In today's era of rapid technological advancement, humanoid robots have emerged as one of the most promising and captivating topics in the field of artificial intelligence. From major tech expos to capital markets, the surge in popularity of humanoid robots continues to escalate, attracting widespread global attention and discourse.

In recent years, humanoid robots have witnessed significant strides in technology and application scenarios. At the Artificial Intelligence Conference, an array of 'Eighteen Guardians' comprising humanoid robots from various enterprises and institutions, such as the National-Local Collaborative Humanoid Robot Innovation Center, CloudMinds, Fudan University, Fourier Intelligence, Unitree Robotics, among others, showcased impressive dynamic coordination abilities, drawing a large audience.

Tesla's second-generation humanoid robot, Optimus, made its domestic debut, propelling the excitement to new heights. Many investors have even designated 2024 as the "Year of the Humanoid Robot." Compared to previous versions, this year's exhibited robots have demonstrated substantial progress, showcasing enhanced design, motion flexibility, and intelligent interaction capabilities.

Moreover, with the increasing participation of Chinese enterprises, the iteration speed and mass production potential of humanoid robots have markedly increased.

However, the journey from the laboratory to the factory, from the B2B sector to the B2C market, and ultimately into everyday households, remains a long one for humanoid robots.

In terms of application scenarios, the industrial manufacturing sector has provided preliminary validation opportunities for the commercialization of humanoid robots. Leveraging advanced visual neural networks and FSD chips, Tesla's Optimus can mimic human operations, performing intricate tasks such as handling delicate objects like eggs, moving heavy loads, and sorting batteries. Its bipedal walking speed has significantly improved, and trials are already underway in Tesla factories.

UBTECH's humanoid robot Walker S has also collaborated with FAW-Volkswagen, entering automotive manufacturing workshops to undertake bolt tightening, part installation, and transportation tasks. It is undergoing on-site 'training' in multiple factories to bolster R&D capabilities and product diversity, aiding factories in enhancing intelligence and automation levels.

While industrial scenarios lay the groundwork for humanoid robot development, home services represent their most promising application in the long run. Fudan University's 'Guanghua No.1' elderly care robot plans to conduct tests in multiple locations to enhance its elderly care capabilities and explore small-scale industrialization. CloudMinds' XR4 'Xiaozi' boasts flexible hand manipulation and can perform various delicate household chores, but its pre-sale price starting at RMB 399,000 poses challenges for transitioning from the B-end to the C-end market.

The complexity and openness of home service scenarios impose higher demands on the development of humanoid robots, necessitating greater investment in funds and technical support.

The evolution of AI technology provides critical support for the intelligence of humanoid robots, serving as the final piece of the puzzle. In home service scenarios, humanoid robots must tackle various complex tasks and adapt to changing environments, made possible by the advent of large models. By learning from vast amounts of text and images, large models endow robots with common-sense knowledge, enabling integrated end-to-end perception, decision-making, and execution, significantly boosting their intelligence.

For instance, after collaborating with OpenAI, Figure 01 can accurately identify edible objects amidst clutter and hand them to humans, as well as automatically recognize tabletop states and organize items, all thanks to the application of large models. OpenAI's revival of its robotics program and NVIDIA's release of multiple new robotics-supporting products underscore the importance tech giants attach to the integration of AI and robotics technology. They aim to explore new business models and revenue streams through participation in robotics technology development.

However, the implementation of humanoid robots does not solely hinge on intelligence enhancement but also faces numerous other challenges, including power and energy management, mechanical design and motion control, perception and processing, human-robot interaction and safety, cost, and usability. Among these, cost control is pivotal for large-scale promotion. The industry generally considers USD 20,000 as the cost threshold for mass promotion, whereas Tesla's Optimus currently has a hardware cost of approximately USD 50,000-60,000. Key components like frameless torque motors, reducers, force sensors, and lead screws account for a substantial portion of its parts value and possess high technical barriers. These components are not only the focus of cost reduction efforts but also critical areas for domestic substitution.

Take reducers as an example. Although domestic manufacturers like Leadshine Technology account for only 7% of global sales, they have broken the technological monopoly of foreign manufacturers and are catching up with international advanced levels in terms of reduction ratio and rated torque. To embrace the era of humanoid robots, Leadshine is actively expanding capacity and engaging in price wars to capture market share, impacting not only the company's performance but also the entire reducer industry ecosystem, reflecting the high priority and firm confidence of supply chain enterprises in the humanoid robot market.

In the lead screws sector, while Japanese and German enterprises dominate the mid-to-high-end market, domestic enterprises such as Wuzhou Xinchun and Best are also actively deploying efforts to break through technological barriers and achieve domestic substitution.

From a capital market perspective, the humanoid robot sector has shone as a star performer in the past three months, with the Wind Humanoid Robot Index surging 83%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index. Leading robot companies like Topstar and Effort have witnessed their market values double rapidly, and upstream core component suppliers have produced numerous outstanding stocks.

Behind this market boom lies the continuous improvement of underlying technologies, primarily large AI models, providing a solid technical foundation for the development of humanoid robots. Meanwhile, diversified application scenarios offer vast potential for innovation and development in humanoid robots.

According to institutional forecasts, the market size for humanoid robots in China is projected to grow rapidly in the future. By 2035, sales in B2B scenarios are anticipated to reach 755,000 units, with a market size of approximately RMB 75.5 billion; sales in B2C scenarios are expected to hit 1.256 million units, with a market size of around RMB 62.8 billion. Currently, some domestic manufacturers have commenced placing small-batch orders, and Tesla abroad is steadily progressing with its Gen2 technology iteration and batch sales plans. The dawn of the official commercial launch of humanoid robots is imminent.

In the humanoid robot industry chain, motion modules, control modules, perception modules, dexterous hands, batteries, and other structural components are all crucial. Among them, the core components of motion modules incur a relatively high cost. Reducers, as a key component, still exhibit significant variability and development potential in their technical routes and market landscape.

Currently, RV reducers offer performance advantages and are suitable for heavy-load joints in humanoid robots but come at a higher cost. Harmonic reducers excel in cost and size. Most mainstream manufacturers currently adopt a technical solution combining harmonic reducers and planetary reducers. However, which technical route will emerge as the mainstream remains to be further validated and selected by the market.

Humanoid robots hold broad development prospects but also confront numerous challenges and uncertainties. Technological breakthroughs, cost control, market promotion, and application scenario expansion all require concerted efforts from enterprises, research institutions, and governments.

With continuous technological advancements and maturing markets, humanoid robots are poised to become indispensable assistants in people's lives and work, bringing about tremendous changes and value to human society.