On July 10th, the Long March 10B rocked the space industry with its maiden flight, successfully achieving orbit insertion and executing a sea-based first-stage recovery.

From rocket capabilities to recovery techniques and the underlying engineering systems, this event marks a significant leap for China's space industry into the era of reusability.

In recent years, China's commercial rocket sector has achieved a crucial milestone: private enterprises have demonstrated their capability to build and launch rockets. However, the advent of the Long March 10B signals a potential transformation in this phase. Today's discussion delves into the challenges China's private commercial rocket companies will encounter post-Long March 10B and where their future competitive advantages may lie.

01 New Variables from the National Team

China's commercial rocket companies have been navigating an emerging market in recent years.

The burgeoning demand for low-Earth orbit satellite internet, commercial remote sensing, and space infrastructure has opened new avenues for commercial launches. The emergence of models like the Long March 10B and Long March 12B introduces new competitive forces into this market.

These rockets are also designed to meet the future demand for large-scale commercial launches.

In terms of capabilities, the first significant change brought by the national team is an enhancement in payload capacity.

The Long March 10B, in its first-stage recoverable configuration, boasts a payload capacity of approximately 16 tons to low-Earth orbit. The Long March 12B, tailored for future low-Earth orbit satellite internet networks, features a nine-engine parallel power configuration. The development of these two large liquid-fueled rockets indicates that China's commercial launch market now offers multiple payload capacity options tailored to large-scale networking needs.

It's clear that both rockets are vying for the high-capacity, reusable commercial launch model exemplified by the Falcon 9. This suggests that China's commercial launch market is entering a phase of competition centered around even greater payload capacities.

Historically, private commercial rockets have primarily focused on the small-to-medium payload market, with solid-fueled rockets being the norm, relying on agility and commercial responsiveness to carve out opportunities. However, as large liquid-fueled rockets advance, market evaluation criteria are evolving. To date, among domestic private commercial rocket companies, only the ZQ-2, TL-2, LJ-2, and ZQ-3 models have successfully completed full-scale flight verifications of liquid-fueled carrier rockets.

The second significant change arises from recovery technology.

The Long March 10B opts for a sea-based net recovery approach, capturing the first stage via a recovery platform to reduce structural weight from landing gear and enhance payload efficiency. The Long March 12B explores a vertical landing approach, aligning with current international mainstream reusable rocket methods.

The simultaneous advancement of these two approaches indicates that the national team is now focusing on developing reusable capabilities. For commercial launches, the value of recovery extends beyond completing a single mission; it transforms the long-term operational cost structure. Disposable rockets compete on single-launch capabilities, whereas reusable rockets compete on long-term operational efficiency.

Thus, the successive appearances of the Long March 10B and Long March 12B not only enhance the capabilities of the national team's commercial rockets but also raise the competitive bar for the entire market.

02 Two Challenges for Private Commercial Rockets

China's commercial space industry has achieved a breakthrough from zero to one in recent years.

Around 2015, with the gradual liberalization of commercial space policies, private enterprises began venturing into the carrier rocket sector. In subsequent years, the Hyperbola-1 achieved orbit insertion for a privately-built rocket, the Ceres-1 demonstrated stable launch capabilities, and models like the ZQ-2, LJ-1, and TL-2 continued to advance, proving that private enterprises possess the capability to enter the carrier rocket field.

This milestone is significant. Prior to this, China's space endeavors were predominantly undertaken by the national team, and commercial space first needed to prove its eligibility as an industry participant.

However, with the development of national team commercial rocket models like the Long March 12B and Long March 10B, the competitive landscape for private enterprises is changing. In the past, simply proving flight capability was sufficient. In the future, they must also demonstrate the ability to provide competitive commercial launch services.

