Where is NIO Heading?

12/24 2024 566

Author | Yang Lu

Editor | Li Guozheng

Produced by | Bangning Studio (gbngzs)

NIO remains true to its roots. Even on such a significant milestone as its 10th anniversary, it hasn't forgotten its commitment to being a 'user-centric enterprise,' a brand identity it has honed over the years.

On the evening of December 21, 2024, the Haixinsha Asian Games Park, a renowned landmark in Guangzhou's Tianhe CBD, was illuminated brightly, drawing a bustling crowd. At NIO's 8th NIO Day event, over 170 charity stalls set up by NIO users and interest groups attracted 22,000 users, setting a new record for the event.

NIO users from across the country will remember the grand debut of the first NIO Day on December 16, 2017, at Beijing's Wukesong Stadium, where Li Bin unveiled five NIO ES8s in different colors, heralding a new era in automotive innovation.

Since then, NIO has arrived.

A decade later, as the label of a 'user-centric enterprise' fades, its core values continue to evolve. This tech company has snowballed into a new NIO, backed by impressive numbers:

Cumulative R&D investment exceeding 53 billion yuan. 11,000 R&D personnel globally. Over 9,300 global patents.

169 NIO Houses established. Over 12 million registered users on the NIO App, with over 4.3 million active users and over 48.5 million user-shared posts.

Over 2,800 battery swap stations nationwide, each capable of storing 2,000 kWh of electricity. 10,000 stations would hold 20 million kWh, enough to power a city of 10 million people for an evening...

Amidst the excitement, NIO's founder and CEO Li Bin, along with co-founder Qin Lihong, remained composed.

At the center of the NIO Day extravaganza, Li Bin momentarily expressed regret about spending little time with his family. This guilt was swiftly alleviated the next day during an interview, as he and his long-time partner Qin Lihong joked around. 'I didn't want to get too emotional; what if I started crying?' Li Bin recalled.

Business is serious, and he quickly shifted focus to the two stars of NIO Day: the executive flagship sedan NIO ET9 and the third brand, Firefly.

These are NIO's tickets to the next decade: one represents the pinnacle of NIO's automotive craftsmanship, the other an entry-level product; one priced at 788,000 yuan, the other with a pre-sale price of 148,800 yuan, expanding NIO's product range from high to low; one a masterpiece of NIO's cutting-edge technology, the other empowering the younger generation.

But now, Li Bin must answer: After a decade in automotive manufacturing, who is NIO, and where is it headed?

Present Situation

'Ten years ago, NIO was founded as a user-centric enterprise. Today, NIO has three brands: NIO, Ledao, and Firefly, along with many accomplishments. NIO has come a long way. Can you tell us: What is NIO? Where are the boundaries of NIO's automotive manufacturing?'

During an interview on December 22, Bangning Studio posed this question to both Li Bin and Qin Lihong. Over the past decade, NIO has consistently pushed boundaries: its products span small cars, shooting brakes, sedans, and SUVs; its technology extends to chips, operating systems, intelligent cabins, and autonomous driving; its services are continually updated... Each choice demands technology, talent, significant investment, and accumulation. How does NIO manage it all?

Li Bin responded by outlining NIO's newly constructed value system, though his answer seemed to skirt the core issues. He explained that NIO had updated its corporate value system, iterating on the past decade's achievements based on its mission and vision.

He referred to July 2024, when NIO announced its corporate value system 3.0, with a mission of 'Blue Sky Coming: Creating a Sustainable and Better Future' and a vision of 'Becoming a Leading User Enterprise in Technology and Experience.'

Technology and experience were recurring themes at this NIO Day.

First, let's discuss technology. 'The ET9 is the culmination of a decade of NIO's technological development. It represents the pinnacle of NIO's technological innovation and, I believe, a peak in global smart electric vehicle technology innovation,' Li Bin introduced the ET9, spending nearly an hour elaborating on its technical features.

In fact, the NIO ET9 was unveiled at last year's NIO Day, with a pre-sale price of 800,000 yuan but not due for delivery until 2025. This long delivery timeline dampened the excitement around the ET9. This time, as the bearer of NIO's technology, the ET9 finally showcased where over 50 billion yuan in R&D expenses since 2016 have been spent – precisely what Li Bin intended to convey.

At the 2024 NIO Innovation Day, NIO showcased its self-developed chips, operating systems, intelligent cabins, and autonomous driving technologies. Five months later, these intangible technologies materialized in the ET9.

The first 999 ET9 launch editions were quickly snapped up, with most customers choosing the Midnight Mirror Porcelain Blue color. 'For a car this expensive, customers must have test-driven it before placing an order,' Li Bin's confidence stemmed from the product experience.

