Intelligent driving represents the future of Tesla.

As Tesla launched its Cybertruck trade-in service, an owner revealed on social platform X that a 2024 Cybertruck AWD Foundation Series, priced at $100,000, received an official trade-in estimate of $66,300 after being driven for 14,550 miles.

In other words, the Tesla Cybertruck depreciated by $33,700 in one year, equivalent to approximately RMB 243,300, with a yearly depreciation rate of 33.7%. Considering the vehicle's actual condition, the actual acquisition price would likely be even lower.

Image source: X

Another user stated that after driving their Cybertruck for 6,211 miles, the official only offered a trade-in estimate of $65,400, with a yearly depreciation rate exceeding 34%. In some private markets, the yearly depreciation rate even reached 45%.

To be frank, this resale value is quite disappointing. Notably, traditional pickup trucks like the Ford F-150, Toyota Tacoma, and Chevrolet Silverado typically depreciate by around 20% in the first year and reach a depreciation rate of 30%-50% within three years.

Image source: Tesla Official

The official acceptance of trade-ins indicates that the pressure from capital occupation and storage costs due to inventory backlog is immense, necessitating vehicle circulation and sales to promote capital recovery. However, you may not be aware that the Tesla Cybertruck was honored as the "best-selling vehicle over $100,000" last July, and the official had previously refused to accept trade-ins.

So, what exactly has the Tesla Cybertruck experienced this year?

Nearly two million reservations, just a joke?

In late November 2019, the Tesla Cybertruck made its official debut but encountered numerous production issues, including chip shortages, insufficient battery supply, and other raw material problems, as well as manufacturing challenges such as material processing and assembly, and the impact of the pandemic. These factors significantly impacted the Tesla Cybertruck, delaying its delivery by a full four years.

After its announcement, the Tesla Cybertruck opened for reservations, with consumers only needing to pay a $100 deposit. According to Elon Musk, demand for the Tesla Cybertruck was high, attracting over 1.9 million reservations before delivery, making the goal of "annual sales of 1 million vehicles" achievable.

Had Tesla been able to fulfill these 1.9 million orders, success would have been guaranteed.

Image source: Tesla Official

However, from the end of 2023 to March of this year, the total sales of the Tesla Cybertruck were only 46,000 units. Especially in the first quarter of this year, global deliveries of the Tesla Cybertruck were only 6,406 units, a 50.8% decrease from the 12,991 units delivered in the fourth quarter of last year, marking the largest decline since its launch.

The 1.9 million reservations were significantly inflated, and the actual performance of the Tesla Cybertruck falls far short of the goal of "annual sales of 1 million vehicles." It has not even fully utilized the factory's annual production capacity of 250,000 to 500,000 units, and sluggish sales have become a fact.

Faced with the poor performance of the Tesla Cybertruck, the official had no choice but to introduce a trade-in service while also reducing its production capacity.

Image source: Tesla Official

There are numerous factors affecting the sales of the Tesla Cybertruck, but in the view of Electric Vehicle News, there are two main reasons.

Firstly, there have been multiple quality issues with the product. Many owners have reported that the Tesla Cybertruck's body develops rust spots after exposure to rain. While the official claims that using a cleaner can remove the stains, as a pickup truck emphasizing practicality, it fails to provide users with peace of mind.

Furthermore, the Tesla Cybertruck has been recalled eight times since its launch, and the existing process defects and manufacturing issues have made it difficult to gain the trust of more users.

Secondly, the pricing strategy deviated from the initial promise. During the new vehicle launch event at the end of 2019, Musk stated that the starting price of the Tesla Cybertruck "would not exceed $40,000," but the final subsidized starting price exceeded $70,000, with the top-of-the-line version reaching $100,000.

If the final pricing of the Tesla Cybertruck had not exceeded $40,000, it would have inevitably threatened the market position of traditional fuel-efficient pickup trucks like the Ford F-150 Lightning. However, the current pricing has significantly narrowed the target audience for the Tesla Cybertruck, damaged the brand's reputation to some extent, and ultimately resulted in a large number of users canceling their reservations.

Not just the Cybertruck, Tesla's overall sales are weak

The brand positioning of the Tesla Cybertruck has already determined that its sales ceiling will not be high. Moreover, there is no news of the Tesla Cybertruck being launched in China and Europe, the two major global core markets. Tesla China has already made it clear that the Cybertruck will not be introduced and will only be used for promotional tours.

