. When they first debuted a few years ago, foldable phones cost over RMB 15,000. Now, mainstream large foldable phones have fallen to the RMB 6,000 price range.

Moreover, as a niche market segment, foldable phones were initially quite novel. However, they have since become more commonplace.

So, why does Huawei still bet on the triple-fold Mate XT?

"Digital Intelligence Research Society" believes that Huawei's straight-bodied phones must overlook chip manufacturing process issues, which diminishes their competitiveness. Therefore, Huawei must explore new battlegrounds to maintain product competitiveness. Despite the high risk associated with the triple-fold Mate XT, Huawei has no choice but to take this "risky move." So, regardless of whether Mate XT becomes profitable, releasing it and establishing a leading position in the "triple-fold" segment is ultimately a good thing.

Additionally, as a niche market, the high premium of foldable phones stems from their social status symbol and luxury attributes. With the maturing supply chain and technology, prices will stabilize, and consumers will increasingly focus on practicality. Leaks or hinge issues will undoubtedly deter buyers.

Thus, pricing a triple-fold Mate XT at RMB 20,000 or even RMB 30,000 may be feasible in the short term. However, long-term success hinges on addressing issues of practicality and durability.

Despite knowing this, Huawei's decision to release the triple-fold phone reflects its confidence and strategic thinking. According to "Digital Intelligence Research Society," only Samsung and Huawei are slightly profitable in the global foldable phone market, while other manufacturers mostly operate at a loss. Notably, Xiaomi reduced the price of its MIX Fold 4 by RMB 2,000 shortly after its launch.

While Huawei is currently slightly profitable, the triple-fold Mate XT faces significant risk costs due to frequent repairs, discouraging dealers from displaying them prominently.

Therefore, it's too early to determine the success of the triple-fold Mate XT.

In contrast, the iPhone 16 series launch was unremarkable. The latest chip, Apple's smart features, operating system, camera button, and color options were the highlights, but those impressions faded after users received their devices over half a month later.

The phenomenon of Apple's "incremental innovation" has been discussed for years. Yet, Apple's sales and stock prices continue to soar, with a market capitalization exceeding USD 3.5 trillion.

Apple has pursued steady growth. As the world's most valuable tech company, Apple may be reluctant to undertake significant technological shifts or alter its product mix, favoring stability over risky technological breakthroughs with uncertain profitability. Thus, it has avoided curved screens and foldable designs, instead maintaining its global market share with four straight-bodied models released annually.

We could say that iPhone 16 is content to stay within its comfort zone and resist change. Yet, as the global leader, even the slightest improvement represents a significant step for competitors. From a consumer perspective, it's not surprising that Apple offers few groundbreaking innovations.

Regarding the direct confrontation between Huawei and Apple on September 10, most users express boredom and disappointment with Apple while feeling concerned yet hopeful about Huawei.

Indeed, Huawei's triple-fold Mate XT has garnered significant attention, even earning rare coverage from overseas media.

However, don't underestimate Apple. Its true strength lies in its ecosystem, integrating software, hardware, and AI. For Huawei to challenge Apple's ecosystem, it must optimize the HarmonyOS NEXT experience, streamline AI implementation, and leverage the Mate 70 series for endorsement. Currently, the triple-fold phone is but a fleeting spark.

The real competition is yet to come.