China has established a 6G test network, indicating that 6G's arrival will be expedited. This potential early arrival of 6G stems from the less-than-ideal performance of 5G, which could lead to an awkward situation for 5G. Should domestic operators continue to invest in 5G? And how many years in advance will 6G enter commercial use?

In the race for 5G technology, China can be considered the winner. China holds more patents in 5G, has built the world's largest 5G network accounting for 60% of global 5G base stations, and boasts the largest number of 5G users, with 70% of global 5G users located in China.

However, as China gains a leading edge in 5G technology, shortcomings in its commercial applications have emerged, such as limited coverage of 5G base stations and high operational costs. These issues have prompted overseas operators to slow down their 5G network construction. Ericsson, one of the four major equipment vendors, even pointed out that investment in 5G networks outside China will significantly slow down in the coming years, as Ericsson believes that network investment expansion will have to wait for 6G.

For domestic operators, their approach to 5G technology has also changed. Investments in mid-band 5G networks have slowed down significantly, with the three major operators focusing on building low-band 5G networks. Even so, the total number of 5G base stations operated by these three companies is around 4 million, far less than the 6 million 4G base stations. Considering that the coverage area of mid-band 5G base stations is much smaller than that of 4G, the coverage of 5G networks is also far inferior to 4G, making 4G the primary mobile communication network in China.

Operators recently faced a new challenge. Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for the first five months of this year revealed that operators' mobile data service revenue amounted to 271.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. This is the first decline since the commercialization of 5G in 2019, which had previously driven continuous growth in operators' performance. Mobile data revenue accounts for nearly half of operators' total revenue, and this decline may reverse the overall revenue growth momentum, prompting operators to cut costs. As a result, the construction of still-imperfect 5G networks may slow down.

As 5G finds itself in such an awkward predicament, many economies worldwide are accelerating the development of 6G technology. In particular, Europe, the United States, Japan, and South Korea intend to jointly accelerate 6G development, aiming to regain the discourse power in mobile communication technology standards. This joint effort stems from their dissatisfaction with 5G development and China's advantage in 6G patent applications.

As mentioned above, China's 5G network is the most comprehensive globally, but even so, its coverage is inferior to 4G. Moreover, issues such as high investment and operational costs have led to user experiences falling short of expectations. These two 5G networks built in China can be seen as demonstration networks, further contributing to overseas hesitation in investing in 5G networks.

Under these circumstances, the West is accelerating the development of 6G technology to commercialize it early, potentially skipping from 4G directly to 6G. This not only benefits the West in gaining the discourse power in 6G standards but also saves investments in 5G networks. Furthermore, with less-than-ideal performance among Western operators, they are reluctant to invest in costly 5G networks, making the Western skip of 5G a widely anticipated move.

For China, it cannot afford to sit idly by as the West accelerates 6G development. The development of mobile communication technology impacts not only the telecommunications industry but also emerging technologies such as autonomous driving, the Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence. Additionally, there is the issue of patent royalties. During the 3G and 4G eras, Chinese manufacturing had to pay substantial patent royalties due to a lack of discourse power in patents. Therefore, China must also accelerate the development of 6G. The recent establishment of a 6G test network in China signifies the country's efforts to do just that.

It is evident that accelerating the commercialization of 6G is an inevitable trend driven by both interests and technology considerations. Consequently, the current state of 5G becomes even more awkward. Overseas regions will no longer engage in large-scale 5G construction, and domestic operators' 5G networks are not yet sufficiently developed. Should domestic operators continue to invest in 5G networks? This has put operators in an awkward predicament, leaving the future of 5G uncertain.