With Tesla's launch of the "limited-time delivery with immediate discount on final payment" policy at the end of November, the price war for December has already begun in advance. After entering December, multiple automakers have announced their year-end promotional policies. This also means that the final month sprint has arrived. With only one month left in the year, the impact on the overall annual sales target is actually minimal. So, from January to November, how many new energy brands have the opportunity to meet their annual corporate goals?

As the sales leader in new energy vehicles, BYD has achieved sales of over 3.75 million units from January to November this year. BYD's target set at the beginning of 2024 was 3.6 million units, which has already been exceeded. On the basis of consecutive monthly sales exceeding 500,000 units, it is rumored that BYD has raised its sales target for this year to 4 million units. In the last month, BYD will likely sell 500,000 to 600,000 units. This means that BYD's sales this year will be between 4.2 and 4.3 million units. This also means that BYD can achieve the revised target.

In addition to BYD, another company that has revised its annual sales target upwards this year is Xiaomi Motors, and it has done so twice. Xiaomi Motors only launched its first model, the SU7, in March this year. However, due to sufficient orders after its launch, Xiaomi Motors' monthly sales quickly exceeded 10,000 units. In May this year, Xiaomi's senior management announced that Xiaomi Motors' target sales volume had been increased to 120,000 units, but by November, Xiaomi Motors announced another revision, setting the annual target at 130,000 units. From January to November, Xiaomi Motors has sold over 110,000 units. In December, as long as Xiaomi Motors continues to maintain a monthly sales rate of 20,000 units, it can easily achieve its annual target.

In addition to BYD and Xiaomi, Leopaard Auto, although not revising its target upwards, has already achieved its annual target of 250,000 units in November. At its current monthly sales rate of 40,000 units, it can sell 290,000 to 300,000 units this year. Other new energy automakers have not revised their targets upwards for the time being this year; instead, most have lowered them. Among them, AITO has seen the largest reduction.

AITO's initial target was to sell 240,000 units in 2024, but in the first half of the year, its sales never reached 10,000 units. Therefore, the target was quickly revised to a more practical 90,000 units. From October to November this year, stimulated by policies and new products, AITO also witnessed consecutive monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units. From January to November this year, AITO sold 62,000 units, which means that AITO needs to sell over 30,000 units in the last month to achieve its target. From this perspective, it is highly unlikely that AITO will achieve its target this year.

The company with the largest absolute reduction in target is Li Auto. Previously, Li Auto's target for 2024 was to sell 800,000 units, surpassing BBA to become the top-selling luxury car brand in China. However, following the unsuccessful launch of the MEGA, this target was quickly revised, with the new goal being to sell 500,000 units annually. From January to November this year, Li Auto sold 442,000 units. There is still a gap of 58,000 units to reach the target. This is a figure Li Auto has never reached before.

Perhaps for this reason, Li Auto recently launched a limited-time purchase plan offering "0% interest for 3 years" across its entire model line. Under this plan, customers who purchase a Li Auto vehicle can enjoy an interest subsidy of up to RMB 27,000.

Similarly, as another brand under Changan Automobile, Deep Blue is also a company that set an overly ambitious target. Deep Blue's expectation for 2024 was to sell 450,000 units globally, with 280,000 units in China. However, from the current situation, Deep Blue's cumulative sales from January to November are 200,700 units, making it unlikely to sell 80,000 units in the last month. Nevertheless, Deep Blue has now entered a stage of monthly sales of 30,000 units, and it is believed that it can achieve sales of over 300,000 units in 2025. However, Deep Blue's target for next year is to sell 500,000 units globally, with 100,000 units in overseas markets. Therefore, a monthly sales volume of 35,000 units will be the bottom line for Deep Blue next year.

In addition to these companies that have revised their targets, Geely's Zeekr and NIO are both over 80% towards achieving their annual targets. Among them, Zeekr sold 194,900 units from January to November, with an annual target of 230,000 units and a target achievement rate of 84.75%. Zeekr delivered 27,011 units in November, a year-on-year increase of 106% and a month-on-month increase of 8%. There is still some pressure to complete the remaining sales, as 35,100 units need to be sold, but it is not entirely impossible.

