01/13 2025 459
The annual CES 2025 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, USA, proceeded as scheduled. The LeTech reporting team traveled thousands of miles to the venue to conduct in-depth observations and reporting. I vividly recall the first day of CES 2025, when various manufacturers showcased their strengths and presented numerous cutting-edge automotive technologies.
BMW debuted its new-generation ultra-sensing intelligent cockpit at CES 2025—the groundbreaking BMW panoramic iDrive; Zeekr built the exclusive vehicle for WaymoOne based on the HAO architecture, the Zeekr RT; Hesai introduced the world's highest-end pure solid-state lidar, the AT1440. Many of these new technologies were indeed eye-catching, and quite a few originated from Chinese brands.
At the forefront of intelligence, automobiles and related technologies are playing an increasingly pivotal role at CES. As AI enters the physical era, gaining the ability to perceive, reason, and possess autonomous awareness, intelligent cockpits and autonomous driving will advance to the next stage.
(Photo courtesy of Electric Car Channel)
Both inside and outside CES, the automotive world is equally thrilling and in constant flux. Last year, we observed the local travel environment at the venues of MWC and IFA. Although new energy vehicles had far fewer opportunities to appear compared to those domestically, and charging and other energy replenishment facilities were scarce, it was evident that these overseas markets were not indifferent to new energy vehicles; they simply started a bit slower.
As one of the major automotive nations, the United States was the first to propose the development of new energy vehicles. It began to focus on electric vehicle research and development during the oil crisis in the 1970s, listing electric vehicles as a national project in 1971 and first exhibiting the CitiCar at the Washington Electric Vehicle Show in 1973. Over 50 years later, what is the state of new energy vehicles on American streets? This was also the focal point of our inspection this time.
Gasoline Vehicles Dominate, Tesla Emerges as the Sole New Energy Player
In fact, we arrived in the United States a week in advance, with San Francisco as our first stop.
The first thing that caught our eye was not a new energy vehicle, but a double-door convertible classic car. The specific model was already unidentifiable. The wheels might have been modified, and the paint surface was clean and tidy, making it still look very "youthful." Additionally, a Mercedes-Benz double-door hardtop sedan parked on the roadside was also eye-catching. It might be the American-spec 560SL, now a classic car nearing 40 years old.
(Photo courtesy of Electric Car Channel)
The reason behind the myriad of classic cars on the road is twofold. On one hand, local annual inspection and emission standards for automobiles are relatively lax. Many regions do not have mandatory annual inspection requirements. As long as the vehicle can drive normally, it can be driven on the road. Moreover, many cars are designed with durability in mind, generally having a long service life and remaining "vibrant" with proper maintenance.
On the other hand, influenced by the local automotive culture, many car enthusiasts have a special fondness for old cars. They like to preserve these vehicles with a sense of age. Simultaneously, in their view, second-hand cars and restoring old cars are more cost-effective than buying new ones.
Well-maintained classic cars with legendary status and low ownership often have very high market value and are deeply cherished by car collectors.
Japanese cars are also a common sight on San Francisco roads. After our investigation, we found that users of these Japanese cars can be broadly divided into two groups: one is Japanese car modification enthusiasts, whose main models are usually Honda Civics, which have great modification potential and abundant aftermarket resources to meet their needs for performance and appearance; the other group is more pragmatic, pursuing economy and practicality, with representative models such as the Toyota Corolla, Toyota Prius, Toyota RAV4, and Nissan X-Trail.
(Photo courtesy of Electric Car Channel)
According to the "2023 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Report" released by Car&Driver, six out of the top 10 best-selling vehicles in the United States are Japanese cars. However, these Japanese cars are not entirely imported. A significant portion of Japanese cars sold in the United States are produced in Mexico.
Unlike markets such as Germany and Japan, which have high loyalty to local brands, American local brands' economy models do not seem to be very popular, and their visibility on the road is not high. Instead, there are more Ford Mustang sports cars, Ford F-150 Raptor pickup trucks, and full-size SUVs such as the Chevrolet Tahoe and Cadillac Escalade. These models are generally equipped with large-displacement engines, better representing the "rugged" heritage of American cars.
