On October 11, Beijing time, Tesla's "We Robot" event was held at Warner Bros. Studios in Los Angeles, USA. The half-hour-long event brought many surprises.

Previously, Musk described the event as "a day that will go down in history." He also called Robotaxi a "revolution in the transportation industry" and said that Tesla's Robotaxi would change the world, making it more convenient, safer, and more environmentally friendly.

At the event, Musk arrived on stage beside a Cybercab, Tesla's self-driving taxi. The Robotaxi featured a sleek, aerodynamic design with gull-wing doors, exuding a strong sense of technology. However, its most notable feature was the lack of a steering wheel and pedals, truly embodying "self-driving."

In addition to the self-driving taxi, Tesla also unveiled the larger Robovan, a self-driving van that similarly lacked a steering wheel and pedals. Musk also noted significant progress with the Optimus robot. While the vision is grand, the mass production timelines for Robotaxi and Cybercab have been extended to 2027, and the Optimus' timeline has not even been mentioned.

Capital markets were overwhelmingly disappointed with the event, and this sentiment was reflected in Tesla's share price. After the event, Tesla's share price plummeted, falling nearly 9% by October 11, marking its largest decline in nearly two months. The company's market value dropped by nearly $70 billion (approximately RMB 494.7 billion) in a single trading day, and there were no signs of recovery as of press time.

Tesla's Robotaxi Arrives Late

The live stream of the event attracted over 2 million viewers, with the theme "We, Robot" seen as a tribute to American science fiction writer Isaac Asimov's short story collection "I, Robot."

Musk chose Warner Bros. Studios in Los Angeles for the event, and the promotional video was nothing short of fantastical. In videos circulating on overseas social media, people rode in Cybercabs without steering wheels or brake pedals, navigating through movie sets. There was even a TeslaBot dressed as a bartender, smoothly conversing with people, pouring drinks, and striking a victory pose for selfies.

At the event, Musk, clad in a leather jacket, shared his latest outlook on autonomous driving technology. He confidently declared, "The future of autonomous driving is here. This technology will revolutionize the way we travel and save us a lot of time."

He stated that autonomous vehicles are expected to be ten times safer than human-driven cars and could potentially extend vehicle operation time by five to ten times.

Tesla showcased three products at the event: the self-driving taxi "Cybercab," the self-driving van "Robovan," and the humanoid robot "Optimus." Among them, the highly anticipated self-driving taxi Cybercab was undoubtedly the star of the show.

As a self-driving model, the Cybercab's most notable feature is the absence of a steering wheel and pedals. Visually, the Cybercab blends design elements from the Model 3 and Cybertuck, featuring butterfly doors and an overall coupe-like silhouette. The cabin can accommodate only two passengers, closely aligning with the Robotaxi prototype mentioned in "Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future."

Worth noting is that the Cybercab does not even have a charging port, opting for inductive charging. Unlike other self-driving car manufacturers, Tesla's significant advantage lies in its decision to forgo costly lidar configurations, adhering to a purely vision-based FSD solution that significantly reduces manufacturing costs. According to Musk, the Cybercab will cost less than $30,000 (approximately RMB 210,000) and is expected to enter production in 2026. In terms of operating costs, they may decrease to $0.20 per mile as the business expands, far below the current $1 per mile.

However, the event did not provide much insight into the latest developments of the FSD system. Musk emphasized that Tesla's FSD safety level can exceed human driving by approximately tenfold, with fully unsupervised FSD expected in California and Texas next year. Outside the US, Tesla will continue to monitor regulatory developments.

According to Tesla's financial reports, as of the second quarter of 2024, Tesla's FSD fully autonomous driving capability had accumulated over 1.6 billion miles (approximately 2.574 billion kilometers) of driving.

Tesla's AI team announced on social media on September 5 that they expect to launch the FSD system in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval.

Musk called this event "a day that will go down in history," expressing unwavering belief in the transformative power of Robotaxi.

Musk has stated his intention to bet Tesla's financial future on this product. He predicts that the business could potentially increase Tesla's market value to $5 trillion. In his ideal business blueprint, once cars achieve full autonomy, their usage rates could increase by five to tenfold, with weekly usage hours jumping from 10 to over 160, allowing a single individual to manage a large-scale fleet.

Regarding when Tesla's Robotaxi will commence operations, Musk stated that the Cybercab is expected to enter production in 2026, with a latest possible date of 2027. Existing Tesla users can experience self-driving taxi functionality by equipping their current models with FSD.

A Three-Way Standoff in the Robotaxi Market; Tesla Still Faces Challenges

This technological feast, which captured global attention, also sparked heated debate on Chinese internet platforms. Some netizens believed that Tesla was paying homage to domestic autonomous driving company Luobo Quickrun.

Among China's self-driving taxi manufacturers, Baidu's Luobo Quickrun released its sixth-generation driverless vehicle, Apollo RT6, in 2022, supporting both steering wheel-less and steering wheel modes.

More importantly, unlike Tesla's distant mass production timeline for Robotaxi, Luobo Quickrun's sixth-generation driverless car achieved mass production in May this year, reducing costs to approximately RMB 200,000. It has completed over 7 million orders nationwide.

While Musk was still on paper, Luobo Quickrun accelerated its global expansion plans and aims to enter overseas markets. Meanwhile, Baidu's Apollo Autonomous Driving Open Platform 10.0 is Upcoming Release , boasting the latest autonomous driving foundation model (ADFM) from Baidu, significantly enhancing safety, intelligence, and ease of use.