NIO sold 190,800 units from January to November, with a target of 230,000 units and a current target achievement rate of 82.96%. According to NIO management's forecast, by December, deliveries of the L60 will reach 10,000 units, with a production and delivery target of 20,000 units in March next year. If the NIO brand remains unchanged, it can achieve sales of around 25,000 units in December. This means that NIO's sales in 2024 should be between 215,000 and 220,000 units. In 2025, NIO's sales target is to sell 450,000 units. Supporting this target is the launch of the Firefly brand in 2025. Therefore, NIO's growth spurt should also occur in 2025.

Lantu Auto has cumulatively sold 73,600 units from January to November, with a distance of 26,600 units from its target of 100,000 units for this year. This is basically unachievable. However, in terms of Lantu's overall performance, its development trend has been very stable. Lantu Auto delivered 10,856 units in November, a year-on-year increase of 55%, with sales exceeding 10,000 units for three consecutive months. Based on the current trend, Lantu's sales this year are expected to remain around 85,000 units, setting a new record high. The consecutive monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units have also established a stable brand appeal for Lantu in the market, especially as the Dreamer has surpassed the Denza D9 in the market segment, which is a significant achievement.

As the representative of Huawei's HarmonyOS terminals, AITO's target achievement rate for this year is actually not high. From January to November this year, Thalys' cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 389,566 units, a year-on-year increase of 255.26%. This is basically equivalent to AITO's sales. As Huawei has shifted its focus to brands such as Zenith, Wisdom, and Enjoy, AITO's momentum has obviously been affected. Previously, there was news that AITO had set a sales target of 600,000 vehicles for 2024. Based on this figure, it is clear that AITO will be unable to achieve its target.

Xpeng Motors' target for this year is 280,000 units, with sales of 153,400 units from January to November, achieving just over 50% of its target. In November this year, Xpeng Motors delivered approximately 30,900 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 54%. This is the first time that Xpeng Motors has delivered over 30,000 units in a single month. Previously, in the third-quarter report, for the fourth quarter of 2024, Xpeng Motors expected total deliveries to range from 87,000 to 91,000 units. Therefore, Xpeng expects to deliver 32,200 to 36,200 units in December. As a result, Xpeng's sales this year are likely to be between 180,000 and 190,000 units, with a target achievement rate of 64% to 67%.

IM Motors' target for this year is 120,000 units, with sales of 57,500 units from January to November, resulting in a target achievement rate of 54.79%. IM Motors sold 10,007 units across its entire product line in November, basically the same as the 10,001 units sold in October. IM Motors' sales have consistently exceeded 10,000 units. Next year, IM Motors will also launch its extended-range products, indicating that its sales are reaching a critical point for further growth. To boost sales, IM Motors has also launched a limited-time promotion offering 0% interest for 5 years in December, announcing its participation in the final month's battle. IM Motors' sales this year are likely to be between 68,000 and 75,000 units, with a target achievement rate of 56.7% to 62%.

In addition, although Aion's sales performance has been impressive, it is still far from its target. Aion's target for this year is 700,000 units, but its sales from January to November are 307,000 units, with an achievement rate of less than 50%. Aion sold 42,301 units in November 2024. Even if sales exceed 50,000 units in the last month, the company's sales for 2024 will only be around 360,000 units, with an achievement rate of around 50%. Of course, Aion will also introduce extended-range products in 2025, indicating that there will be a new wave of growth for Aion in 2025. In 2025, Aion still has the opportunity to surpass its previous monthly sales record of 50,000 units.

In addition, ARCFOX and WEY have not announced their annual targets. However, both companies have seen significant sales growth this year. Among them, WEY sold 45,900 units from January to November this year, an increase of 20.5%. ARCFOX sold 69,000 units from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 213.4%. Based on the current trend, WEY's sales will exceed 50,000 units again, which is very important for the brand. Secondly, ARCFOX's sales will reach over 80,000 units, approaching 100,000 units and entering an upward channel.

In the last month, major automakers have rolled out their promotional policies. From the current situation, the target achievement rate of almost all brands is likely to exceed 50%. This is both a market dividend gained by automakers amid market shifts and an inevitable outcome of fierce market competition. However, in the new energy vehicle market, only BYD, Li Auto, and AITO are currently profitable. The gross profit margins of these three companies all exceed 20%, which is much higher than that of fuel vehicles. This high gross profit margin seems to indicate that there is still room for price reductions in new energy vehicles. Of course, the target achievement rate is not the same as sales volume; it is merely a misalignment between reality and ideal, reflecting both strategic errors and the harsh realities of the market.