Introduction

"I had no choice before, but now I don't need to choose."

"With a budget of 250,000 yuan, how should I choose a mid-range electric SUV?"

In August, as China's new energy passenger car retail penetration rate once again surpassed the 50% mark, the tide of electric vehicle transformation continued to intensify. The opening line of this article has been asked with increasing frequency.

However, for a long time, I struggled to find a satisfactory answer.

This is because potential consumers in this price range are often the most demanding, practically defining the term 'wanting it all.'

A robust electric drive system, reliable real-world range, mature smart features, exceptional driving dynamics, spacious interiors, a positive brand image, convenient charging experiences, transparent purchase processes, efficient after-sales services...

After sifting through the options, it seems only one contender meets these criteria: Tesla Model Y.

In comparison, many domestic brands have launched competing models, but due to their shortcomings, they often struggle against this 'giant' and ultimately fall short.

Looking at the numbers, Tesla Model Y sold 29,912, 22,537, 47,917, 26,356, 39,985, 41,110, 36,299, and 45,330 units in China in the first eight months of this year. Despite some fluctuations, sales have been relatively stable, even peaking at nearly 50,000 units in some months.

It's no exaggeration to say that Tesla Model Y has consistently held a dominant position in the mid-range electric SUV market. However, starting this 'Golden September,' with the entry of several formidable competitors, Tesla Model Y's golden days may be numbered.

Don't Overhype Tesla Model Y

Having laid the groundwork, let's discuss why Tesla Model Y has become such a popular choice and a bona fide hit.

The reason is straightforward.

Externally, it hasn't faced any significant competition and has been able to dominate its niche.

Internally, its comprehensive capabilities are impressive. Coupled with Tesla's brand prestige, it enjoys optimal timing, location, and human resources, leading to its popularity.

However, I still urge caution against overhyping it.

"The interior design is too austere, the smart voice assistant is practically non-existent, the navigation system is subpar, the rear seats are cramped and uncomfortable, and advanced driver-assist features are just empty promises. There's plenty of room for improvement, but at Tesla's snail's pace of innovation, who knows when that will happen?"

"People bought Tesla Model Y because they had no other choice. If I had to rate this car, I'd give it at most 75 out of 100. I hope a domestic brand can create a mid-range electric SUV that truly understands Chinese consumers."

These scathing critiques, genuinely voiced by a friend and Tesla Model Y owner, highlight the car's shortcomings and areas for improvement.

Objectively speaking, as a 'global car,' Tesla Model Y is far from perfect and hardly qualifies as a suitable 'family car,' given its lackluster localization efforts.

Against this backdrop, domestic brands stand a chance to catch up.

As further evidence, let's turn to the mid-range electric sedan market, where Tesla Model 3's decline serves as a cautionary tale for Tesla Model Y.

Reviewing the numbers, Tesla Model 3 sold 9,969, 7,604, 14,481, 5,065, 15,230, 18,151, 9,928, and 18,126 units in China in the first eight months of this year.

At first glance, these numbers don't seem terrible, but it's worth noting that Model 3 used to sell over 30,000 units per month. Under the siege of domestic brands, it has significantly lost its luster.

,"Last year's minor updates failed to turn the tide.

Recently, a scathing commentary emerged: "It's a miracle that this American EV maker has survived on just two models. If it doesn't make targeted changes in China, it will surely suffer a severe blow in the fiercely competitive Chinese auto market."

In other words, Tesla Model 3's market share is dwindling, and Tesla Model Y's position is precarious, particularly as it faces its toughest challenge yet.

Perhaps feeling the pressure or unable to afford the consequences of Tesla Model Y's failure, the story takes a new turn this month.

Rumors suggest that an updated five-seat Tesla Model Y will debut in China in Q1 2024, featuring changes to its exterior, dimensions, interior, autonomous driving hardware, and battery capacity. A seven-seat version is expected in Q4 2024.

But the question remains: Can it turn the tide?

My Heart Races at the Sight of the 'Four Dragons'

'Tesla Model Y's dominance in China is coming to an end.'

This bold statement, sure to spark debate in the comments section, stems from the recent launches of several domestic mid-range electric SUVs.

Collectively known as the 'Four Dragons' – Zhijie R7, Ledao L60, Zeekr 7X, and AVATR 07 – these SUVs are here to challenge Tesla Model Y.

Remember when we said Tesla Model Y had no serious competition? Well, they're here, and there are four of them.

Recall the criteria for a desirable mid-range electric SUV: a robust electric drive system, reliable range, mature smart features, exceptional driving dynamics, spacious interiors, a positive brand image, convenient charging, transparent purchase processes, and efficient after-sales services.

Measured against these criteria, the 'Four Dragons' are well-prepared.

In terms of product capabilities, Zhijie R7, Ledao L60, Zeekr 7X, and AVATR 07 represent the pinnacle of domestic offerings in this segment. Within a reasonable cost, they are fully equipped.

,"In fact, since their inception, the 'Four Dragons' have aimed to rival Tesla Model Y, offering refinement, spaciousness, luxury, performance, and a deeper understanding of Chinese consumers. Even against the updated version next year, they are ready to compete head-on.

Unlike previous 'Model Y killers,'

the 'Four Dragons' have garnered widespread recognition among consumers, further narrowing the gap with Tesla.

It's foreseeable that to dethrone Tesla Model Y, they will offer competitive pricing, demonstrating their sincerity, determination, and targeted strategies.

, Zhijie R7 made its debut on September 10, Beijing time; Ledao L60 followed on September 19; Zeekr 7X on September 20; and AVATR 07 on September 26.

For some reason, watching the 'Four Dragons' go all out inspires a sense of excitement within me.

Who can resist the thrilling narrative of 'overthrowing the old king and crowning a new one,' especially when it involves domestic brands asserting their dominance?

I'm increasingly convinced that whether it's Zhijie R7, Ledao L60, Zeekr 7X, or AVATR 07, they all pose a significant threat to Tesla Model Y.

The latter is facing its toughest challenge since entering the Chinese market.

As for how far Tesla Model Y will fall, considering Tesla Model 3's trajectory, its monthly sales could potentially drop by 10,000 to 15,000 units under the siege of the 'Four Dragons,' settling at around 20,000 to 25,000 units.

Moreover, more competitors like the 'Four Dragons' will undoubtedly emerge, targeting Tesla Model Y.

It's no exaggeration to say that starting this 'Golden September,' Tesla Model Y's golden days are numbered.

From a consumer's perspective, 'I had no choice before, but now I don't need to choose.'

Of course, critics may argue, 'No matter how much you criticize Tesla Model Y, it remains the leader in the mid-range electric SUV market.'

For now, it's undeniable; but in the future, who can guarantee its position?