Source | Bohu Finance (bohuFN)

With the reputation of the technology Spring Festival Gala, Apple's new product launch event is gradually converging with the Spring Festival Gala.

The 'strongest standard version of the iPhone in history' complements the traditional 60hz, and the live broadcast is filled with spliced clips. As Apple's first 'AI phone,' consumers in mainland China don't even have a definite time to experience it. The most popular related hashtag after the event was #Movie Hurricane Sends iPhone 16 Pro to All Employees#.

This has made many people nostalgic for Apple's press conferences held in the Fangcao Center and Cupertino Theater.

In contrast, Huawei's press conference sparked significantly more discussion. Yu Chengdong pulled out the 'Mate XT Extraordinary Master' (hereinafter referred to as 'Mate XT') from his pocket and unfolded it slowly, reminiscent of Steve Jobs' iconic moment of taking out a Macbook from a briefcase. With a 10.2-inch screen, a 3.6mm ultra-thin body, and a weight of 306 grams, the Mate XT has clearly captivated the audience. Yu Chengdong didn't say it, but the phrase 'far ahead' was ubiquitous on the scene.

On social media, disappointment with Apple and praise for Huawei are two sides of the same coin. As the definer of smartphones, Apple has consistently lagged behind its peers in the AI era, becoming increasingly conservative in its products. In contrast, Huawei has taken bolder steps after sanctions, both in foldable technology and AI.

However, the starting price of 19,999 yuan makes it difficult to discern whether this eye-catching product is the prelude to a new era or just a highlight in a niche market.

01 Save AI for Next Year

Whether it's the 60hz screen or the USB 2.0 port, these are not the biggest disappointments for consumers, or even an issue at all given Apple's user loyalty.

The problem lies in AI.

In 2024, AI phones from brands like Xiaomi, Honor, vivo, OnePlus, Nubia, and more emerged like mushrooms after rain. As a result, this year is widely regarded as the 'first year' of AI phones in the industry. Many smartphone manufacturers see AI as an opportunity for change.

The attitudes of other leading domestic manufacturers also reflect their expectations for AI phones.

For example, Zhao Ming, CEO of Honor, believes that traditional smartphones can no longer meet users' demand for intelligent experiences, and the next generation of AI terminals is on the horizon. Zhou Wei, Vice President of vivo, and Shen Ziyu, CEO of Star Trek Meizu, also expressed similar views, both optimistic about the future development of the AI phone market. Chen Mingyong, founder of OPPO, also stated that the group would focus its R&D efforts and resources solely on AI.

With AI phones from various manufacturers making their debuts, consumers naturally have higher expectations for Apple: stronger integration of its ecosystem and a habit of producing more mature products than its peers.

Apple has indeed made some distinctive innovations. In addition to the text-to-image, image editing, text generation, text summarization, and cross-app operations unveiled at the WWDC, Apple is attempting to expand AI into more details thanks to its more powerful NPU.

For example, at the press conference, Apple demonstrated that when you see an interesting dog on the street, you can take a photo and ask Siri what breed it is. Another feature is 'AI Remix,' which can separate audio tracks in videos and allow users to adjust the volume of each track freely. These tasks used to require multiple professional devices.

However, these innovations fall short of meeting everyone's expectations for Apple. On the one hand, many of the features mentioned above are already available on competitor phones, and Apple's revolutionary innovation has not been seen in this new product, either in hardware or software.

On the other hand, as Apple's first AI phone, consumers cannot even experience AI features on the iPhone 16 series models for the time being. According to Apple's website, Apple Smart is not yet available for iPhone models purchased in mainland China, and there is no clear timeline for its release. Meanwhile, The Washington Post noted in its testing of the English version of Apple Smart in the iOS 18.1 Developer Preview Beta that the accuracy of generated information summaries needs improvement.

02 Tri-fold: A New Possibility for Mobile Office Work?

While AI dampened everyone's spirits, Huawei captivated consumers with its hardware innovation.

Huawei's tri-fold Mate XT is truly impressive. As the industry's first mass-produced tri-fold phone, the Mate XT is thinner when unfolded and weighs a manageable 306 grams. Its unique tri-fold design has sparked creativity among netizens, with some joking that it resembles ancient imperial edicts for review.

Judging from the videos shared by some digital bloggers, the Mate XT's software compatibility is also excellent, with corresponding display solutions for single, dual, and tri-screen modes. The screen creases are similar to those of mainstream foldable devices and are not noticeable during use.