Based on current progress, private commercial rockets are still in the capability accumulation phase.

i-Space's Hyperbola-1 has undergone multiple flight verifications, but the Hyperbola-3 has yet to achieve its maiden flight. LandSpace's ZQ-2 has achieved multiple orbit insertions, but the ZQ-3, despite successful orbit insertion during its maiden flight, failed to recover its first stage. ExPace's LJ-1 has demonstrated stable launch capabilities, and the LJ-2 has also completed its maiden flight, but its payload capacity still lags behind that of the Long March 10B and Long March 12B. Galactic Energy's Ceres-1 has established commercial launch capabilities, but the Ceres-2 failed during its maiden flight, and the Pallas-1 is still under development. Space Pioneer's TL-3 failed during its maiden flight and is currently undergoing failure analysis and subsequent verifications.

From these developments, it's clear that private commercial rockets still need to overcome two key challenges to reach the next competitive stage: greater payload capacity and more efficient reusability.

This is why the ZQ-3 and TL-3 are highly anticipated.

In terms of reusability, the ZQ-3 currently represents the most prominent example among private enterprises. Although the Long March 10B was the first to complete a large rocket recovery verification, the ZQ-3 still shoulders the important task of exploring vertical landing methods for private enterprises. It must address the question of whether private enterprises can establish their own competitive edge in the reusable rocket sector.

Another direction is represented by the TL-3's high-capacity liquid-fueled rocket approach. Compared to the ZQ-3's focus on recovery capabilities, the TL-3 aims to break through the payload capacity ceiling for private enterprises. The technical challenges faced by the TL-3 extend far beyond simply increasing payload capacity. In addition to its slender design, it integrates multiple technologies such as deep throttle capability, nine-engine parallel power, non-pyrotechnic separation, co-bottom tanks, and multiple satellite launches per mission.

Simultaneously, it offers a payload capacity of 17 tons in recoverable mode and 22 tons in expendable mode, and has also completed testing for launching 36 satellites on a single mission. Thus, the TL-3 represents an important validation of whether private enterprises can enter the competitive realm of large liquid-fueled rockets.

If the ZQ-3 represents whether private enterprises can successfully implement a reusable rocket approach, then the TL-3 must answer whether they can break through the payload capacity ceiling. Ultimately, both must address the issue of reusability: a single successful recovery is just the starting point; the number of reflights, maintenance costs, and launch frequency will determine the viability of their business models. If these two areas remain unaddressed, private commercial rockets will find themselves increasingly marginalized in the future commercial launch market.

03 The Next Step for Private Commercial Rockets

The enhanced capabilities of national team commercial rockets, from the Long March 12B to the Long March 10B, have indeed raised the bar for China's commercial launch market. However, this does not mean that private enterprises have lost their opportunities. Future launch demands driven by low-Earth orbit satellite internet, commercial remote sensing, and communication satellites will remain substantial, making it impossible for a single enterprise or rocket model to dominate the entire market.

Simultaneously, the advancements made by the national team will drive the maturation of engines, composite materials, testing systems, launch sites, and related support capabilities. These industrial foundations will not solely serve the national team; private enterprises can also benefit from them. However, market expansion does not equate to equal distribution of opportunities. In the future, customers will evaluate factors such as price, reliability, delivery timelines, and sustained service capabilities. Simply possessing a rocket capable of orbit insertion will no longer suffice to establish a long-term competitive advantage.

Ultimately, commercial rockets must transform from a single launch vehicle into a stable, operational commercial system. Recovery is just the beginning; the key factors determining the viability of a business model include the time required for reuse after recovery, maintenance costs, engine and rocket body lifespans, and the ability to establish a stable launch cadence.

The Falcon 9's advantage does not stem from a single successful recovery but from its mature reflight capabilities developed over years of operation. For China's private commercial rocket companies, the next round of competition will not hinge on a single maiden flight or recovery but on who can first establish a complete closed loop of "recovery, reuse, and stable operation."

After the Long March 10B, the national team has set new benchmarks in payload capacity and reusability. Private enterprises still have a market and opportunities, but the time they have to remain in the verification phase is dwindling.

Keep pushing forward, private commercial rockets.