Introduction

The battle has already begun.

Earlier this month, I wrote an article titled "Next Year, China's Auto Market Will Only Become More Suffocating," which ultimately achieved decent traffic and engagement.

Looking back at the entire article, the central message is clear: "If this year's competition has already made all participants feel overwhelmed, then next year's overall market is destined to become even more suffocating. It is certain that the qualifying rounds are over, the knockout stages are nearing their end, and what is slowly unfolding is the grand final that will determine the ultimate landscape."

So why is this happening?

In fact, the reason is quite simple. With the increasingly fierce trend towards electrification, the old order of China's auto market has been completely overturned. Looking at the process of establishing new rules from scratch, the rounds of challenges and reshuffles mentioned above are inevitable, both logically and emotionally.

Moreover, domestic brands are gradually outperforming joint ventures in sales share and exports, while smart electric vehicles are slowly surpassing traditional gasoline vehicles in terms of buzz and sales, marking two of the most striking "trends."

Little did I know that just last night, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the final new car catalog of the year. Looking at this gold-laden list, it aligns perfectly with the above assessment. Major OEMs, especially several Chinese automakers, have chosen to showcase their "arsenal" at this critical juncture in order to gain a head start.

The competition is fierce, much like a preview of next year's "grand final." Of course, as an observer, by analyzing the moves of several key players, one can also gain insight into some mainstream industry trends.

Next, I want to expand on this topic.

The mid-size new energy sedan market is becoming increasingly competitive

Early yesterday morning, perhaps to avoid the rush of traffic after the release of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's new car catalog, AITO unveiled the mystery of its fourth product ahead of schedule.

Judging from the official images, it has been finalized as the "AITO 06." As a mid-size new energy sedan, its positioning is slightly lower than that of the AITO 12.

In terms of design, it adopts the familiar family design language but also incorporates innovative and iterative elements in many details, particularly in the front and rear. The side profile is not "bulky" but gives a more streamlined feel.

Anyway, after asking some friends around me, everyone gave positive feedback on its "appearance." In this regard, you can always trust AITO's taste.

Soon, it was last night, and according to the information in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's new car catalog, its length, width, and height are 4855mm, 1960mm, and 1450mm, respectively, with a wheelbase of 2940mm. In terms of power, it continues to adopt a parallel technical route of pure electric and extended-range driving.

Upon entering the market, AITO 06 will face stiff competition from the Tesla Model 3, Xiaomi SU7, and the recently popular XPeng P7+, among others.

At this moment, if one were to try to select the most fiercely competitive segment in China's auto market, most readers would undoubtedly vote for the mid-size new energy sedan segment.

Unsurprisingly, after entering the market next year, the protagonist of this paragraph will also face a red ocean.

To carve out a path and establish a foothold, AITO 06 must not only have a well-rounded configuration but also offer a compelling price that consumers cannot refuse.

This is precisely what concerns me. After all, considering the precedent set by its "sibling" AITO 07, the brand still bears a heavy "premium" burden.

Nevertheless, I still believe that "if AITO 06 can price its entry-level model below 200,000 yuan, combined with its strong endorsement from Chang'an, Huawei, and CATL, as well as its leading advantages in design and intelligence, it will surely carve out a piece of the mid-size new energy sedan market.""

Furthermore, from the perspective of the overall corporate development, AITO 06's sales contribution will, to some extent, determine how high AITO can soar next year and whether it can achieve a qualitative change through a quantitative accumulation.

Therefore, this crucial battle cannot be lost and cannot be afforded to be lost.

The "fuel tank" has become a magic tool for domestic SUVs to embrace electrification

After looking at AITO 06, let's turn our attention to the new car catalog of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Undoubtedly, SUVs, which are favored by Chinese consumers, are also worth noting.

From BYD's newly launched Seal 05 to the completely revamped Seal 07, to the Qiyuan C798, and to the all-new trump card S09 unveiled by Deep Blue, the shared characteristic among them is their ability to embrace electrification while retaining a "fuel tank."

This is because both plug-in hybrids and extended-range electric vehicles are being more widely accepted by potential customers. Facing such a pace of innovation, the subtitle of this paragraph becomes the most appropriate description.

Looking ahead to next year, you will increasingly find that the mantle of traditional gasoline vehicles is being passed on seamlessly to plug-in hybrids and extended-range electric vehicles, especially in the mid-size, large, and extra-large SUV markets.

If we consider extended-range electric vehicles as an important branch of plug-in hybrids, the combined market share of the two could even rival that of pure electric vehicles.