Perhaps in the realm of economy cars, the energy-saving and durable attributes of Japanese cars have more influence and have gained recognition and trust from the local market. American local brands focus more on the high-end market with larger profit margins, and automakers are more willing to invest resources in it.
New energy vehicles are not absent. What we see most frequently is the "Tesla family," with numerous Model 3s and Model Ys, accompanied by some older models of Model S and Model X. We also spotted the Cybertruck, which is unavailable in China. Its body is indeed massive and aligns well with the local pickup truck culture.
(Photo courtesy of Electric Car Channel)
Counterpoint data reveals that among locally sold electric vehicles in the United States, Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y account for over 40% of sales. In the first quarter of 2024, they sold over 30,000 and 90,000 units, respectively.
Not long ago, a Cybertruck exploded at the Trump Hotel, drawing attention and later being praised by many media outlets for its "high body strength." Musk also came out to support the Cybertruck.
We also found some American local new force brand models besides Tesla, such as the Rivian R1 and Lucid Air, which have intriguing designs and are not seen in China.
It's worth mentioning that we also encountered some electric vehicles when hailing rides, such as the Tesla Model 3 and the Hyundai IONIQ 5, but they were not cheap. It's said that this price can get you a local full-size SUV with a pure gasoline engine.
(Photo courtesy of Electric Car Channel)
When we arrived in Las Vegas, the venue of CES 2025, the road traffic composition was similar to that of San Francisco. Overall, gasoline vehicles dominated the local roads, with high visibility and a rich variety of brands and models. In contrast, the composition of electric vehicles is quite monotonous, with most being Tesla brands. It's rare to see electric vehicles from other new forces and traditional brands.
As one of the major automotive nations, the visibility of new energy vehicles in the United States is not as low as we imagined. The diverse array of gasoline vehicle brands reflects a distinct automotive culture and market structure from places like Berlin and Barcelona. However, new energy vehicles are somewhat too monotonous, basically dominated by Tesla. Local new forces such as Lucid and Rivian have a weak presence, and the situation is vastly different from the prosperity of new energy vehicles at the CES 2025 venue.
Charging Difficulties and Limited Choices: Weak Energy Replenishment for New Energy Vehicles in the United States
The United States is also a country deeply intertwined with the automotive industry. Under the influence of a unique environment and culture, gasoline vehicles have always been the absolute protagonists on the road.
New energy vehicles have shown improvement led by brands such as Tesla and Ford, but their visibility is still not comparable to that of gasoline vehicles. Simultaneously, the popularity of electric vehicles varies from state to state. For instance, California has the highest penetration rate, reaching 42% in 2023, almost three times the national average. Closely following is Washington State, with a 2023 penetration rate of 18%.
Charging stations are a crucial factor for the proliferation of new energy vehicles. This is a classic "chicken or the egg" dilemma. China's early new energy vehicles took the lead, but due to the lack of corresponding charging infrastructure support, new energy vehicles faced resistance and were not favored by consumers.
According to data from the U.S. Department of Energy, as of early May 2024, there were a total of 52,660 public charging stations in the United States, with about 138,000 public charging piles, which is not a substantial base. In comparison, China has a cumulative total of 3.46 million public charging piles. Additionally, the local fast-charging system is very weak, with the vast majority being AC charging piles, and very few DC fast-charging piles.
A research report released by the Anderson Economic Group revealed that in the North American market, the cost of energy replenishment for many electric vehicles is not significantly different from that of gasoline vehicles. Taking the Tesla Model X as an example, it costs $13.5 to charge at home and $17.81 to charge outside, which is comparable to the fuel cost of a gasoline vehicle of the same class. With expensive and inconvenient charging, it's challenging to popularize electric vehicles.
Especially for car users who frequently travel long distances across states, electric vehicles are more like a difficult-to-serve "dilemma."
