This year's Double 11 is the strongest in recent years. The sense of consumption returning is not limited to transactions and order volumes, but also lies in the confidence brought by strong brand sales to the market.

'After two years of a conservative consumption era, this year has finally turned positive,' is the heartfelt sentiment of many brands after Double 11.

This year's Double 11 has become a bellwether. The subdued and oppressive voice of 'consumption downgrading' over the past two years has begun to gradually fade, and even many high-end brands have sold out this year.

Consumption has returned.

1. This year's Double 11, brands sold out

'Who is buying those thousands of dollars of raincoats?'

Contrary to expectations, there is no more talk of 'consumption downgrading' during this year's Double 11. Over the past year, the consumer market has been dominated by white-label products and low prices, but Double 11 sales have directly refuted this notion.

This year's Double 11, raincoats sold out.

According to Tmall data, sales of raincoats positioned as light luxury and high-end have increased significantly, even doubling. Kolon Sports increased by 85%, and transactions of brands such as Salomon, Mammut, and Helly Hansen increased by more than 100% year-on-year. Especially high-end down jackets and professional outdoor equipment, sales far exceeded expectations.

Outdoor products such as raincoats have been popular over the past two years, and consumers are willing to pay for them. Tmall platform data shows that the number of users who spent more than 50,000 yuan annually on outdoor categories increased by 35% year-on-year.

Various indications show that this year's Double 11 momentum surpassed similar sales promotions in recent years. It's not just internet-famous products like raincoats; brands in multiple fields have felt this atmosphere.

This year's Double 11 data is the best example. The battle report shows that the total transaction volume of Double 11 on Taobao and Tmall increased significantly, and the number of purchasing users reached a record high. During the entire Double 11 cycle, 589 brands achieved transaction volumes exceeding 100 million yuan, an increase of 46.5% year-on-year, setting a new record. Among them, 45 brands such as Apple, Haier, Midea, Xiaomi, Nike, and Wuliangye achieved transaction volumes exceeding 1 billion yuan.

Simply put, there are more consumers who want to buy and dare to buy, and their focus has returned to quality and brand.

The volume of express packages collected is the most intuitive indicator of consumers' enthusiasm for online shopping. During this year's Double 11, the volume of express deliveries across the network set a new record. According to the Ministry of Transport, the number of express packages during this year's Double 11 (excluding Double 11 itself in 2024) reached 15.741 billion, exceeding last year's 12.203 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29%.

Moreover, from the four weeks of Double 11, the weekly package collection volume this year exceeded last year's peak.

While consumer market data grows, some phenomena are worth noting.

For example, the growth rate of high-end and luxury brands in multiple categories among core consumer groups is Beyond imagination .

As a reserved item during autumn and winter, down jackets have also been fruitful this year. Transactions for down jackets priced above 1,000 yuan increased by 30% year-on-year. Bosideng, as a leading brand in the down jacket field, achieved sales of 1.5 billion yuan during Double 11. Additionally, Gofans, a luxury down jacket brand with a main price range of 1,500-3,000 yuan, entered the Tmall apparel sales ranking for the first time, ranking eighth.

If down jackets and household appliances are still considered necessities, the surge in sales of high-end pet products indicates that consumers are truly willing to spend money. Data shows that the demand for high-end pet food, represented by air-dried, baked, and chilled pet food, continues to grow. Among them, transactions for chilled cat food surged by 1370% year-on-year, and transactions for air-dried and baked cat food increased by more than 100% year-on-year.

The increase in brand sales has led to a relative retreat of white-label products during sales promotions. Although consumers have been attracted by the low prices of white-label products over the past year, they still return to quality after trying them.

Consumers attach more importance to quality and shopping experience, which is also a lesson and experience brought by white-label products to consumers.

An experienced online shopper said that their shopping experience over the past year has been impressive. Pursuing low-priced white-label products eventually revealed that the goods were not durable or even just bought for 'fun.' In the end, quality products still need to be purchased, and some white-label products are even too scary to use, fearing that 'seeking bargains' will bring greater losses. Sometimes, the things bought for cheap prices make people 'cry and laugh.'

2. The white-label cycle has passed, and consumers are returning to brands

On November 15, Alibaba released its fiscal Q2 2025 earnings report.

During the analyst call that evening, Alibaba Group CEO Wu Yongming stated that during the recently concluded Double 11 2024, Taobao and Tmall's GMV grew robustly, and monthly active users hit a record high. This is not only a positive cycle formed by Alibaba's adherence to the 'user-first' principle and investment in merchant ecosystem development but also marks a new starting point for the industry's return to a value-oriented approach.

Alibaba's earnings report shows that for the six months ended September, Alibaba Group's revenue was RMB 236.503 billion (USD 33.701 billion), a year-on-year increase of 5%. Driven by double-digit growth in order volume, Taobao and Tmall's online GMV increased.

