Sometimes, choice is more important than effort.

On September 10, seven models were officially launched on the same day, directly pushing the newly started "Golden September, Silver October" pace to a white-hot level.

SAIC Volkswagen Passat Pro, Chery Tiggo 8 PLUS, Baojun Yunhai, JYEV 07, Jetta VS7 Qianli Jiangshan Edition, Haval H6 Classic Edition, and WENJIE M9 Five-seater Edition. These models cover various submarkets such as sedans and SUVs, with price ranges ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of yuan.

As one act ends, another begins, and the general managers of various brands are also vying for attention in the traffic pool, trying to make an impression on the outside world for even a second longer. For some brands, the launch of new models at this crucial juncture will also influence their sales performance for the year to some extent.

Judging from the sales structure in August, the share of domestic brands is still expanding. As of August, the domestic retail share of domestic brands was 63.4%, an increase of 11.4 percentage points year-on-year; the cumulative share of domestic brands in 2024 was 58%, an increase of 7.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

At the same time, the production space of joint venture brands has been further compressed. In August, the retail share of German brands was 16.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5 percentage points, while the retail share of Japanese brands was 12.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2 percentage points. The market retail share of American brands reached 5.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9 percentage points. Luxury car retail sales reached 220,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 21% and a month-on-month increase of 3%. In August, the retail share of luxury brands was 11.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 3 percentage points, and the retail share of the traditional luxury car market declined significantly.

In terms of pricing structure, the entire automotive consumer market is also beginning to polarize. From January to August 2024, according to the retail sales data from the China Passenger Car Association, models priced below 150,000 yuan accounted for 50.9% of the overall automotive market, while models priced between 150,000 and 300,000 yuan accounted for a cumulative 33.9% of the market, with models priced between 150,000 and 200,000 yuan accounting for 16.7% and models priced between 200,000 and 300,000 yuan accounting for 17.2%.

In the context of such consumer downgrading, automakers' product planning becomes particularly important, and it is more of a test of macro control capabilities in market trends. Sometimes, choice is more important than effort.

Sink or rise

Judging from the models launched on September 10, although the categories vary, all models except WENJIE M9 and JYEV 07, which are priced above 200,000 yuan, are priced in the 100,000 yuan range, with fuel vehicles accounting for the majority.

Automakers have converged on the broader third- and fourth-tier consumer markets, and even new-energy vehicle makers, which symbolize smart and high-end vehicles, are starting to consider the proposition of sinking down the market.

On the eve of the Chengdu Auto Show, Xpeng timely launched the MONA M03, pricing it at 120,000 yuan. After receiving a large number of orders, Wang Fengying drank her first glass of wine at the victory celebration. On the upcoming September 19, NIO's second brand, Leda L60, will also be officially launched, and its starting price may be further lowered to below 200,000 yuan.

Currently, first- and second-tier cities have already become highly electrified, with BYD's mainstream sedans and SUVs, as well as Tesla's two models, firmly occupying the top-selling lists in these cities. In third- to fifth-tier cities, BYD's mainstream new energy vehicles, as well as trendy urban commuter cars, are beginning to replace popular joint venture fuel vehicles.

To a large extent, new energy vehicle enterprises are also vying for this share. However, according to internal research conducted by some brands, in the consumption mindset of third- to fifth-tier cities, fuel vehicles still play an irreplaceable role. This is also why, despite SAIC Volkswagen's overall poor performance in August, the Lavida family sold a total of 28,542 units, maintaining its position as the top-selling fuel vehicle in the fiercely competitive market.

In addition to the remaining dominance of traditional established enterprises, in the mainstream submarkets below 150,000 yuan, almost all sales champions in segments such as A0, A, and SUV are held by BYD.

To layout this market, the first question to consider is how much share can be carved out from BYD's sales, and how much advantage the product has over BYD's plug-in hybrids.