Electric Vehicle News has noticed that it's not just the Cybertruck; the sales data for the entire Tesla brand have shown a clear downward trend.

Image source: Tesla Official

Data shows that Tesla's global deliveries in the first quarter of this year were 336,700 units, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. For its main models, the Model 3 and Model Y, global deliveries were only 323,800 units, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, indicating a clear downtrend.

The global core markets for the Model 3 and Model Y are Europe and China. Let's start with the Chinese market. Tesla delivered 127,200 vehicles in the first quarter, making it the highest-selling first quarter since 2022. However, in April, Tesla only delivered 30,700 vehicles. The Model Y, which has long dominated the domestic SUV market, has been surpassed by two domestic SUVs, the Geely Xingyue L and the Song PLUS New Energy.

While Tesla's brand premium is still recognized by users, the entry of multiple domestic electric vehicles and the slow iteration speed of its own products have made the competitive landscape Tesla faces particularly complex, and it is expected that competitors will take away part of the market share.

According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, Tesla registered only about 36,000 new vehicles in the EU market in the first quarter of this year, far below the 66,000 registered in the same period last year, compressing the brand's market share to 1.3%. This occurred despite a 23.9% increase in sales of pure electric vehicles in the European market.

Image source: Tesla Official

The reasons for the gradual decline in sales in the Chinese market, such as slow iteration speeds and numerous competitors, also apply to the European market. In the first quarter of this year, Volkswagen Group registered a 4.8% year-on-year increase in new vehicle registrations, while Renault Group and BMW Group saw slight increases of 9.5% and 0.4%, respectively.

Of course, Tesla's sales decline in the European market is also affected by the automotive market environment. Musk's controversial remarks, the promotion of large-scale layoffs, and the impact of tariff policies have tarnished Tesla's brand image, with consumers in Sweden, France, Germany, and other regions gradually holding a negative view of Tesla.

Image source: Tesla Official

According to CaiLian Press, 94% of Germans stated that they would not purchase a Tesla again, and the fact that Tesla's cumulative sales in Germany plummeted by 41% in 2024 can indeed corroborate this point.

It was originally expected that Tesla could dominate the global pure electric vehicle market with the Cybertruck, but under the combined pressure of internal and external problems, even strong models like the Model 3 and Model Y cannot escape being besieged. If Tesla does not quickly introduce new products, its sales downturn may be difficult to curb.

Tesla bets heavily on autonomous driving, and the Cybertruck may become a disposable asset?

Compared to the Tesla Cybertruck, which received two million reservations, Electric Vehicle News believes that the new entry-level model, the Model 2, priced at approximately $30,000, is the true sales driver.

However, there are mixed opinions on whether the Model 2 will actually go into production. Half of the voices claim that it will be put into production this year, while the other half say it has been halted by Musk.

During the first-quarter earnings call on April 22, Tesla executives stated that the affordable vehicle project is progressing as planned but is limited by the existing production line, resulting in a slower-than-expected ramp-up in production capacity. The production plan is set to begin in June.

In other words, the earliest possible timeline for the new vehicle's launch and introduction into the domestic market is the end of this year. In other words, Tesla's sales mainstay this year will still be the Model 3 and Model Y.

However, in the view of Electric Vehicle News, Tesla's current aspirations are no longer focused on the vehicle market and sales figures. Autonomous driving and robotics are its ultimate goals.

Image source: Tesla Official

On October 11 last year, Tesla held the "We, ROBOT" event, its most recent large-scale press conference.

The focus of the entire event was closely related to automation and intelligence. The Cybercab and Robovan can achieve fully autonomous driving, and the humanoid robot Optimus has the ability to serve humans. The long-anticipated Model 2 did not appear.

Even though the entire event was filled with ambitious promises, it's not hard to see that Musk wants the industry to focus not on the cars themselves but on highly automated and intelligent products.

If Tesla truly develops in this direction, it will gradually shed its identity as an automotive brand and ultimately become a full-fledged technology and intelligence enterprise. At that time, the "SEXY" product line, the Cybertruck, and even the upcoming Model 2 may no longer be important to Tesla.

(Cover image source: Tesla Official)

Source: Lei Technology