Text / Yang Xuejian

Source / NodeAuto

"For the first time in years, the 'Golden September and Silver October' phenomenon has all but vanished, and this may well become the new normal going forward," Gui Shengyue, vice chairman and executive director of Geely Automobile Holdings Limited, said bluntly at Geely Automobile's (0175.HK) third-quarter earnings call.

Data sourced from the Passenger Car Association

In September 2026, China's passenger car retail sales totaled 1.618 million units, down 28% year-on-year; in October, retail sales came in at 1.643 million units, down 27.1% year-on-year. From January to October, cumulative passenger car retail sales reached 14.978 million units, down 22.3% year-on-year. (Note: Data source is the Passenger Car Association; sales figures cover narrow passenger cars.) For the second consecutive month, the domestic market failed to display the traditional peak-season characteristics of "Golden September and Silver October," and the October decline exceeded the cumulative decline of the first ten months—a development that seems to have poured a basin of cold water on the auto market ahead of the fourth quarter.

On November 9, at the National Passenger Car Market Analysis and Seminar, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, commented on the September and October 2026 performance: "The traditional concentrated explosion of Golden September and Silver October will most likely give way to a normalized weakening. The core issue is that the auto market has entered an era of stock replacement: the pool of first-time buyers is shrinking, purchasing power is low, and high-end consumers are proving more resilient."

On one side are automakers feeling the water temperature most directly; on the other, research institutions coordinating macroeconomic data. When their conclusions converge, it becomes clear that the auto market's "Golden September and Silver October" peak season—a fixture for more than a decade—has truly become a thing of the past.

In NodeAuto's view, however, today's Chinese automakers have long since outgrown the domestic market alone. Even if "Golden September and Silver October" no longer exists, overseas markets have become a battleground every player must contest. After years of talk about going overseas, in the autumn of 2026, overseas markets have become a new world for Chinese automobiles.

China's Auto Market: A Picture of Unevenness

Tracking the sales data, NodeAuto found that the sense of anxiety that pervaded the auto market in past years seems to be fading, replaced by an increasingly clear state of differentiation: differentiation in sales by vehicle category, by energy type, by market structure, and an accelerating divergence among automaker camps.

The most obvious split is the retail gap between sedans and SUVs. In October, sedan sales fell 38% year-on-year, MPV sales fell 30%, and SUV sales fell 17%. The decline in sedans was nearly double that of SUVs. Traditional sedans—especially A-class fuel vehicles—once formed an important sales foundation for the auto market. Now, as the mass base for sedans loosens, the share of SUVs is growing increasingly heavy. The popularity of SUV products is itself showing differentiation, with more incremental growth coming from new energy SUVs.

Turning to the new energy vehicle market: in October, domestic retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 1.109 million units, down 13.7% year-on-year, yet the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger cars hit a record 67.5%. The Passenger Car Association pointed out that the rise in penetration was mainly because fuel vehicles were contracting faster, with retail sales of conventional fuel passenger cars falling 45% year-on-year. The divergence between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles has also accelerated over these two months. Combined with rising oil prices, more consumers are choosing to embrace new energy vehicles.

"Against the backdrop of pressure on the overall auto market in October 2026 and a year-on-year decline in retail sales, strong export performance has become a key variable supporting automakers' sales," Cui Dongshu said. He further analyzed: "The export structure shows an obvious characteristic of 'medium- and low-priced mainstream models,' which directly drove the more prominent performance of mainstream independent brands in this differentiation."

In October, passenger car exports reached 928,000 units, up 68.5% year-on-year, accounting for 35% of manufacturer sales—up from 19% in the same period last year. Of these, new energy passenger car exports totaled 582,000 units, up 144.7% year-on-year, accounting for 62.8% of total exports, an increase of about 20 percentage points from the same period last year. Cui Dongshu noted that, unlike the domestic market's preference for larger vehicles, the main export force leans toward medium- and low-priced models.

NodeAuto believes that as domestic automobile consumption demand enters the stage of stock competition, overseas sales expansion has become an important direction for the auto market. This also means that automakers capable of operating in both domestic and overseas markets will hold more initiative.

Statistics from the Passenger Car Association show that the top three in new energy exports in October were BYD with 165,000 units, Chery with 84,000 units, and Geely with 80,000 units. Among new force brands, it is also evident that those with an established overseas layout have clearly gained more initiative.

Differentiation Among New Force Brands Intensifies

The uneven hot and cold is particularly obvious on the automakers' sales posters for this "Golden September and Silver October." Leapmotor, XPeng, and Xiaomi were still able to release sales reports with relative ease; NIO, HIMA, and Zeekr, each with monthly sales of 30,000 units, know their own warmth and coldness in the current environment; and "good student" Li Auto falling below 30,000 units in October surprised many.

The camp of new force brands has become relatively clear. The first tier, dominated by Leapmotor, XPeng, and Xiaomi, shows a common characteristic: they have shifted toward system efficiency and overseas markets, no longer relying on the explosion of a single model.

Among them, Leapmotor delivered 105,000 vehicles in October, up 51% year-on-year, standing above the 100,000 mark for four consecutive months. NodeAuto believes the significance of Leapmotor's consecutive 100,000+ deliveries is not just that the numbers look good. Its overseas cooperation with Stellantis has brought Leapmotor a dual qualitative change in scale and brand, further diluting R&D, procurement, and manufacturing costs. In the most fiercely price-competitive mainstream price band, Leapmotor can be said to have achieved "big results."