Annabelle Yu Long, founding and managing partner of BAI Capital, was one such chief experience officer. 'She immediately gave feedback on how comfortable the entry height was,' Li Bin shared during the launch, revealing her genuine first reaction. Originally, this part wasn't included in the video, but it was added to highlight NIO's attention to detail that customers can feel.

As car prices rise, so do customers' emotional needs, with product value ultimately influencing the customer experience. Li Bin revealed that NIO will also conduct targeted experiential marketing for the ET9 based on its target users' usage scenarios.

Li Bin believes that over the past decade, NIO has learned about product planning, branding, mechanical hardware quality, and supply chains from traditional automakers. In recent years, it has also learned from Chinese brands, including new forces and tech companies like Huawei and Xiaomi, on how to prioritize the user experience.

The Ledao L60 is one example. This car is equipped with a large 50+ liter fridge, tailored to users' needs during festive seasons when they return home. The NIO ET9 is another example, with its executive screen, desk, fridge, and other original products tailored to user scenarios.

The luxury flagship sedan market that the NIO ET9 enters is also populated by other Chinese brands. On November 26 this year, the Zunjie S800 was unveiled, followed shortly by the Yangwang U7 at the Guangzhou Auto Show, as Chinese brands collectively aim for the top.

In Qin Lihong's view, the value propositions of the NIO ET9 and Zunjie differ, 'forming a good complement to each other and representing Chinese brands' attempts in the high-end market.'

The more premium the market, the more important consensus becomes. When customers see multiple Chinese brands producing luxury flagship models, the monopoly of traditional BBA brands in this market will inevitably be shaken.

Future

After a decade, NIO has its adherences and changes.

Ten years ago, NIO wasn't called NIO. Li Bin told Qin Lihong that he had been conceptualizing a project for several years and was looking for someone to oversee it. Thus, the two joined forces, and the automotive venture began.

'What most impressed me was his statement that the basic rules of the automotive industry are not winner-takes-all,' Qin Lihong said. 'Throughout automotive history, a car company's market share rarely exceeds 15%. To achieve a 10% global share is already top-tier, except in rare cases due to war or political reasons.'

There are two reasons for this characteristic of the automotive industry:

First, the assets are heavy. If 20% of the global population bought NIO cars, it would take decades to scale up production.

Second, cars are about people's lifestyles and social status. Being different from others can be a demand.

Based on the founders' shared insights and value orientations towards the automotive industry, NIO's unique style was established and continues.

The birth of Firefly exemplifies NIO's adherence. Although the Firefly faced ridicule upon its debut due to its unappealing design, Qin Lihong noted that some people will like it, while others won't. Cars reflect each person's expectations and reflections on their life state.

NIO has always been praised for its design. This time, the bold design of the Firefly forced Li Bin to personally explain that 'the design of the Firefly and NIO indeed comes from the same team.' Initially, the team developed it from a creative perspective, aware that the Firefly's design might be controversial, but they decided to give it a try.

A similar controversy surrounded the NIO ET7. Its Aquila super-sensing system placed a lidar on the roof in a watchtower-like design. People initially found the lidar's position odd, but now, most models place their lidars on the roof.

Benefiting from previous practical achievements, NIO is more confident in sticking to what it does best.

However, due to profit pressure, NIO needs to make adjustments in internal operations. In 2024, NIO embarked on two critical tasks.

The first is the 'Mining Operation,' aiming to save wherever possible.

The second is establishing an ROI (Return on Investment)-driven internal decision-making system.

Li Bin mentioned that at this NIO Day, many projects were evaluated based on ROI. For example, the drone performance originally planned to show more scenes but was canceled due to low ROI. 'We follow the principle of saving where we can and spending where necessary, keeping a closer eye on the books,' he said.

As early as 2021's financial report meeting, NIO aimed to achieve full-year profitability in 2024, but this goal has now been pushed back to 2026. Even some car owners are concerned and suggest adjusting the location and number of NIO Houses from a cost-saving perspective.

In 2019, NIO faced a life-or-death crisis. By 2024, it was still not favored by the outside world, with rumors of collapse frequently emerging. Li Bin stated that NIO can now endure much longer than in 2019, with an operating cash flow of 42.2 billion yuan. If it survived for five years from 2019, it can definitely last much longer in the future.

Since the global automotive industry is less concentrated than other industries, many automakers will survive, but there will undoubtedly be transformations during the shakeout period. As Li Bin wrote in an internal letter on NIO's 10th anniversary, the next two years are crucial and cannot be compromised.

Looking ahead, Li Bin believes that by 2035, at least five Chinese companies will be among the top ten global automakers, accounting for 40% of the market share. Currently, NIO's market share in the 300,000-yuan pure electric vehicle segment exceeds 40%. It aims not to lag behind its Chinese peers and strives to become one of the top five domestic automakers.

Qin Lihong said, 'Standing at this juncture to plan for the next decade, we are definitely better prepared than when we faced the next ten years just after founding the company.'

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