As evidence, let's focus on the sales figures for November just released by the China Passenger Car Association. Among wholesale sales, pure electric vehicles accounted for 58%, plug-in hybrids accounted for 33%, and extended-range electric vehicles accounted for 9%.

In comparison, in November of last year, pure electric vehicles accounted for 68% of wholesale sales, plug-in hybrids accounted for 23%, and extended-range electric vehicles accounted for 9%.

It is clear at a glance which segment is rapidly rising.

Adding the wholesale sales shares of plug-in hybrids and extended-range electric vehicles in November, the combined share comes to 42%. According to future industry trends and the needs of potential consumers, there are only two possible outcomes: an even split or a direct surpass.

Furthermore, over the past few years, if the penetration of smart electric vehicles has mainly been concentrated in first-tier cities and coastal cities, then with the gradual enrichment of plug-in hybrid and extended-range electric vehicle products next year, the "bridgeheads" of lower-tier cities and inland cities will also be captured one by one.

OEMs that solely bet on one technical route are likely to experience pain during their journey forward. In contrast, automakers with a dual-track strategy will find it easier to reap the benefits of the times.

Of course, looking at this issue's new car catalog from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the pure electric SUV camp is not without highlights. Players like FANGCHENGBAO Titan 3, the 2025 XPeng G6, the 2025 XPeng G9, and the Leapmotor B10 are also worthy of our continued attention.

And next year, to a large extent, how far China's auto market can bloom will depend on how much energy domestic new energy SUVs can collectively provide. After all, people's preference for them is only growing stronger.

Because of this, it is by no means easy for OEMs to try to get a piece of the pie.

Is the "killer" of the Model Y really here?

Since we've talked about domestic new energy SUVs, the final paragraph must devote considerable space to discussing Xiaomi YU7, widely recognized as the biggest "superstar" in this issue's new car catalog from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

"Today, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced Xiaomi's new SUV model, Xiaomi YU7, which is expected to be officially launched in June or July next year. Why the early announcement? We hope that the YU7 test car can remove its heavy camouflage as soon as possible, which will help us conduct more comprehensive, detailed, and long-term large-scale testing to ensure product quality and create better products," said Lei Jun, Xiaomi's CEO, who provided a spoiler and explanation right away.

In terms of dimensions, Xiaomi YU7 measures 4999mm in length, 1996mm in width, and 1600mm in height, all larger than its predecessor Xiaomi SU7, while the wheelbase remains at 3000mm.

As for its design, it indeed meets the aesthetics of most people. Although there is some controversy regarding its overall style, with some voices arguing that it is too similar to Ferrari's FUV, it must be acknowledged that in this era where appearance is justice, it undoubtedly has the prerequisite for good sales.

Moreover, under Lei Jun's guidance, Xiaomi SU7, as a mid-size pure electric sedan with a relatively small audience, has a monthly delivery volume that has steadily exceeded 20,000 units. The prospects for Xiaomi YU7 are even broader.

I recently heard a saying, "Currently, the deepest moats in China's auto market are BYD's scale effect, Huawei's intelligence, and Xiaomi's marketing power.""

Last night, after Xiaomi YU7 made its debut, news about it flooded various social media platforms, further confirming my belief.

Even though there are still six months until its official launch, momentum is already building rapidly. This is why I understand why AITO chose to release official images early yesterday morning. I believe no one wants to go head-to-head with Xiaomi YU7 and end up losing.

Furthermore, a new topic has emerged: This year, many domestic brands in the mid-size SUV market have made moves, encircling the dominant Tesla Model Y. However, in terms of sales performance and industry status, the latter remains unshaken. Moreover, don't forget that its refreshed version will enter the market in the first quarter of next year, which will inevitably stir up even more turbulence in the overall market.

So, do you think Xiaomi YU7 will truly become the killer of the Tesla Model Y?

Without exaggeration or bias, considering Xiaomi SU7's restraint on the Tesla Model 3, I can only say that there is an opportunity. If Xiaomi YU7 can offer a price that consumers cannot refuse, coupled with a product that does not have significant shortcomings and the various added values brought by Lei Jun, it will have the strength to compete with the refreshed Tesla Model Y.

At this point, the article is gradually drawing to a close.

Returning to this issue's new car catalog from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as mentioned at the beginning, "The fierce competition is much like a preview of next year's grand final." For all automakers still in the game, what lies ahead is a battle for survival and dominance.

Finally, my view remains the same: The overall market will only become more suffocating going forward.