Data indicates that by the end of November 2024, China's 5G mobile phone users had reached 1.002 billion, accounting for 56% of all mobile phone users. Five years after 5G commercialization, this milestone of over 1 billion users is a remarkable achievement, clearly demonstrating 5G's role in "human connections."

However, the number of "things connections" supporting 5G applications across various industries remains at a relatively nascent stage. In November 2024, the "Upgrading Plan for the 'Sailing' Action on the Large-Scale Application of 5G," issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and 12 other departments, proposed achieving over 100 million 5G IoT terminal connections by the end of 2027. This projection suggests a measured growth rate for 5G IoT connections.

To fully realize 5G's potential in digitizing various industries, it is crucial to expand the scale of IoT terminal connections. While increasing the number of 5G IoT terminal connections will take time, efforts can be focused on key areas by enhancing coverage in native and unique 5G demand scenarios, thereby boosting the scale of 5G IoT connections.

To augment 5G IoT terminal connections, several factors need acknowledgment:

Last month, the MIIT's "Notice on the Summary and Evaluation of Key Cities in the 2024 'Sailing' Action on 5G Applications" revealed that as of March 2024, the number of 5G IoT terminal connections nationwide exceeded 40 million. 5G applications have integrated into 74 out of 97 major categories of the national economy, with significant promotions in key areas such as industry, mining, power, and healthcare. The number of 5G IoT terminal connections in key cities participating in the 5G application "Sailing" action reached 17.9634 million, accounting for over 40% of the national total.

Public data shows that by the end of November 2024, the three basic telecommunication enterprises had developed 2.642 billion cellular IoT terminal connections. Consequently, the proportion of 5G IoT connections in overall cellular IoT connections is approximately 2%. Currently, cellular IoT connections are predominantly 4G, NB-IoT, and the gradually phasing-out 2G. As we enhance 5G IoT connections, several realities must be recognized.

First, 4G will remain the backbone of cellular IoT connections for the foreseeable future.

Over the past few years, the accelerated phase-out of 2G and 3G has paved the way for the rapid growth of LTE Cat 1 and NB-IoT. China boasts the world's largest and highest-quality 4G network, providing a robust infrastructure for cellular IoT applications. While the intergenerational update of communication infrastructure presents opportunities for rapid growth in the connection numbers of new-generation communication networks, the 4G network will continue to play a pivotal role for the foreseeable future.

Recently, Matt Hatton, founder of the overseas market research institution Transforma Insights, wrote an article discussing the phase-out of 4G networks. He believes that one of the critical factors in the development of 5G IoT is whether 4G LTE can provide continuous service. While 5G IoT addresses future needs, 4G IoT can support most existing demands.

Looking back at the development of 2G/3G, 2G has been in service for approximately 30-35 years or even longer, and 3G for about 20-25 years. Referring to past history, as a successful generation of mobile communication technology, 4G's lifespan is more akin to that of 2G, capable of serving for over 30 years. Therefore, Matt Hatton predicts that 4G will be phased out around 2040. Of course, different countries and regions may have varying timelines based on actual conditions, but there are no signs of phase-out before 2030.

Currently, 5G RedCap is highly anticipated by the industry, targeting LTE Cat 4 and Cat 1, which are the largest areas of 4G IoT. The author has previously written that the inflection point for RedCap to enter its fast-track development can be referenced from the journey of Cat 1, specifically the point when the 4G network phase-out policy becomes clear.

Thus, the industry must recognize that 4G will remain the backbone of cellular IoT for the foreseeable future. In the author's view, the process of promoting the expansion of 5G IoT connections is also a process of coordinated 5G and 4G application. Facing user demands, mature, low-cost, and sustainable connection solutions should be provided. Considering the lifecycle of scenarios, complementary solutions combining 5G and 4G should be implemented.

Second, the scope of 5G IoT must be clarified.

What exactly constitutes 5G IoT? Currently, multiple IoT projects on the market claim 5G connectivity. In the author's view, a genuine 5G IoT connection must meet two criteria: first, the terminal design must comply with 5G standards, namely 3GPP R15 and its subsequent versions; second, the terminal must be connected to the 5G NR network and access the 5G core network.

As we know, 3GPP R15 is the first standard for 5G, but this version is more focused on standardizing eMBB (Enhanced Mobile Broadband) scenarios. R16 further refines the standard specifications for uRLLC and mMTC scenarios, forming the first complete 5G standard, which includes designs for vertical IoT scenarios such as the industrial internet and the Internet of Vehicles. In the R17 version, IoT scenarios are further enhanced, with the most notable introduction being RedCap for mid-rate IoT scenarios and IoT NTN for satellite IoT. In subsequent standard versions, passive IoT emerges as a new scenario, forming an important research topic for 5G standards.

Currently, some high-rate terminals such as live streaming equipment and high-definition videos form 5G IoT connections based on 5G eMBB features. Scenarios with high real-time requirements in industries like manufacturing and power also adopt uRLLC features and are included in the 5G IoT sequence, alongside RedCap and other low-power wide-area IoT scenarios.

Some in the industry may wonder, since NB-IoT was included in the 5G standard family in July 2020, can existing NB-IoT connections in the market be categorized as 5G connections? In fact, although there are currently hundreds of millions of NB-IoT connections in the market, the vast majority of terminals are based on 3GPP R13 and R14 version standards, and the accessed networks are software upgrades of LTE networks or designed by adding some equipment. Neither the terminal design nor the network connection meets the requirements of 5G IoT, so they cannot be included in 5G IoT.

