In previous years, the resale value of iPhones was often praised. If used carefully and with minimal wear and tear, an old iPhone that has been used for about 2 years can often fetch more than 60% of its original price on the second-hand market. However, in recent years, the resale value of iPhones has been declining annually. This year, there were even price drops on the first day of pre-sale. While it's good news for users to have the opportunity to buy the latest iPhone below its original price at the initial stage, it's not so good for the "scalpers." Logically, there should be ample room for speculation on the price of the iPhone 16 series this year, but the "scalpers" still went for it, and the result is predictable.

Starting from the official launch day yesterday, a reporter interviewed several "scalpers" outside an Apple Store. The news is that except for the iPhone 16 Pro Max, which can be resold at a markup of a few hundred yuan, the other three models of the iPhone 16 series are not being accepted. Even for the Max version, not all capacities are being taken. For example, the 1TB version is not accepted, and apart from the gold color version, which can be resold at a markup of around 600 yuan, the other colors have a maximum markup of 400 yuan.

Furthermore, the market conditions vary outside each Apple Store. In some places, even the gold Max version is only being accepted at a markup of 400 yuan. Based on this, it is likely that after about a week, the Max version will no longer have any resale value. Regular users understand this situation, and the "scalpers" who are constantly involved in this circle have no reason not to. However, why do they keep pushing forward? There are even videos online showing "scalpers" claiming to have acquired over 100 iPhone 16 Pro Max devices, which means they have invested over a million yuan.

How likely are these "scalpers" to make a profit? Personally, I think it's very unlikely, and they may not even be able to break even. Why do I say that? The most important premise for speculating on a product and increasing its price is that it must be both highly sought-after and scarce. The former condition can be met, but the latter basically does not exist. The supply of iPhone 16 should be considered ample, and orders can be placed through official channels at any time, with the latest shipment time not exceeding one month. This is precisely the worst-case scenario for "scalpers."

Secondly, since the products are being acquired at a markup, they must be resold at an even higher price. Taking the iPhone 16 Pro Max as an example, if it is acquired at a markup of 400 yuan, it must be resold at least at a markup of 400 yuan. Personally, I think the "scalpers" have underestimated the rationality of Apple users. In the era of information sharing on the internet, everyone knows the current market situation of the iPhone 16 series. Even if someone can't resist the urge to get a new device, such people are becoming increasingly rare. Additionally, the lifespan of iPhones is already long enough, making it less urgent for many people to upgrade their devices.

The mindset of "buy if available, wait if not" has become widespread. If a "scalper" has dozens or even hundreds of iPhone 16 devices in their hands and fails to sell them all within a week, they will have to lower their prices to avoid losing even more money. Last year, some people were able to buy the iPhone 15 Pro Max from "scalpers" at below its original price during the initial stage. Many "scalpers" ended up breaking even, having wasted a significant amount of time for no profit.

Do you also think that the "scalpers" speculating on the iPhone 16 series this year are likely to lose money again?