Xiaopeng Motors will launch its first extended-range vehicle by the fourth quarter of 2025. Currently, three key information points have been confirmed by Xiaopeng Motors insiders and relevant supply chain sources: 1. The first extended-range vehicle will be based on the Xiaopeng G9 prototype and positioned as a large SUV; 2. The price will be above 200,000 yuan; 3. Dongan Engine will provide extended-range parts.

Let's talk about something interesting. Nowadays, more and more automakers are pushing extended-range vehicles, and the technology is becoming increasingly competitive while prices are dropping. What technological advancements does Xiaopeng's extended-range vehicle have? How will the future 'extended-range' G9 perform? Will the price drop?

Did Xiaopeng choose the worst technology for its extended-range vehicle?

To answer the first question, we need to start from the core of the extended-range system, which is the technical merit of the extended-range engine. Currently, Xiaopeng has confirmed that Dongan Engine will be its supplier for extended-range engines, but it hasn't specified which model will be used. Let's deduce from the seven models that Dongan Engine has already verified in the market.

If classified by displacement, the 1.2L M12TDE extended-range engine can be immediately ruled out. Considering the future product positioning of the 'extended-range' Xiaopeng G9 as a 'large SUV,' acceleration performance must keep up. Although the extended-range engine does not participate in driving, horsepower depends on the power of the drive motor, but in terms of power supply efficiency, a small-displacement extended-range engine is undoubtedly inferior to a large-displacement one. Therefore, this small-displacement extended-range engine will definitely not meet the demand.

Considering AITO M7, LIXIANG L7, and LANVIGATOR FREE, as well as potential future competitors like LIXIANG L9 or AITO M9, the new car's extended-range engine will likely be 1.5L or above. This narrows down the options to five models: M15NTDE (1.5T displacement), M15NE/M16NE (1.5L and 1.6L displacement), M15KE (1.5L displacement), and N20E (2.0L displacement). However, from the perspective of compatibility with Xiaopeng G9, the final choice is likely to be the M15NTDE extended-range engine.

Next, let's take a closer look at this extended-range engine. This model adopts a lightweight and compact integrated design and utilizes a dual-injection system similar to traditional gasoline engines. Each cylinder is equipped with two nozzles, one for direct injection into the cylinder and another for traditional port injection. This design aims to enhance cylinder efficiency, and Atkinson cycle and friction-reducing technologies help improve efficiency. With a peak power of 90 kW, it enters its maximum torque range (220 Nm) at 2,500 rpm, and its thermal efficiency is around 42%. Overall, the technology is relatively straightforward.

It's worth noting that this model is also the same extended-range engine used in the 2024 LANVIGATOR FREE. Based on a similarly weighted configuration to Xiaopeng G9, it achieves a minimum fuel consumption of 6.69 liters per 100 km under WLTC conditions, equating to approximately 0.5 yuan per km, which is already very close to the cost of using a gasoline vehicle. Additionally, the 'extended-range G9' is positioned as larger than the Xiaopeng G9, suggesting a heavier weight. Therefore, it can be reasonably inferred that Xiaopeng's first extended-range vehicle will not have a low fuel consumption, and its fuel costs may even exceed 0.5 yuan per km. From this perspective, it may not be as cost-effective as a pure electric G9.

On the other hand, looking at the performance of extended-range vehicles, take AVATR 07, which is scheduled to be launched at the end of this month, as an example. Its Kunlun extended-range HE 1.5T dedicated engine boasts a thermal efficiency of over 42%, reaching 44.39%. It is also equipped with electronic oil pump technology and engine stop-start piston active control technology, both of which are firsts in the extended-range vehicle market. These technologies effectively suppress and reduce engine noise and vibration, setting it apart from traditional extended-range engines.

LIXIANG AUTO, another competitor demonstrating the viability of the extended-range route, initially used Dongan Engine's 1.2L three-cylinder extended-range engine in its LIXIANG ONE. However, the entire product line has since transitioned to a new engine supplied by a joint venture between LIXIANG AUTO and Xinchen Power. The flagship L2E15M model boasts a maximum power of 113 kW and employs Miller cycle technology, which enhances efficiency by achieving an expansion ratio greater than the compression ratio through early intake valve closure. While this may compromise maximum engine performance, it is a safe and reliable choice for an extended-range engine prioritizing efficiency. As the parent company of this extended-range engine, LIXIANG AUTO can directly participate in its research and development, adjusting based on market feedback and product performance.

