Amidst the global rebalancing of fuel and electric vehicle markets, 2025 stands as a pivotal year for the survival of automakers worldwide, prompting Japanese brands to prepare proactively for the challenges ahead.

Honda and Nissan aim to merge in June 2025, forming the world's third-largest automotive group after Toyota and Volkswagen. Meanwhile, Toyota's "final offspring" in China, the Lexus domestic project, has landed in Shanghai via a wholly-owned new energy plant, accelerating China's automotive transition to the global market.

In 2025, Toyota's new strategy for China has finally come to light.

Following Honda's failed dual-car strategy and Nissan's unsuccessful two-generation strategy, Toyota's dual-car approach will also undergo significant adjustments, leaving Volkswagen's remarkable dual-car achievements in the fuel vehicle era untouched.

After Toyota's first all-new electric SUV, the bZ4X, transitioned from joint production by North and South Toyota to exclusive production by GAC Toyota, rumors suggest that models like Levin, Asia Dragon, and Venza will also merge and shift production. Future offerings will no longer include twin models, akin to Toyota's bZ3, bZ3C, and GAC Toyota's bZ3X, which share names but differ vastly in positioning and marketing.

Whether due to internal price wars or Toyota China's future need for high-end development, abandoning the dual-car strategy has become a necessity for Toyota.

Although Toyota missed the 1 million vehicle sales mark in 2024, FAW Toyota and GAC Toyota have demonstrated the most stable development trends, unlike Volkswagen's struggles in the new energy market and General Motors' and Nissan's unrecognized losses.

As we enter 2025, amidst the rise of domestic automakers and joint ventures' gradual retreat, China's automotive industry is beginning to fully appreciate Toyota's potential.

For a long time, Toyota relied heavily on the Corolla, a budget-friendly car, to sustain its growth in China, followed by the Camry's acceleration. Nowadays, it's the high-end market supported by models like the Highlander, Sienna, Crown Kluger, and Granvia.

Toyota has established its largest overseas intelligent electric vehicle R&D base, IEM by TOYOTA, and hybrid powertrain production base, TMCAP, in Changshu, Jiangsu. The company has long been prepared for the electric intelligent vehicle boom and domestic Lexus production.

'Accumulating strength for a sudden leap' aptly summarizes Toyota's development in China: from economy cars and SUVs to the current full model range and engine power options, Toyota achieved this in just five years. For the next five years, some may already grasp Toyota's brilliance.

While Toyota focuses on accelerating hybrid electric vehicle adoption, it might seem to have made few strides in new energy vehicles. However, three pure electric vehicles jointly developed with BYD and GAC Group will officially hit the market in 2025, with even faster future model launches anticipated.

In the new energy vehicle arena, Toyota isn't playing the technology and volume game like newer entrants; it aims to become the second BYD, with a global sales volume of one million vehicles.

The global adoption of hybrid electric vehicles and accelerated launch of Toyota China's pure electric vehicles lay the groundwork for the 2026 super engine and 2027 solid-state batteries. These advancements are enough for Toyota to firmly establish its discourse power in the global automotive market.

By replicating Tesla's Shanghai model, domestic Lexus production will propel Toyota into another rapid growth phase in China, enhancing its brand presence and securing China's automotive industrial policy endorsement.

Judging from Toyota China's history, it consistently anticipates potential difficulties, stabilizing itself in fierce competition and growing counter-cyclically during market downturns. Apart from Toyota, perhaps no other multinational automaker can achieve such overtaking in the Chinese market.

It's reported that within the next five years, Toyota will gradually increase its Chinese production capacity from the current 2 million vehicles to at least 2.5 million, potentially reaching 3 million.

FAW Toyota's new energy plant and GAC Toyota's fifth plant have reserved land for new factories, expected to adopt Toyota's newly announced production layout and processes, including integrated body casting and self-propelled body processes, significantly reducing factory construction costs and time.

Amidst China's fiercely competitive new energy vehicle market, with North and South Toyota's combined annual standard production capacity of 2 million vehicles facing overcapacity, Toyota is still establishing a wholly-owned Lexus factory in Shanghai. This demonstrates the courage and confidence of the world's leading automaker.

From January to November, Toyota's (including Lexus) global sales totaled 9.2539 million vehicles, a 1.2% year-on-year decrease. In major overseas markets, North America sold 2.1226 million vehicles, up 5% year-on-year, while China (including Hong Kong and Macau) sold 1.5888 million vehicles, down 3.7% year-on-year, indicating significant untapped potential in the Chinese market.

As the world's largest new energy vehicle market, China boasts the most comprehensive and powerful new energy vehicle industry chain globally. This is crucial for Lexus's pioneering transition to fully electric vehicles. Lexus needs China.

Simultaneously, China also requires domestic Lexus production to navigate changes in the global automotive trade environment, which Tesla and domestic automakers alone cannot sufficiently address. When the automotive giants of Japan and the United States are deeply tied to the Chinese market, it not only strengthens China's automotive industrial chain but also secures more development space for Chinese automaking, minimizing the threat of international automotive trade restrictions.

Domestic Lexus production isn't merely another Tesla-style new energy vehicle export base. North and South Toyota's models and development will inevitably adapt, with one significant change being the export of Chinese-made Toyota new energy vehicles.

Toyota's all-new electric vehicle, the bZ4X, is produced only in Japan and China, and the bZ electric series is already localized in China, including joint development of electric intelligent vehicles with BYD and GAC Group. North and South Toyota are poised to become Toyota's global export bases, marking a historic breakthrough for joint venture automakers.

For Toyota, transforming from a consumer market to a global manufacturing base in China is significant, signifying that Toyota China's production scale will continue to expand in the coming years, bolstering the future development of Chinese automaking.

Faced with occasional automotive trade restrictions imposed by North America and Europe on Chinese automakers, Chinese export bases like Tesla and Volkswagen provide the strongest counterattack through multinational automakers' global systems, also giving Chinese automaking's globalization efforts a significant boost.

In 2025, if domestic automakers understand Toyota's exemplary global development strategy, they will not solely bet on electric vehicles but pursue comprehensive development across multiple power sources and markets to excel in the global market's differentiated competition.

BYD dominates the new energy vehicle market with an overwhelming lead, and major domestic automakers must compete on price. Once Toyota completes its comprehensive transformation, it might replicate BYD's competitive strategy in the Chinese market, leveraging a larger global model portfolio.

As Chinese new energy vehicles aggressively expand globally, it's crucial to avoid internal strife leading to self-destruction before defeating traditional automakers. Toyota is poised to form a new market barrier for multinational automakers by advancing both fuel and new energy vehicles in harmony.

Toyota's brilliance is recognized by few, but to defeat it, one must rely on fuel vehicles. Rising Chinese automakers must acknowledge BYD's successful plug-in hybrid model and ponder: who will be the next?