Yu Chengdong mentioned at the press conference that Huawei has been working on the tri-fold solution for five years and has applied for multiple patents. For example, the multi-directional flexible material used in the screen enhances its bending resistance by 25%, while the non-Newtonian fluid material and the industry's largest UTG glass improve the screen's impact resistance by 30%.

After the phone's release, reservations for the Mate XT on Huawei's official website exceeded 4 million. On social media, scalpers rejoiced, hiking the price of the new phone tenfold. For a phone with a starting price of 19,999 yuan and a top-end model at 23,999 yuan, this is a remarkable achievement. In terms of price alone, Huawei's Mate XT rivals Apple's premium trio.

Discussing the significance of this phone solely in terms of price is somewhat narrow-minded. Yu Chengdong said at the press conference, 'Immerse yourself in report PPTs' and 'turn Xiaohongshu into a big red book.' One of the trends in smartphone evolution has been larger screens for better information reception and reading. A phone with a screen the size of a small tablet and a portable foldable keyboard can, to some extent, replace a tablet as a productivity tool. For consumers who prefer to meet their needs within a single app rather than downloading multiple ones, a phone that adequately meets office work needs undoubtedly represents another possibility for mobile office work.

In fact, over the past few years, as foldable technology has matured and yield rates have significantly improved, the costs of key components such as flexible screens and precision hinges have been effectively controlled, providing manufacturers with greater room for price reductions. Some organizations predict that the mainstream price of foldable phones is expected to drop to between 5,000 and 8,000 yuan in the future.

Meanwhile, quarterly data shows that foldable phone shipments have grown rapidly for several consecutive quarters. In Q2 2023, shipments increased by 173% year-on-year, followed by 90.4% in Q3, 149.6% in Q4, and 83% in Q1 2024, indicating continued strong growth.

Will tri-fold phones become the mainstream form factor when prices drop to acceptable levels?

03 No War in Mobile Phones

In pursuit of the next mobile terminal, major smartphone manufacturers have made numerous efforts. Manufacturers such as Xiaomi and OPPO have experimented with AR glasses, while Apple has developed Vision Pro, which it calls a spatial computing platform.

However, for now, flat-screen phones remain the optimal solution for mobile communication.

For the current mobile phone market, AI is not the key factor influencing competition.

According to survey data from BayStreet Research, some operators stated that AI features generate buzz only during the initial sales period and later become secondary selling points. There is no consensus on AI phones. Canalys' survey shows that only 7% of consumers would specifically upgrade their phones for AI features.

Foldable phones are far from replacing flat-screen phones.

On the one hand, price is a barrier to the popularization of foldable phones. According to China Business Network, 66.5% of foldable phones sold in 2023 were priced above $1,000. Despite growing demand, foldable phone shipments accounted for only 1.5% of the overall market. Tri-fold phones face even greater challenges in cost reduction.

On the other hand, user experience remains the biggest challenge for foldable phones. Users often complain about issues such as durability, screen creases, and bulkiness, especially the screen's vulnerability to scratches and the high failure rate of hinges, which are pain points for many potential users.

Furthermore, the high repair costs of foldable phones often deter users, especially in small cities or remote areas where professional repair services are scarce. For example, an OPPO Find N3 user encountered a screen leak within four months, and the replacement cost exceeded 3,000 yuan.

The problem of directly applying force to the flexible screen of dual-fold phones is unavoidable and likely persists with tri-fold phones.

In the new cycle driven by device replacement demand, the winning factor in mobile phone industry competition remains user experience and cost-effectiveness.

After Huawei's return, it quickly regained market share in China's high-end segment, with quarterly growth rates of 67% and 82% in Q1 and Q2, respectively, and market share rising from 26% to 30%. However, Huawei is not the only competitor challenging Apple. Both Xiaomi, which has identified a demand for small-screen flagship phones, and vivo, which offers well-rounded products with increasingly smooth systems and nationwide after-sales service, are making strong inroads into the high-end market. This explains why Apple did not go all-in on AI but instead unveiled its strongest-ever standard edition of the iPhone 16 series.

When users no longer have the patience of devout believers, the test for brands lies in product definition and marketing capabilities.

Reference Sources:

1. Geek Park: The release of the first iPhone in the AI era, does it mean the era of AI phones has arrived?

2. Golden Horn Finance: Huawei has invented the phone that understands Chinese people best

* The cover image and accompanying images are copyrighted by their respective owners. If the copyright owner believes that their work is not suitable for public browsing or should not be used free of charge, please contact us promptly, and we will immediately make corrections.