The industry's return to a value-oriented approach has become the future guidance for e-commerce platforms. As the largest e-commerce platform in China, two pieces of information revealed in Alibaba's earnings report are also worth pondering.

The first is the number of members.

'Over the past few months, amid the intensifying market competition in the e-commerce industry, Taobao and Tmall have made breakthroughs in retaining core users and attracting new users,' said Wu Yongming. 'We will continue to invest in our core business, improve the operating quality of each business, and are confident in future development.'

Alibaba's earnings report shows that the number of 88VIP members reached 46 million by the end of September, an increase of 4 million from the previous quarter. This group has become the most purchasing powerful segment within the Taobao and Tmall ecosystem. The number of future members may become the most competitive indicator for e-commerce platforms.

The scale of Taobao's 88VIP membership continues to expand, and the willingness to consume continues to increase. As of midnight on November 11, the number of 88VIP members placing orders increased by over 50% year-on-year. Over the past year, Taobao's 88VIP has continued to maintain double-digit growth, and the scale of 88VIP's annual cooperation brands has increased by over 300% year-on-year, becoming a new driver for the explosion of business for Tmall's Double 11 this year.

Imagine a group of people willing to spend money on membership; isn't this the best embodiment of the pursuit of quality and experience?

The second is the continued increase in investment in e-commerce consumers and merchants.

During this quarter, Taobao and Tmall continued to increase investment in strategic initiatives such as price-competitive products, customer service, membership system benefits, and technology. These initiatives led to higher purchase frequencies and better feedback on the overall shopping experience compared to the same period last year.

Over the past year, Alibaba has eliminated annual fees for Tmall, refunded software service fees to some small and medium-sized merchants, and opened up many tools for free. This series of fee reduction strategies has encouraged brands to invest more in marketing expenses.

The earnings report shows that Taobao and Tmall's take rate remained stable year-on-year during this quarter. The highly anticipated AI marketing tool ' Full site promotion ' (Omni-channel Promotion) has steadily increased its penetration rate among merchants, helping them improve marketing efficiency.

These initiatives have gained recognition from mainstream consumer groups, reduced the operating burden on merchants, and driven the popularity of branded products during Double 11.

In contrast, white-label products that have been over-marketed have seen a sharp decline in reputation in the second half of this year.

Quality issues with products promoted by Northeast Yujie and Xiaoyangge have led to a crisis of trust among consumers towards live streamers and the white-label products they promote.

In the past, consumers' trust in white-label products largely stemmed from live streamers' recommendations. However, with some integrity issues emerging in the live streaming industry, such as products recommended by Northeast Yujie and Xiaoyangge being criticized for false advertising or inconsistent quality, consumers' trust in white-label products has significantly decreased.

The return of consumers to high-end and quality products has actually begun to emerge in multiple fields since the second half of this year.

This year, Ba Wang Cha Ji has become the subject of research by consumer investors. Over the past year, many tea brands have chosen to expand their market share through price wars, but Ba Wang Cha Ji has successfully achieved countertrend growth by adhering to a highly branded strategy and quality.

In 2023, Ba Wang Cha Ji's star product 'Boya Juexian' sold 230 million cups, which can be compared to Luckin Coffee's Shengye Latte, which sold 300 million cups in two years.

This data may bring a more intuitive concept refresh to the consumer market - high-quality products can sell in larger quantities than low-priced products.

Behind this achievement, Ba Wang Cha Ji's core 'quality + brand' strategy has won the favor of consumers. Compared to other tea brands that have explored low-price ranges below 10 yuan in price wars, Ba Wang Cha Ji insists on pricing in the mid-to-high-end range of 15-20 yuan. Its high price but high quality may be the ultimate outcome for the brand.

Over the past two years, white-label products have indeed made a lot of noise in the market, but it's clear that there is a market cycle factor behind the market attention given to white-label products.

Over the past few years, the corporate destocking phase has provided rapid development opportunities for white-label products. The destocking strategy helped companies release a large amount of inventory in the short term, attracting a wide range of consumers with low-priced products.

However, this development approach has an obvious cyclical nature. As inventory gradually clears, the market focus is also changing.

Taking the important retail market categories of 'electronics' and 'apparel' as examples, the scale of corporate inventory and the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline simultaneously. Companies need to 'reduce prices and offer discounts to clear inventory,' but this basically ended after 2023, macroeconomically manifesting as 'quantity and price both increasing.' Companies began to actively increase inventory scales, and price centers also continued to rise.

With the end of the destocking cycle, companies' business strategies gradually shifted from 'clearing inventory' to 'improving profit margins.' In this context, the low-price advantage of white-label products began to weaken because companies no longer blindly pursued volume but began to focus on expanding profit margins.

In addition, the platform's blind encouragement of price reductions for white-label products led to a situation of low-price competition, harming both merchants and consumers.

In the past few years, fierce competition between e-commerce platforms and merchants has led to severe price competition. To compete for more market share, many merchants have continuously lowered prices, making it difficult to guarantee product quality, not only damaging merchants' profits but also causing dissatisfaction among consumers.

