?In today's rapidly evolving technological landscape, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as a force to be reckoned with, sparking profound transformations globally. With its unique intelligent features and vast application prospects, AI presents both unprecedented opportunities and challenges for human society's development. It not only drives changes across various industries but also exerts a profound impact on society. Exploring the limitless value of AI not only aids in better understanding this technology but also provides new avenues for future innovation and development.

However, the rapid advancement of AI technology has also given rise to a series of ethical and responsibility issues. For instance, how can we ensure that AI decisions are fair and transparent, avoiding algorithmic discrimination and bias? How can we protect personal privacy and data security, preventing information leakage and abuse? These questions necessitate in-depth reflection and resolution. Therefore, establishing AI ethics guidelines and strengthening regulation and self-discipline are crucial safeguards for ensuring the healthy and sustainable development of AI.

However, restrictions on AI ethics have, in turn, hindered AI's development. Especially amid intensifying international technological competition. In response, the United States, as a leader in AI, has recently initiated a series of actions.

01

Origin of the US AI 'Manhattan Project'

Recently, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) recommended to Congress that it "establish and fund a project similar to the Manhattan Project, dedicated to achieving general artificial intelligence (AGI) capabilities more rapidly." The Manhattan Project was a massive collaboration between the U.S. government and the private sector during World War II, leading to the development and production of the first atomic bomb.

According to reports, the USCC's 793-page report also recommends that Congress allow the executive branch to contract and fund artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and data center companies, thereby integrating the strengths of the government, enterprises, and research institutions to accelerate AGI-related research and ultimately establish "U.S. leadership in the field of AGI."

Current popular AI tools, such as ChatGPT and AlphaFold, can only perform specific tasks like processing language materials and calculating protein structures, categorizing them as "narrow AI" (ANI). In contrast, "general artificial intelligence" (AGI) is seen as having the potential to revolutionize human society and drive an explosion in human productivity because it can autonomously learn and think like humans, complete various tasks across multiple domains without human intervention. For example, AGI can be used to develop complex investment strategies and research methods for treating difficult diseases, continuously iterating and upgrading itself.

In 2015, before OpenAI existed, it was known as Y Combinator's AI Research (YAR) lab. Sam Altman, then president of Y Combinator, invested $10 million of his own money and began recruiting talent to spin off OpenAI as an independent entity. Later, when pitching his idea to Elon Musk, Altman referred to the upcoming OpenAI as the "Manhattan Project for AI." In an email to Musk, he wrote, "Have you ever thought about YC [a platform for incubating startups] launching a 'Manhattan Project' for AI? My feeling is that we could start with 50 top researchers and, through some sort of non-profit model, make the technology belong to the world. But if successful, those involved will also be adequately compensated."

Shortly after Donald Trump's election, an official AI infrastructure blueprint from OpenAI was leaked. This document, titled "Blueprint for U.S. AI Infrastructure," covers AI economic zones, nuclear power projects, and government projects independently funded by private investors. The Blueprint aims to establish AI economic zones jointly created by state and federal governments, "designed to incentivize states to expedite permitting and approval of AI infrastructure." The company plans to build new solar panels and wind farms and put idle nuclear reactors into use to meet the infrastructure and energy needs for AI research and development. Additionally, OpenAI outlines a North American AI Alliance in the Blueprint, specifically designed to compete with foreign rivals.

02

Regulatory Deregulation to Greenlight AI

The level of policy support and the extent of assistance provided to the AI industry have long been a point of contention between the two major U.S. political parties during presidential campaigns. On the one hand, various enterprises and politicians have previously expressed concerns that the U.S.'s current stringent review system and tight power supply have severely hindered the progress of the AI industry. On the other hand, there is a general consensus that the Trump administration will further ease restrictions on the technology sector. For example, Trump has announced plans to rescind President Biden's executive order on artificial intelligence, describing it as "impeding AI innovation and imposing radical left-wing ideology on the development of this technology."

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman acknowledges the risks posed by AI but warns that regulators should also be cautious not to restrict the development of useful technologies.

In her latest speech, she stated, "We do not need to rush to regulate. An overly conservative regulatory approach may push activities outside the regulated banking system or completely halt the use of AI, thereby distorting the competitive landscape."

This marks a significant shift in the U.S. approach to AI development and deployment. Under the new Trump administration, AI development in the U.S. will focus on advancing AI with minimal regulation and accelerating technological progress through free market mechanisms. Trump emphasizes a new approach rooted in "freedom of speech in AI development," adopting a more laissez-faire regulatory style. On the one hand, this approach caters to the broader voice of the technology industry and may have positive impacts, such as accelerating the AI development cycle. On the other hand, reducing regulatory oversight on AI safety and ethics may raise concerns about security and privacy standards.