Undoubtedly, Tesla's entry with the Cybercab has reignited the self-driving taxi industry, sparking a fierce rivalry between Chinese and American tech companies.

In this technological peak battle, Tesla's advantage lies in its globally leading integrated circuit technology and high-end chip design capabilities, providing a solid foundation for the development of high-performance automotive chips and ensuring the real-time and stability of autonomous driving systems.

In contrast, Chinese autonomous driving companies like Luobo Quickrun focus on exploring infrastructure resources to enhance overall efficiency, leveraging emerging technologies such as 5G communication networks and cloud computing.

The global self-driving industry is on the cusp of an explosion. According to consultancy firm McKinsey, the revenue of the self-driving taxi market could reach a staggering $1.3 trillion by 2030. Currently, the global market is dominated by three players: Tesla, Luobo Quickrun, and Waymo, an early entrant in the autonomous driving field under Google.

Founded in 2009, Waymo has been a pioneer in autonomous driving, adopting a "single-vehicle intelligence" development path that integrates cameras, lidars, and millimeter-wave radars for comprehensive, high-precision perception of the surrounding environment. In recent years, Waymo has continuously iterated its autonomous driving technology through collaborations with various global automakers. This year alone, Waymo has been active in partnerships, announcing collaborations with Chinese automaker Zeekr in August to jointly develop the sixth-generation self-driving taxi and subsequently partnering with South Korean automotive giant Hyundai in October to equip its electric vehicle fleet with Waymo's autonomous driving technology.

By the end of 2025, Waymo's self-driving taxi fleet will also join Hyundai's electric vehicle lineup.

From a technical perspective, Tesla's autonomous driving technology is more aggressive, leveraging an end-to-end FSD solution. Compared to modular autonomous driving modes, this solution offers seamless data transmission, data-driven decision-making, and global optimization at a relatively low cost. However, the end-to-end solution also poses challenges, such as significant demands for computing power and data, as well as concerns regarding system security and interpretability.

In terms of operational deployment, Waymo and Luobo Quickrun have taken the lead. Recently, Waymo announced plans to expand its operations in the US, offering over 100,000 paid rides per week. Luobo Quickrun completed nearly 900,000 orders in the second quarter of 2024 and is on track to achieve break-even in the region.

Musk's Promises Are Falling Flat

While Tesla's event sparked a technological fervor, the capital market response was lukewarm.

Musk initially set a high bar, announcing the "Robotaxi Day" event on April 5 this year. Tesla's share price soared after the announcement, cumulatively rising by 45% as of October 11's close. Musk also stated that the shift to autonomous driving and AI could potentially increase Tesla's valuation to $5 trillion, approximately seven times its current market value.

However, on the trading day following "Robotaxi Day," Tesla's share price plunged by 8.78%, erasing nearly $70 billion (approximately RMB 494.7 billion) in market value.

British and American analysts described Tesla's autonomous taxi event as "disappointing" to investors. Analysts at Barclays wrote in a research report that Tesla's latest products and announcements failed to showcase short-term growth opportunities, instead reinforcing Musk's vision for full autonomy.

While the unveiling of 20 Cybercabs was impressive, markets and investors were unsatisfied, generally believing that the event lacked details. For instance, there were concerns about Tesla's Robotaxi timeline and the latest FSD technology developments. Notably, the much-anticipated low-cost Model 2 also failed to make an appearance.

Despite not meeting expectations for the Model 2, Musk still showcased muscle by unveiling the Robovan, a self-driving cargo van resembling a larger business vehicle. However, technical details were lacking, with Musk merely stating that it could carry up to 20 passengers and meet cargo transport needs, with travel costs as low as 10 cents per mile.

Furthermore, Musk concluded the event by showcasing the humanoid robot Optimus. According to Musk, many technologies developed by Tesla for automobiles, such as batteries, motors, software, and AI processors, can be reused in robots.

"It can do anything you want, like taking care of children, walking dogs, mowing the lawn, grocery shopping, or even bringing you a cup of coffee. I believe all 8 billion people in the world should want such a product," Musk passionately stated at the event. If mass-produced, the cost of humanoid robots could drop to $20,000 to $30,000, equivalent to the price of a new energy vehicle.

However, it is worth noting that unlike the two-year timeline for the Cybercab, the mass production of the Robovan cargo van and Optimus humanoid robot seems more distant.

Facing repeated broken promises regarding autonomous driving, capital markets' patience with Musk is wearing thin.

Musk first expressed his commitment to Robotaxi nine years ago. In 2015, he stated that Tesla's cars would achieve "full autonomy" within three years. A year later, he boldly claimed that Tesla vehicles would be capable of cross-country driving without human intervention by the end of the following year. In 2019, during a conference call, he announced that Tesla would have 1 million robot taxis ready for the road by 2020.

Even the "Robotaxi Day" event was postponed from August to October.

Indeed, Tesla's market performance this year has been underwhelming. According to Tesla's Q3 2024 sales figures released in early October, the company delivered 463,000 new vehicles globally, a year-over-year increase of 6.4%. While this marked the first quarterly growth this year, overall deliveries for the first nine months declined by over 2%.

Earlier this year, Musk indicated that Tesla's expansion would significantly slow down. This impacted Tesla's share price, which plummeted by over 40% by mid-April. It wasn't until news of Tesla's shift towards autonomous taxi development emerged that the share price recovered.

Investors eagerly anticipating Tesla's self-driving taxi failed to see the company's "sincerity."

Musk's promises are falling flat.