Xiaomi Auto delivered more than 50,000 vehicles in October, another step up from "more than 40,000 vehicles" in September. The Pengcheng series, launched with deliveries beginning in September, expanded Xiaomi Auto's product matrix from pure electric to extended range, and terminal numbers grew along with it. No one will question Xiaomi Auto's marketing ability. What needs attention next is only whether the production capacity and service network of the new series can keep pace with the order rhythm, as well as Xiaomi's next moves in the pure electric lineup.

XPeng delivered 50,237 vehicles in October, up 22% month-on-month and 20% year-on-year, setting a new single-month high; the bigger surprise came from overseas markets, where overseas deliveries reached 13,326 units—also a record. For XPeng, it has already become the first among "NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto" to cross the threshold of "walking on two legs, domestic plus overseas." The good news is that the MONA L05, launched at the end of October with a limited-time promotional price starting at 139,800 yuan, will open up new mainstream price band space for XPeng after deliveries begin in November, and will also bring better-looking sales numbers.

Behind "Leapmotor, XPeng, and Xiaomi," 30,000 units has become a delicate threshold. Standing above it may not be easy, and falling below it would be terrible.

NIO delivered 34,246 vehicles in October, including 18,125 from the NIO brand, 8,383 from Onvo, and 7,738 from Firefly. Cumulative deliveries in the first ten months were 334,547 units, up 38.5% year-on-year. NIO's three brands have broadened user coverage, but the month-on-month decline in October is also reminding Li Bin that the popularity of NIO's flagship SUV needs new models to sustain it. Whether the long-range version of Firefly and the addition of battery-swapping models can form stable incremental growth still needs further observation. Recently, issues such as peeling sunroofs on the Firefly have also plunged this refined small car into quality-control controversy. And Onvo, as a volume brand, with monthly deliveries of less than 10,000 units, is hard to call passing. Perhaps this is exactly the root of why NIO's monthly sales of 30,000 units still cannot hide its anxiety.

HIMA, which has been plagued by troubles for the past two months, delivered 33,537 vehicles in October, a month-on-month decline. More noteworthy than sales are HIMA's off-field turmoil. First came a change in the cooperation model with AITO, with Seres regaining core speaking rights for AITO, while Huawei Terminal will lead the other "four brands" throughout. Just as this turmoil ended, right after the National Day holiday, the Zhunjie V800 brake pedal bracket incident put HIMA into an even bigger public opinion storm, and the truth still awaits the official investigation conclusion. But what is certain is that AITO remains an indispensable sales pillar for HIMA at present. After the storm, how the four brands plus AITO will develop will become a focus of continued industry attention.

Zeekr delivered 32,483 vehicles in October, up 51.6% year-on-year. Cumulative deliveries in the first ten months were 320,887 units, with a year-on-year increase of 94.4%, already hitting its annual target of 300,000 vehicles ahead of schedule. After a series of adjustments to organizational structure and product lineup, Zeekr has returned to a track of rapid growth. In NodeAuto's view, the market recognition of its high-end products is its most solid asset. As long as it stabilizes the product delivery rhythm, with Geely's layout in overseas markets, Zeekr is expected to return to the first tier.

Of course, there are also surprises. "Good student" Li Auto seems to have underperformed this time. After delivering 31,817 vehicles in September, its October deliveries dropped to 29,025 vehicles, falling below 30,000 for the first time. This is obviously not Li Auto's proper level, but on November 1, Li Auto still generously released its sales poster, seemingly unaffected by "not doing well on the test."

(Orders placed on November 10 for the new Li Auto i6 are already scheduled for delivery within 9-11 weeks.)

Li Auto's calmness actually has a basis. First, entering the second half of 2026, Li Auto has clearly accelerated the speed and frequency of product updates. In recent months, it has successively completed product updates for the Li L9, L8, and L6, and based on a new pure electric platform launched the Li i9, the new-generation MEGA Home version, and the new i6. Both the extended-range and pure electric product lines have simultaneously entered a concentrated renewal period. Second, the new Li Auto i6 has already received a flood of orders and will enter a period of high-intensity deliveries in the next two months. Although Li Auto officially only disclosed that "orders in 72 hours greatly exceeded the same period last year," according to rough estimates by third parties based on delivery cycles and monthly production capacity in the Li Auto App, total orders for the new i6 are at about 50,000 to 55,000 units. On November 10, NodeAuto tried to place an order for the new i6 in the Li Auto App and found that the estimated delivery cycle was 9-11 weeks. Calculating from this time, the latest delivery window for some orders may be scheduled for early 2027.

Final Thoughts

As the year-end approaches, the biggest suspense in the auto market is the completion rate of annual targets. In a trend where even "Golden September and Silver October" have become a thing of the past, there may not be many brands that can achieve big results this year.

As NodeAuto mentioned above, based on cumulative deliveries through October, Zeekr is currently the only brand that has clearly completed its annual target: 320,887 vehicles delivered in the first ten months, exceeding its annual target of 300,000 vehicles.

Leapmotor, with consecutive 100,000+ deliveries, has a 2026 target of aiming for 1 million vehicles. Cumulative deliveries in the first ten months were about 772,700 units, leaving about 227,300 units. Calculated over two months, it needs an average of about 114,000 vehicles per month. So far, Leapmotor's performance this year has already been stunning enough. If it ultimately truly achieves the sales target of 1 million vehicles, that will be a feat in the history of China's new energy vehicle industry.

For most other automakers and brands, completing annual targets in the remaining two months will be quite difficult.

Standing at this moment, perhaps the outline of the 2026 auto market has basically surfaced, but looking ahead five years, it is still difficult to assert what kind of landscape China's auto market will differentiate into. Perhaps those players who are slowly being eliminated from the game, looking back five years from now, will suddenly realize that the "Golden September and Silver October" that disappeared in 2026 was exactly that life-and-death dividing line?