But in our view, the energy replenishment aspect is only one of the reasons. Another reason should be the lack of choices. There is almost only one competitive new energy automaker in the local area, which is Tesla. It's not that new forces such as Rivian and Lucid are not good, but the prices of the products currently sold by these automakers are generally very high. Products that compete with the Model Y and Model 3 have not yet emerged, and the supply of some new force brands is unstable. For example, Rivian was exposed for suspending deliveries due to a shortage of parts.
(Photo from Tesla)
For the American market, the Model 3 and Model Y are already relatively affordable new energy vehicles. Additionally, Tesla has contributed a substantial number of charging pile layouts to the local area in the United States, with about 7,500 charging piles, providing certain convenience for Tesla owners. Moreover, local automakers such as General Motors and Ford have also accessed Tesla's charging network.
Furthermore, due to factors such as high tariffs and inability to receive a $7,500 subsidy, it's challenging for Chinese independent brands to enter the American market. Although brands such as NIO, XPeng, and BYD have a great interest in the American market, the risks are too high, and large-scale launches have not been achieved so far.
Of course, to protect the local automotive industry, it's a common practice in the local market to block domestic automobiles through policies.
So it's no exaggeration to say that Tesla is almost the sole electric vehicle overlord in the local American market. With few competitors, Tesla has the confidence to dominate the American market for a long time. Perhaps you've recently seen videos of overseas bloggers reviewing Li Auto cars and singing high praise for these Chinese automotive products. However, considering realistic factors such as policies, Chinese cars are still unable to have a substantial impact on local automakers such as Tesla in the short term.
Becoming the New Protagonist of CES, Smart Cars are Being Increasingly Integrated with Consumer Electronics
After visiting the automotive exhibits at CES 2025, we found that even without Chinese automotive brands, international automakers such as BMW and Toyota are gearing up to accelerate the process of automotive electrification and intellectualization in order to compete with Tesla. Electrification and intellectualization are irreversible. Regardless of whether automakers accept such changes, they must quickly follow up.
BMW's debut of the BMW panoramic iDrive elevates the level of intelligent interaction in the automotive cockpit. It's rumored that this cockpit system will be equipped on the next generation of BMW electric vehicles, with lifelike and spatial AI interaction being the core selling points. Additionally, Toyota announced an important cooperation with NVIDIA at CES 2025. The next generation of automobiles will adopt NVIDIA's Drive AGX Orin supercomputer and DriveOS operating system to support advanced autonomous driving functions.
The Zeekr RT, built in collaboration with Waymo, also marks that Zeekr will become the first native Chinese automaker to enter the American market.
The CES 2025 exhibition presented numerous trends and technologies related to smart cars. For these traditional automakers who "join if they can't beat," cooperating with technology companies to quickly form intellectualization advantages will be an "army of smart cars" that cannot be ignored in the future. These brands are not subject to additional tariffs like Chinese automakers, and the next generation of electric vehicles can still compete with local new energy automotive brands in the United States.
(Photo courtesy of Electric Car Channel)
Simultaneously, Volkswagen, which cooperates with XPeng, and Leapmotor, which cooperates with Stellantis, will likely also empower their own brand models with Chinese new energy automotive technology, completing the export of Chinese technology.
However, delving into these details might seem somewhat speculative. Traditional automakers resemble colossal ships, difficult to steer in a new direction. They possess relatively limited technical prowess in the realm of smart cars. The various automotive solutions unveiled at CES 2025 currently remain mere aspirations, akin to castles in the air. Furthermore, exclusive media reports indicate that the mass production of the new Mercedes-Benz CLA had to be postponed due to hurdles encountered in the software development process. The precise timeline for witnessing the transformation of traditional automakers remains uncertain.
Numerous traditional brands continue to hesitate in abandoning their gasoline vehicle business. Many local American brands have advocated for delaying the ban on gasoline vehicle sales and maintaining investments in internal combustion engine technology research and development. The CES Consumer Electronics Show has been a staple for nearly 60 years. How many more CES exhibitions will pass before we witness the unequivocal ascendancy of smart cars?
Source: Leike Technology