Ten months of 2026 have already passed, which means 83.3% of the year is gone.

Although there are still two months left before the year ends, for most companies, it's already clear whether they will hit their annual targets — especially for relatively stable businesses that are unlikely to see a sudden surge in the remaining two months. Automobiles are a prime example.

So, based on the data from the first 10 months, we can basically tell how confident major automakers are about hitting this year's sales targets.

Of course, since there are too many automakers out there, we'll focus only on the mainstream new forces. A quick look will give you a pretty good sense of where things stand.

As shown in the figure below, this is a compilation of the total sales of mainstream new forces from January to October, along with their full-year targets and annual target completion status.

Looking at the eight major new forces, only Zeekr has completed its target so far. Its target is 300,000, and it has actually delivered 320,000 vehicles. Full-year deliveries are expected to reach around 380,000–400,000, with a completion rate of about 130%, ranking first.

Second place goes to Leapmotor, which has delivered 772,700 vehicles so far, with a completion rate of 77.9%. What's more, Leapmotor is currently delivering over 100,000 vehicles per month, so its full-year result shouldn't be too far off. With a little extra push, it might still be possible to hit the target — but it's not a sure thing.

For the automakers further down the list, it's likely to be something of a struggle. NIO, for example, has a target of 456,000 vehicles and has completed 334,500 so far, with a completion rate of 73.3%. It still needs 120,000 more vehicles to reach its target, which means 60,000 per month over the next two months — a bit of a tall order.

Then there's Li Auto, Xiaomi, and XPeng, all with completion rates between 60% and 70%. To hit their targets, they would need a major surge in the remaining two months — which is estimated to be very difficult, if not outright unlikely.

For those below 60% progress, completing their targets this year would be harder than climbing to the sky. One company, for instance, has only completed 39.9%. To hit its target, it would need to deliver 300,000 vehicles per month over the next two months — that's 8–10 times its current delivery volume. Is that even possible?

It's clear that when these targets were originally set, most overestimated themselves and underestimated just how cold the automotive circle would be in 2026. In the end, by year's end, they were slapped in the face by their own sales figures. At present, only one company can be confirmed to have completed its target. As for the others, until the very last moment, no one dares to say they'll make it.