In 3GPP R16, further evolution and enhancement are carried out for NB-IoT to improve peak rates and mobility, while also enabling NB-IoT devices to access the 5G core network. However, the proportion of NB-IoT terminals using the R16 standard is currently very small, so the scale of 5G NB-IoT connections remains low. The "Notice on Promoting the Development of 'Intelligent Connection of All Things' in Mobile IoT" issued in September 2024 proposed enhancing the level of deep coverage of 5G NB-IoT in key areas such as municipal administration, home furnishing, education, and agriculture as needed, achieving deep coverage in key scenarios.

Promoting the development of 'things connections' to realize the vision of 5G transforming society

5G has achieved over 1 billion 'human connections,' but due to factors such as the maturity of technical standards, industry user acceptance, application costs, and investment pressure on enterprises brought about by economic slowdown, the scale of 5G IoT connections is limited, and the deep penetration of industry applications needs to be strengthened. Therefore, the expected target for 5G 'things connections' in 2027 is set at 100 million. In the future, the promotion of 5G needs to prioritize IoT connections. By expanding the scale of IoT connections, 5G can achieve deeper penetration in industry applications and truly enable 5G for various industries. In the author's view, efforts can be made from the following aspects:

First, address the substitutability barriers of 4G, seek native 5G and rigid demand scenarios, and achieve differentiation from 4G IoT

As a lightweight 5G technology, RedCap is specifically designed for mid-rate IoT scenarios. In 3GPP standard research, scenarios such as smart city video surveillance, industrial sensors, and wearable devices are proposed to support the in-depth application of 5G in related industries. However, RedCap targets Cat 4 and Cat 1 based on the 4G LTE network. As mentioned earlier, for some time, 4G will remain the backbone of IoT, and direct substitution will face issues such as high costs and insufficient infrastructure. In the initial stage, specific scenarios need to be sought to break the deadlock. In the author's view, strategies in this regard mainly include:

First, scenarios with rigid demand for native 5G capabilities. RedCap integrates many new 5G capabilities, such as network slicing, positioning, low latency, large capacity, and even uRLLC. In reality, there are also some scenarios with significant demand for these capabilities. In such cases, RedCap has incomparable advantages, and these native 5G capability advantages can be converted into commercial advantages. Previously, relevant documents on RedCap proposed to "accelerate the integration of RedCap with 5G enhancement functions such as network slicing, high-precision positioning, and 5G LAN (Local Area Network) to meet the application needs of different industry scenarios," which can be seen as a requirement to promote scenarios with native 5G capabilities.

Second, rigid demand scenarios formed in 5G private network environments. In private network environments, core equipment and assets must be connected through 5G networks because customers require a secure and isolated private network environment to ensure that data does not leave designated places such as factories and parks. In this case, 4G devices cannot access the private network. Medium-to-high-speed devices can be accessed through RedCap. Relevant documents on RedCap also propose to "promote the application of 5G RedCap technology in industry virtual private networks, improve 5G IoT capabilities, and better adapt to industry characteristics and meet application needs," which is also an exploration of private network environment scenarios. The recently held National Conference on Industry and Information Technology proposed to "promote the construction of industrial 5G standalone private networks," which, together with the vigorously promoted virtual private networks, creates large-scale demand for 5G IoT connections.

Second, accelerate the implementation of 5G-specific IoT technologies and expand IoT scenario coverage

First, accelerate the formulation and freezing of passive IoT standards. As a technology supporting tens of billions of connections, passive IoT offers ample imagination to the industry. If passive IoT based on 5G cellular networks can be implemented, most assets in various industries can deploy extremely low-cost, maintenance-free communication modules, forming the largest IoT connection group under the 5G network and accelerating 5G applications in various industries. In terms of standard evolution, 3GPP R18 has initiated pre-research projects on the requirements of passive IoT scenarios, clarifying key objectives for network design; R19 will support passive IoT terminals, focusing on research on device power supply methods, node capabilities, and compatibility with other devices within the 5G network. The industry should further accelerate the freezing of standards in this field, promote the implementation of passive IoT, fill the gaps in existing IoT scenarios, and achieve growth in 5G IoT connections.

Second, promote the commercialization and ecological construction of satellite IoT. 3GPP initiated research on non-terrestrial networks (NTN) in the 5G standard R17 phase, covering standard formulation for radio access networks, bearer networks, core networks, terminals, etc. IoT-NTN is an important direction, and R17 has formed the first version of the satellite IoT standard. Recently, key players in global satellite communications have focused on the 3GPP version of satellite IoT technology to promote the implementation of IoT-NTN. In the process of promoting 5G commercialization in China, great importance should be attached to the commercialization of satellite IoT. Although the scale of satellite IoT connections is not large, satellite IoT provides users with high-value applications. When industry users need ubiquitous and anytime connections, satellite IoT can meet user needs and is also an important area for 5G to enable digital applications for industry users.

In summary, to fulfill the promises made in the early stage of 5G commercialization, it is necessary to promote deeper integration of 5G into various industries of the national economy in the future. In this process, it is first necessary to achieve large-scale 5G IoT connections in various industries and promote the development of 5G 'things connections' to support the realization of the vision of '5G transforming society.'