In conclusion, to succeed and stabilize in the extended-range market, highly compatible extended-range engines are essential, and in-house research and development is the inevitable path. This explains why companies like AITO, AVATR, and LIXIANG AUTO have chosen not to rely heavily on suppliers for their extended-range engines but instead to conduct in-depth in-house research and development. In this light, Xiaopeng's initial foray into the extended-range market with a relatively unremarkable approach, especially considering its first extended-range vehicle is based on a reverse-engineered G9 ('oil-from-electricity'), may face challenges in optimally integrating the extended-range engine with the entire powertrain and electrical architecture. This reverse-engineering process could prove more painful than developing the system from scratch.

This brings us to another player in the extended-range market, Xiaomi Automobile, which has already embarked on developing its own extended-range vehicles. According to plans, Xiaopeng's first extended-range vehicle will be launched by the fourth quarter of 2025, while Xiaomi's will follow in 2026. Both companies will spend three years refining their extended-range products. However, Xiaomi's approach differs from Xiaopeng's in that its first extended-range vehicle will not be a modified version of an existing model but a brand-new product based on extended-range technology co-developed with Beijing Automotive Group. This can be seen as a product of forward-looking research and development. As for the specific energy consumption performance of these two vehicles, we will have to wait for further official disclosures.

Internal space of the 'extended-range' G9 may shrink

Xiaopeng Motors is all set to enter the extended-range market. Whether it will receive the same market enthusiasm as MONA M03 remains to be seen, depending on how much sincerity Xiaopeng injects into this new vehicle. MONA M03's success in surpassing 100,000 orders in just one month can be attributed to its low price, offering a range of up to 620 km for less than 130,000 yuan, with entry-level models starting at just over 110,000 yuan and top-spec models with advanced autonomous driving capabilities priced at 155,800 yuan. In the 100,000-150,000 yuan price range, MONA M03 is currently the only vehicle to bring advanced autonomous driving capabilities within reach.

From another perspective, MONA M03's success represents Xiaopeng's strategy of trading low prices for market share, particularly in the context of offering advanced autonomous driving capabilities at this price point.

Following this logic, Xiaopeng could easily apply the same strategy to its extended-range G9. However, the positioning of the Xiaopeng G9, which targets family travel and prioritizes a comfortable ride experience, would likely shift the formula to 'low price + experience.'

At this point, some may wonder if the increased development costs of the extended-range G9 will necessitate a higher price tag than the current Xiaopeng G9 to ensure profitability. However, the current extended-range vehicle market has already provided an answer. Take AITO M7 as an example. The 2022 model's entry-level price was 289,800 yuan, while the fully loaded flagship version cost 379,800 yuan. Despite selling only 75,000 units throughout the year (around 6,000 units per month), the 2024 model, introduced a year later, saw its entry-level price drop to 249,800 yuan, with the most expensive version priced at 329,800 yuan, representing a decrease of up to 60,000 yuan. Following this price adjustment, the vehicle secured over 50,000 bookings within a month of its launch, equivalent to nearly a year's worth of sales in a single month.

Similarly, when LANVIGATOR FREE was introduced in 2021, it offered both pure electric and extended-range options, with the extended-range version priced nearly 10,000 yuan cheaper. This price difference does not even account for the potentially larger discounts at dealerships. After three years of market refinement and considering factors such as cost control, LANVIGATOR now primarily promotes its extended-range models. The extended-range engine was swapped from the previously used SFG15TR model manufactured by Xiaokang Power to one provided by Dongan Engine, and the starting price was adjusted from 333,600 yuan to 228,900 yuan, representing a decrease of over 100,000 yuan.

Based on the current state of the extended-range vehicle market, the future price of Xiaopeng's extended-range G9 will undoubtedly be lower than that of its pure electric counterpart. Moreover, starting from the current entry-level 570Pro model (with a guide price of 263,900 yuan and a dealership price of 243,900 yuan), the guide price would need to drop by at least another 60,000 yuan to compete effectively, settling around the 200,000 yuan mark, which aligns with Xiaopeng Motors' pricing expectations for its first extended-range vehicle.

If the 'extended-range' G9 indeed experiences a 'price drop,' will it experience the same level of popularity as MONA M03? It's unlikely to be replicated, as MONA M03's success stemmed primarily from its low price point and the advanced autonomous driving capabilities it offered at that price. In contrast, the core competitiveness of the extended-range G9 will likely lie in areas such as energy efficiency and interior space. While it's too early to compare energy efficiency, it's certain that the interior space will be compromised. Imagine fitting an extended-range engine and a suite of supporting components into a chassis originally designed for a pure electric vehicle. The chassis layout will inevitably undergo adjustments, which could be detrimental to the interior space of the Xiaopeng G9, which already does not excel in this aspect. Therefore, how much Xiaopeng Motors can stretch the vehicle to accommodate the extended-range components and improve interior space utilization remains to be seen.