As 2024 drew to a close, automakers unveiled their sales figures for the year. According to rough estimates by 'Auto Talk', the majority of automakers reported increased sales in 2024, with several achieving new highs.

However, on the flip side, only a select few automakers managed to meet their sales targets for the previous year. Preliminary data indicates that only six automakers—BYD, Chery, Geely, Li Auto, NIO, and Xiaomi—ultimately accomplished their plans.

As the new year began, automakers unveiled their sales projections for the coming year, generally setting relatively "ambitious" targets, reflecting the heightened operational pressures anticipated in the auto market. Nonetheless, forecasts suggest that the growth potential of the auto market in 2025 will be significantly less than that of 2024, perhaps explaining why over 30 automakers initiated "big discount" promotions at the start of the year.

Leading Automakers Boast Higher Completion Rates

According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, passenger vehicle sales are projected to reach 23.6 million units in 2024, marking an approximate 8% year-on-year growth. Despite overall sales growth, a widening gap emerged between domestic and joint venture brands, with the latter generally experiencing year-on-year sales declines.

Among the six automakers that met their targets, all are domestic brands and quite representative. BYD, Chery, and Geely ranked among the top three domestic sales performers in 2024 and were also among the top five in 2023. Sustaining high growth rates with such substantial volumes over the past year underscores their strength.

Notably, BYD sold 4.272 million vehicles last year, marking a 41% year-on-year increase, while SAIC Group's sales fell from 5 million to 4.013 million. This shift propelled BYD past SAIC Group. Furthermore, in terms of revenue and market value, BYD has also surpassed SAIC Group, emerging as the de facto largest domestic automaker. Chery's growth was significantly fueled by exports, though new energy vehicles accounted for just over 20% of its sales. Conversely, Geely achieved success across multiple brands. Following this trend, dislodging the top three automakers from the market will be challenging.

Li Auto emerged as the leader among new energy vehicle startups with sales of 500,000 vehicles. NIO witnessed rapid sales growth starting from mid-year, and Xiaomi's first car garnered immense popularity, both showcasing the fruits of long-term accumulation. Another star brand, AITO, did not disclose its annual sales figures separately, but with Thalys selling over 420,000 vehicles, AITO should firmly secure the second position among new energy vehicle startups. Li Auto, NIO, and AITO are poised to be the top three new energy vehicle startups in sales next year, while Xiaomi, constrained by production capacity, may struggle to break into the top three despite launching a new SUV. However, compared to "Wei Xiaoli" (NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto), Xiaomi, which peaked right after its debut, harbors greater market potential.

Will Achieving This Year's Targets Be Even Harder?

Various indicators suggest that the market landscape will be even more challenging this year. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, predicts that domestic auto retail sales will reach 23.4 million units in 2025, marking a 2% year-on-year increase based on the continuation of 2024 policies. This growth rate is notably lower than last year's. Considering automakers' sales targets, the growth rates are substantial.

Starting with the sales "heavyweights," although BYD has not announced its sales target, institutions forecast that BYD's sales this year will reach 5.5 million vehicles. Geely's sales target for 2025 is 2.71 million vehicles, a roughly 25% increase compared to its 2024 total sales of 2.1765 million vehicles. Changan and Dongfeng Group have both set annual sales targets of 3 million vehicles for this year. Chery Group's sales growth rate will exceed the industry average by 10-20 percentage points, amounting to over 3 million vehicles. SAIC Group has yet to announce its sales target, but even if it remains the same as in 2024, the combined sales of these automaker groups will already surpass 20 million vehicles, excluding groups like FAW, GAC, and BAIC.

New energy vehicle brands have also set ambitious targets, with Li Auto aiming for 700,000 vehicles, NIO expecting at least 500,000, XPeng targeting over 400,000, and AITO aiming for 350,000, all doubling their previous targets. Hongmeng Zhixing has set a target of 1 million vehicles this year, also doubling its previous target. In contrast, Xiaomi's delivery target of 300,000 vehicles this year seems somewhat "conservative" given the commissioning of its new plant. With multiple models launching this year, Tesla's sales in the domestic market are still expected to trend upwards.

When these sales targets are aggregated, they clearly exceed the overall growth expectations for the auto market next year, indicating that achieving sales targets will generally be more challenging this year. Consequently, automakers have seized the opportunity at the year's outset to launch promotional campaigns, encompassing domestic, joint venture, and luxury brands, offering direct price reductions and trade-in subsidies for old cars.

In 2025, overseas market expansion will become a vital strategy for automakers to boost sales. However, compared to last year, expanding into larger automotive markets such as North America, Europe, South America, and Southeast Asia has become increasingly difficult for Chinese automakers. Amidst the dual pressure of internal and external factors, the lofty sales targets set by automakers this year reflect a harsher "survival" test.