The shift in AI policy under the Trump administration is heavily influenced by Elon Musk. On November 12, 2024, Musk officially took office at the U.S. Government Efficiency Department. In the future, this key figure in the technology industry will also lead the reorganization of government operations, shaping how AI integrates into various government departments, becoming a central figure in the future of AI development and regulation in the U.S.

The new regulatory environment can accelerate the development cycle and increase innovation in AI technology while also speeding up industry consolidation in the AI sector. Large companies may have more freedom to expand their AI businesses through acquisitions and collaborations, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape of the industry. In particular, companies with interests aligned with Musk may benefit significantly. Taking the deregulation of AI to allow fully autonomous vehicle driving as an example, reports suggest that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) may issue rules to simplify deployment. Currently, the U.S. only allows manufacturers to deploy 2,500 autonomous vehicles annually, but new legislation could raise this cap to 100,000 vehicles. Tesla plans to start producing driverless taxis from 2026, and if new regulations enable fully autonomous vehicles, Tesla CEO Musk will directly benefit. Additionally, Musk's AI startup, xAI, is about to complete a new round of funding, with its valuation expected to double to $50 billion.

03

Other Countries Are Also Strongly Promoting AI, with Rapid Deployment of AI Applications

In November, OpenAI announced the launch of a new AI search experience for ChatGPT. Paid subscribers (and users on the SearchGPT waitlist) will gain access to real-time, internet-connected conversational capabilities, with free, enterprise, and educational users following suit in the coming weeks. Microsoft aims to build an AI agent ecosystem, with key application scenarios taking shape. On November 19, local time, at the "Microsoft Ignite 2024" global developer conference, Microsoft updated several AI products focused on AI assistants (AI Agents).

Additionally, the South Korean government has proposed developing an AI-driven military to gain a leading position on future battlefields. The South Korean Ministry of National Defense and the military also view AI technology as a crucial force multiplier, hoping to modernize the armed forces and effectively address future challenges. Furthermore, SKT, a South Korean telecom operator, has successfully implemented its self-developed telecom large model.

China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC) released a research report stating that the deployment of AI applications accelerated further in Q3 2024. In addition to previously popular applications like Perplexity, which continued to grow rapidly, applications like AppLovin and Palantir also demonstrated the productivity transformations brought about by AI. Simultaneously, a new wave of popular applications emerged, such as Hailuo, Kuaishou Keling, and Pika. Encouragingly, outstanding domestic AI applications are gradually coming to the fore. As technology continues to advance, more innovative products will emerge, especially in AI marketing, AI imaging, AI virtual companionship, and AI military applications, where competition in these niche markets will intensify. As user demand for AI tools increases, we may see more customized solutions tailored to specific industry needs, driving further development of the entire industry.

With the acceleration of AI application processes and the continuous emergence of real-world applications, coupled with the dual drive of cloud applications and terminal intelligence to promote industrial upgrading, companies in the AI sector are facing significant development opportunities. AI application scenarios are witnessing comprehensive breakthroughs and innovations, with cloud applications and terminal intelligence jointly driving industrial upgrades.

04

NVIDIA Chips in Short Supply Due to Limited Production Capacity

Currently, the U.S. leads China in computing power. Experts assess that one of the factors contributing to the dominance of U.S. companies (including OpenAI, Google, and Meta) in the global AI field is their preferential access to computing resources. In particular, these three companies are building computing infrastructures using tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of advanced NVIDIA GPUs (including the state-of-the-art GH100).

This year, NVIDIA became the world's most valuable publicly traded company, with its AI chips and a handful of anonymous customers propelling its market value skyward. Financial filings reveal that customers A, B, and C each accounted for 12% of NVIDIA's quarterly revenue in the three months ending in October. This suggests that these three customers likely received the maximum number of chips allocated to them by NVIDIA rather than receiving as many chips as they desired.

NVIDIA is simply unable to increase chip production because it has outsourced the wholesale manufacturing of its industry-leading AI microchips to TSMC, lacking its own production facilities.

Huang Renxun stated, "We are in the early stages of ramping up production, which always comes with opportunities for increased output. We are ramping up Blackwell production from zero to a very large level. By definition, the laws of physics dictate that the speed of production increases is limited."

The deployment and development of future AI applications depend on computing power and, more crucially, on the production capacity and supply of AI chips. As the U.S. goes 'all in' in the AI race, the supply of AI chips is paramount. This may also be a significant reason why the U.S. is urging TSMC to set up a factory in the U.S.