When quality falls below a certain threshold, the balance of trust tilts.

The beginning of this balance being broken may have been a series of Overturning (disasters) involving top live streamers. Interestingly, the successive Overturning (disasters) of live streaming anchors this year also seem to verify that the critical point has long arrived.

From consumers' preference for brands during this year's Double 11, it can be seen that consumers cannot give up brands and the quality, tone, and lifestyle behind them.

The most obvious example is the beauty industry.

Over the past two years, low prices have brought a large number of white-label beauty products to the market. These beauty products have aroused consumers' desire to purchase through low prices and massive traffic.

However, after the novelty brought by content wears off, many consumers have 'tried and given up' on these white-label products, choosing branded products again. During this year's Double 11, sales of branded beauty products began to grow again.

For example, in the beauty industry, international luxury beauty brands with higher price points showed significant growth momentum. International luxury brands such as La Mer, Helena Rubinstein, and SK-II increased by over 30% year-on-year, while CPB and MISTINE increased by nearly 60% and Shu Uemura by over 40% year-on-year.

Data shows that high-ticket items have increased significantly. High-end luxury beauty brands increased by nearly 30% compared to the same period last year's Double 11. New beauty products priced above 500 yuan increased by over 200% year-on-year, new men's care products priced above 500 yuan increased by over 300%, and new aromatherapy products priced above 500 yuan increased by over 1000%.

3. As consumption returns to the era of value

Simply competing on low prices has almost brought disaster to consumption over the past few years. Especially a series of absolute price competitiveness and only refund policies have destroyed the experience established by e-commerce in recent years.

While consumers enjoy the thrill of 'breaking prices,' they overlook the long-term impact on quality. In fact, just as the public has a lower tolerance for food safety, if we use the same standard to view e-commerce, these degraded e-commerce experiences should not occur.

For example, it is unclear whether some cheap white-label products launched through traffic-driven strategies are counterfeit or inferior brands; whether low prices necessarily mean low quality, and whether quality and price must regress together. I believe the answer will gradually become clear in the end.

As the white-label cycle wanes, e-commerce is beginning to return to the era of value, with factors such as experience and quality being picked up again.

Some interesting industry phenomena have begun to emerge.

The first is that white-label products hope to transition to branding. White-label products rely on price competition, winning market share through mass production and low profits. However, as consumers place increasing importance on quality, personalization, and brand experience, the low-price advantage of white-label products gradually disappears.

In the past, manufacturers in industrial belts faced pressure due to extremely low pricing, resulting in low ROI. A trend observed by a 4A company is that brand power can support brand premium space, while without brand power, products must continuously compete, meaning continuously bearing cost and supply chain pressures. Once there are no new products to stimulate users, sales will decline.

Additionally, the demand for low-priced products still exists among consumers, prompting platforms to actively screen and operate truly excellent manufacturing capacity.

For example, Tmall's 'Taobao Factory.'

Through the platform's resources and technical support, Taobao Factory helps small and micro-manufacturers improve product design and quality, breaking the limitations of low quality and low prices of traditional white-label products and promoting the development of these products towards branding.

By controlling quality, the platform can avoid a large number of white-label products on the market from turning into counterfeits and inferior products under price comparison pressure. It can also provide consumers with higher-quality products and more reliable after-sales services.

This will accelerate the process of branding for white-label merchants. On the other hand, low-quality white-label products will be eliminated, and the market will gradually focus on providing high-quality, high value-added products.

Finally, e-commerce platforms are returning to a value-oriented approach.

In recent years, Taobao and Tmall have actively grasped market trends and made several adjustments to improve the quality of platform products and consumers' shopping experience.

Taobao and Tmall took the lead in adjusting their strategy of using 'absolute low prices' as the main competitive advantage, gradually abandoning the model of over-reliance on low-price promotions and shifting to improving the overall quality and service of products. This change has enabled merchants to no longer rely solely on low prices but attract consumers by increasing product added value and brand power.

Taobao and Tmall have loosened the 'only refund' policy, optimized the after-sales service system, reduced improper returns, protected merchants' interests, and increased consumers' shopping confidence.

Conclusion

Over the past two years, consumers have indeed contracted their spending due to concerns about uncertainty.

However, the overall environment is also changing.

On the one hand, consumption subsidies represented by government trade-in subsidies and local consumption vouchers have driven large-scale trade-ins. On the other hand, fiscal stimulus has formed a clear expectation, and more measures may be implemented in the future.

As the international situation changes, the foreign trade situation evolves. Whether China will initiate a new round of fiscal stimulus to better stimulate domestic demand and whether the improvement in consumption expectations will be strengthened will soon have answers.

This year's Double 11 saw Taobao and Tmall's monthly active users hit a record high, truly becoming the 'Double 11 with the highest participation in history.' This is a positive signal in the e-commerce sector.