At the other end of the market spectrum, Li Auto and WENJIE, led by extended-range electric vehicles, are gradually dominating the luxury brand market. In August, with the exception of Audi, which maintained slight growth thanks to significant terminal discounts, both Mercedes-Benz and BMW, which withdrew from the price war, saw declines in sales.

It is noteworthy that Mercedes-Benz's primary sales are concentrated in the C-Class and GLC, while Audi similarly relies heavily on the A6L and Q5L. From a pricing perspective, they are even inferior to Li Auto and WENJIE.

At this point, the overall landscape of the automotive market has gradually taken on a new look. Plug-in hybrids priced below 150,000 yuan dominate, while extended-range electric vehicles priced above 300,000 yuan gain the upper hand. Joint venture fuel vehicles sink down to compete in the price range of domestic brands, while pure electric vehicles priced in the 150,000 to 200,000 yuan range begin to shrink significantly, entering an even redder ocean.

Policy intensification, three months of fierce competition

In addition to a large number of new car launches, relying on the banner of promoting consumption through automobiles, "trade-ins" have once again been intensified during this year's Golden September, Silver October.

On September 10, Foshan initiated a new round of trade-ins. In terms of scrapping and replacing old cars, the subsidy for eligible new energy passenger cars was increased from 10,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan, and the subsidy for purchasing fuel passenger cars with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less was increased from 7,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan. On the same day, Hangzhou announced an increase in subsidies for automobile trade-ins: the maximum subsidy for replacing a new car in Hangzhou was increased from 12,000 yuan to 18,000 yuan.

Since the end of August, more than 15 provinces and cities, including Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Foshan, Chongqing, Anhui, Zhejiang, Shanxi, Hubei, Hunan, Qinghai, Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Jiangxi, have issued the latest automobile "trade-in" policies. Compared with the scrapping and replacement subsidy standards issued in the first half of the year, the policy incentives have been further strengthened this time around.

The latest data from the National Automobile Trade-in Platform shows that as of 10:00 a.m. on August 31, more than 800,000 applications for automobile scrapping and replacement subsidies had been received, with approximately 340,000 new applications submitted in the past month.

Experts say that since the issuance of the "Several Measures to Support Large-scale Equipment Upgrading and Trade-ins of Consumer Goods" on July 25, subsidies for automobile scrapping and replacement have been significantly increased, with daily applications for scrapping and replacement subsidies exceeding 10,000. This will play a positive role in promoting the automobile market over the next four months of the year and help further unleash consumer vitality in the automobile market.

Guided by policy, most enterprises have followed suit and introduced corporate trade-in subsidies, mostly ranging from 3,000 to 5,000 yuan. SAIC Motor's Roewe and Flying Ever brands announced that they would invest more than 550 million yuan to subsidize multiple models such as the Roewe D7 EV and Flying Ever R7. Consumers can apply for an additional 3,000 yuan vehicle purchase voucher on top of the transaction price of the vehicle.

GAC Aion offers an additional 3,000 to 10,000 yuan in trade-in subsidies on top of the Guangzhou subsidy; Great Wall also offers 5,000 yuan in official trade-in subsidies, while BYD's maximum trade-in subsidy is as high as 28,000 yuan.

SAIC-GM-Wuling introduced new policies for models such as the Xingguang S, Hongguang MINIEV, and Bingguo, offering local subsidies ranging from 8,000 to 23,000 yuan. Baojun Automobile stated that the comprehensive trade-in subsidy for the entire Yueye series is 18,000 yuan, reducing the price after subsidies to as low as 62,800 yuan.

Starting from a change in demand-side behavior and driving supply-side transformation, the "price war" in the automotive consumer market has evolved into a price bonanza for consumers.

With a series of cash discounts and trade-in subsidies, most models, even those that are newly launched, can offer discounts of up to 20,000 yuan, with some even reaching 30,000 yuan.

It is foreseeable that whether it is a fuel vehicle or a new energy vehicle, whether it is a joint venture brand or a domestic brand, this is probably the best time for consumers to make automotive purchases.

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