The release of global mobile phone sales data for the third quarter of 2026 sparked widespread concern.

According to IDC, sales plummeted by 22% in Q3, with only 255.3 million units sold, marking the most severe decline ever recorded by IDC.

Counterpoint also reported a 20% drop in Q3 sales, representing the worst performance in over ten years.

Thus, there is no denying that a decline exceeding 20% is a stark reality.

Given this fact, the global mobile phone industry sold 70 million fewer units in Q3 alone compared to the same period last year. Considering the current average price of $581 (approximately 4,100 yuan), doesn't this translate to a staggering loss of nearly 300 billion yuan in just one quarter?

For mobile phone manufacturers, this is undoubtedly a severe blow. It is evident that most manufacturers have underperformed this year, with everyone feeling the pinch.

So, who should bear the responsibility for this downturn?

Undoubtedly, the primary culprit lies in memory chips. Over the past year or so, global memory chips, including DRAM and NAND flash memory, have witnessed an average price surge of four to five times.

The escalation in memory chip prices has significantly driven up mobile phone production costs, causing a major upheaval in the cost structure. Consequently, mobile phone manufacturers have either opted to discontinue certain low-end models to prevent losses or have substantially increased prices.

Both discontinuing low-end models and significantly raising prices have contributed to a sharp decline in mobile phone sales, resulting in the current decline exceeding 20%.

However, is memory chips truly the primary cause? Upon closer inspection, we find that the root cause of the significant price hike in memory chips is AI.

The explosive growth of AI has generated a colossal demand for memory chips, including server DRAM, HBM, and server SSDs, leading to a global shortage of memory chips. Consequently, memory chip prices have skyrocketed, prompting manufacturers to shift their production lines towards server data centers, thereby reducing supply to consumer businesses. As a result, mobile phone manufacturers are grappling with unstable supply, leading to shortages and price increases.

Thus, on the surface, memory chips appear to be the primary culprit for the sharp decline in mobile phone sales, but in reality, it is AI. AI must shoulder the blame, and there is no escaping this fact.

What is even more concerning for mobile phone manufacturers is that this wave of significant price increases has not yet been effectively mitigated. Agencies predict that it may persist until at least 2028.

Therefore, the coming year or so may continue to pose significant challenges for mobile phone manufacturers. It remains to be seen who can navigate these challenges successfully and who may face a major industry reshuffle.