What Industry Experts and Netizens Say

Author | Wang Lei, Qin Zhangyong

This may be Tesla's most disappointing event ever.

In just 20 minutes, its market value plummeted by nearly 10%, wiping out nearly $67 billion in a single day, equivalent to over RMB 470 billion.

At the time of writing, Tesla's closing price has fallen to $217.8, and Musk's personal wealth has shrunk by $15 billion, equivalent to RMB 106 billion.

Regardless of how rosy a future Musk painted or how cool the steering wheel- and pedal-less Cybercab and the latest generation humanoid robot Optimus looked, investors were unimpressed.

From a stock price perspective, this event will indeed go down in history.

Regardless, Tesla remains the global leader in pure electric vehicle sales, with significant advantages in both technology and hardware. Musk has a vast fan base worldwide, and the stock price plunge is likely due to a significant discrepancy between expectations and reality.

01 "It's Hype, a Smokescreen, with Too Few Details"

Regarding the vague technical details presented at the event, Professor Matthew Wansley from Cardozo School of Law in New York said, "Tesla showed a lot of sci-fi smokescreens tonight. They didn't demonstrate a specific software for autonomous driving system functions."

"Musk didn't prove or solve the feasibility of vision-only driving tonight. Additionally, Tesla's biggest problem is that its software lags far behind the rest of the industry."

Colin Langan, an analyst at Wells Fargo, echoed the same doubts:

"The Cybercab demonstration was conducted in a non-realistic setting (a movie scene), akin to a slow and brief amusement park ride, while Waymo now offers 100,000 rides per week in many major cities."

,"In other words, the Robotaxi ride experience demonstrated by Musk is far from ready for real-world driving.

KC Boyce, Vice President of Escalent, a data analytics and consulting firm, said, "Considering Tesla's history of overpromising and underdelivering, I had low expectations for this event. It was a typical Tesla advertisement filled with hype."

"Compared to the autonomous driving routes chosen by Waymo and Cruise, Tesla's pure vision system has hindered their capabilities. While Tesla claims potential advantages from its existing fleet and visual data, I doubt if this data advantage is sufficient to bridge the sensor gap."

,"After the Tesla event, an analyst from Jefferies also stated that Tesla had "ambitious goals but little feasibility evidence," noting that Tesla did not provide a plan for achieving higher levels of autonomous driving.

Similarly, Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, also expressed disappointment with the event, citing a lack of data on FSD technology, mobility economics, and CyberCab's go-to-market strategy.

Moreover, many experts believe that even if Musk can realize the Robotaxi, there are still significant doubts about its practicality and future profitability.

For instance, Professor HanNah YEE-FEN LIM from Nanyang Technological University believes the two-seater design is impractical. Those who genuinely need door-to-door services may be seniors, young people, or those unable to use public transportation. A mere two seats won't suffice.

Furthermore, Crijn Bouman, CEO of electric vehicle charging solutions company Rocsys, also expressed doubts.

"Vehicles are one thing, but operations are another – how to run a profitable business...charging, cleaning, all these things need to be addressed."

"Regarding Robotaxi, the fundamental point is that Musk wants this vehicle to be available almost 24/7. Every time it charges, there's no revenue or profit, so fast charging is crucial. However, the inductive charging technology it uses is typically for low-power environments, requiring many hours to charge. So, I wonder if they have a fast-charging option."

,"Brian Mulberry, Investment Manager at ZACKS Investment Management, said he was somewhat indifferent to Tesla's event overall. "For us, the lack of details means we didn't get more clarity. Therefore, in terms of the positive contribution of robot taxi revenue to earnings per share, we still believe there are six, seven, or eight years of development ahead."

It's evident that the widespread disappointment stems from Musk's focus on grand visions rather than commercial model details for autonomous taxi services, such as revenue projections or market size.

Moreover, Tesla didn't showcase Cybercab's progress in autonomous driving technology, and Musk didn't address how Tesla would reduce production costs while meeting regulatory risk mitigation requirements.

Not just overseas, but even domestic automotive industry leaders have expressed their thoughts after watching the Robotaxi event. Huang Xin, head of NIO's intelligent driving, believes the event was more marketing than substantive, saying, "The next hot marketing buzzwords in the domestic autonomous driving industry can be predicted: XXCab and unsupervised learning."

02 Yet, Many Supporters Remain

Despite skepticism from experts, many still believe in Musk's success.

As Tesla's stock price plummeted, some netizens began heavily investing in Tesla.

Petey B, a private investor with over 200,000 followers on X, tweeted that he had just invested another $2 million in Tesla.

Petey B, who has a background in finance and has experienced three market crashes, said investing has always been easy for him and where he made most of his wealth.

One thing he's learned in life is that "the crowd is always wrong. You can't teach sheep and fools."

In Petey B's view, "For the long term, there's no better company (Tesla) or individual (Musk) to invest in."

One comment under Petey B's tweet read, "Because of this post, I invested another five-figure sum."

@Shaun Maguire, a physics Ph.D. from Caltech, applauded Tesla's efforts in humanoid robots.

He was at the event yesterday and said there were about 30 humanoid robots wandering around freely, interacting for hours and engaging with hundreds of people up close. He was deeply impressed.

"Hardware is 10 times harder than software, and Optimus is rock-solid."

,"Numerous Musk fans gathered under this tweet, calling it a crazy event and noting that few can predict the future.

"Tesla has shown us a future we may never see in our lifetimes. We know Elon won't give up – he has a vision and keeps turning it into reality."

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives shares this view, calling Tesla "the most undervalued AI brand in the market."

"I've been reporting on the tech industry for nearly 25 years, and what I saw in Los Angeles yesterday changed the entire industry. This is a new chapter, and Tesla will be at the forefront of the Fourth Industrial Revolution."

Dan Ives believes what he saw in Los Angeles was a game-changer. While details were scarce, it laid the foundation for Tesla's AI future.

Another renowned analyst, Gene Munster, is also optimistic about Tesla's humanoid robots and autonomous taxis. He believes that even if the Cybercab takes three years to market, it's "worth the wait," and investors will be rewarded.

Opinions on Tesla's event are polarized. Believers still fervently trust Musk, while skeptics try to strip him of his halo.

However, things are not black and white. Only after demystification can we see the truth. Whether Musk's AI empire will fulfill its promises remains to be seen over time.