The year’s largest A-share IPO is on the horizon.

On July 9, CXMT released its prospectus for the STAR Market, with both offline and online subscription dates scheduled for July 16 (stock code: 688825 / 787825). CICC is the underwriter. According to the offering timeline, preliminary pricing is set for July 13, the offer price will be announced on July 15, and payment will be due on July 20.

Dubbed an “aircraft carrier” of an IPO, CXMT plans to issue approximately 6.688 billion shares initially, representing about 10% of its total share capital post-offering, with the goal of raising RMB 29.5 billion. This marks the largest IPO on the A-share market this year and the second-largest on the STAR Market since its inception, following SMIC. CXMT’s scale is underpinned by its status as the “leading domestic memory manufacturer”—the sole domestic chip company mass-producing DDR5 DRAM, operating under an Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDM) model, and positioned at the nexus of AI’s soaring “memory capacity” demand and the upward cycle of the memory market. Multiple institutions project its post-listing market capitalization to range between RMB 1.5 trillion and RMB 3 trillion.

So, how much can one lot earn? On the STAR Market, a standard lot consists of 500 shares, with earnings contingent on the offer price and the first-day price surge. However, the offer price will only be revealed on July 15. A straightforward reverse calculation, based on the planned fundraising of RMB 29.5 billion and the issuance of 6.688 billion shares, suggests an offer price of approximately RMB 4.4. Yet, offer prices for large-cap stocks typically trade at a significant discount to their pre-listing valuations. Given institutional expectations for the post-listing stock price (ranging from roughly RMB 22 to RMB 45), a more realistic offer price range would be RMB 10 to RMB 15.

Building on this estimate: If the offer price is set at RMB 12, one lot would cost RMB 6,000. A 50% first-day price increase would generate approximately RMB 3,000 in profit, while a 100% increase would yield around RMB 6,000. If CXMT replicates the average first-day surge of 489.83% observed for STAR Market IPOs in the first half of the year, profits could approach RMB 29,000 per lot.

But don’t be swayed by averages. In the first half of the year, “high-profit” lots from companies like Zhenbao Technology and Lianxun Instruments generated RMB 200,000 to RMB 300,000 each, driven by their small market caps and high volatility. CXMT, with a massive 6.69 billion shares outstanding, will naturally see its per-lot earnings diluted by its sheer size. Moreover, first-day price gains for large-cap stocks are typically more muted. Notably, in the first half of 2026, no A-share IPOs fell below their offer prices on debut, with all experiencing first-day gains—a reflection of peak market enthusiasm. However, CXMT’s dual identity as a large-cap stock and a cyclical play means its volatility risk should not be underestimated.

Low lottery win rates, modest per-lot profits, and the potential for shares to trade below the offer price—these are the sobering realities underlying an IPO of this magnitude.