From January to September 2026, all four major Japanese automakers posted sales declines in China, totaling just 1,678,800 vehicles—down 27.9% year-on-year—and were outsold by BYD alone, which moved 1,796,000 units. Over the same period, their combined China production came to 1,020,600 vehicles, a 32% year-on-year drop and a steep 63% plunge from their 2020 peak of roughly 2.8 million units, marking a new low since 2008.

Broken down by production volume, Honda built only 131,700 vehicles in China from April to September, plummeting 60% year-on-year and shrinking about 90% from its peak; Nissan produced 163,200, down 49%; Toyota produced 663,100, down 18%; Mazda bucked the trend with a 43% increase, but its small scale was not enough to change the overall picture. The Japanese brands' retail share fell further, from 23.1% in 2020 to 10.7% in September 2026—and on an overall basis it is already below 8%.

The Triple Logic Behind the Declines of Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Mazda

Toyota had the smallest decline: its hybrid base remains intact, and it is the only one responding to the market with organizational reform, implementing a "with China, for China" approach and delegating R&D decision-making authority.

Honda suffered the most, with repeated electrification strategy shifts (the Ye GT was delayed), the suspension of GAC Honda's Huangpu plant, fuel vehicle capacity cut from 1.49 million to 1 million units, and headquarters centralization leading to slow iteration.

Nissan had the steepest decline, with net losses exceeding 500 billion yen for two consecutive years, global layoffs and plant closures under "Re:Nissan," aging products, and a shift toward export bases. Mazda had the smallest scale and survives by relying on Changan technology, but it is hard-pressed to turn the overall situation around.

The Common Problems Behind the Declines of Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Mazda: Falling Behind in New Energy Vehicles and Erosion of Advantages

In September, domestic new energy vehicle penetration reached 67%, while the Japanese brands themselves were below 9%. Fuel efficiency has been matched by domestic plug-in hybrids (fuel consumption at low battery as low as 3L), durability has been undermined by lifetime warranties, and smart cabins, smart driving, and OTA have created a generational gap—loosening the three traditional cornerstones one by one.

At the strategic decision-making level, Japanese automakers' decision-making power is concentrated at their Japanese headquarters, and new vehicle development cycles run 4 to 5 years, while independent brands have reached a "monthly update" rhythm; about 70% of their fuel vehicle technology accumulation is difficult to reuse across fields in the electrification era, and their former strengths have instead become transformation burdens, with slow responses.

2026 and 2030 Sales Forecasts for Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Mazda

Chegulu predicts that extrapolating from the current trajectory for the full year 2026, Toyota will sell about 1.3 million vehicles, still first among Japanese brands but nearly halved from its 2020 peak; Honda about 400,000, down nearly 75% from its peak of 1.627 million; Nissan about 390,000; Mazda about 90,000; and the big four combined about 2.18 million.

U.S.-based MobilityGlobal predicts that the four automakers' production in China will fall another 47% to about 1.6 million vehicles. The Japanese share may fall from 23.1% in 2020 to single digits. Honda and Nissan will likely shut down some local production lines and turn them into export bases. Toyota will rely on hybrids and localization to hold 900,000 to 1.1 million vehicles, while Mazda will survive by relying on Changan technology.

However, Japanese HEV hybrid models' advantages in fuel efficiency and durability in low-temperature, no-charger scenarios are difficult for pure electric vehicles to replace, and they will coexist with domestic plug-in hybrids in long-term differentiated competition rather than being completely eliminated.

Year-End Car Buying Advice: In the Cold North, Hybrids Are Still Attractive

For users without charging piles, in severe cold in the north, who often drive long distances, and who value reliability and durability, Toyota THS and Honda i-MMD remain solid choices. At low temperatures, pure electric range shrinks and charging slows, while hybrids have no range anxiety, less low-temperature degradation, and low fuel consumption. The Corolla, Camry, RAV4 Hybrid, and Accord, CR-V, and Civic e:HEV have mature technology, and year-end dealer discounts are increasing, making their cost-effectiveness more prominent. If charging is convenient and use is mainly urban commuting, domestic plug-in hybrids are more economical; Japanese hybrids excel in peace of mind and durability, and are a high-quality answer for fuel-efficient gasoline vehicles in cold regions.