A historic shift is brewing in the US auto market.

On June 24th, industry research firm Cox Automotive released its latest forecast, indicating that Toyota is rapidly closing in on General Motors' (GM) long-held crown as the top-selling automaker in the US.

According to Cox Automotive's projections, Toyota's US sales are expected to reach 1.25 million units in the first half of this year, marking a slight year-on-year increase of nearly 1%. In contrast, GM, which has long dominated the rankings, is projected to see a 7.2% decline in sales during the same period, dropping to 1.33 million units. The gap between the two giants has narrowed to 83,255 units, the smallest since 2021.

Charlie Chesbrough, a senior economist at the firm, stated during a media event: 'Based on current sales growth rates, GM will face severe challenges by the end of this year, and Toyota could surpass GM to claim the top spot in the US market.'

However, he emphasized that he has not yet made a definitive prediction that Toyota will overtake GM, but the current market trends 'do not bode well for GM.' The reason is that 'consumers are flocking to hybrid models, an area where GM lacks competitiveness.'

In the first five months of this year, amid a cooling overall US auto market, Toyota's electric vehicle sales (primarily hybrids) surged by 5.6% against the trend. Meanwhile, Cox Automotive forecasts a 23.3% plunge in pure electric vehicle sales in the US during the first half of the year, while hybrid sales are expected to grow by around 10%. The contrasting trends could not be clearer.

Currently, Toyota offers hybrid versions of over 20 models in the US market. Meanwhile, Toyota's Kentucky plant recently began production of the new RAV4, and to alleviate supply constraints for this popular compact SUV, the plant plans to boost local production of the model to 100,000 units this year.

In contrast, GM offers only one hybrid model, the Corvette, across its entire lineup, with its other brands primarily focusing on pure electric vehicles.

GM is unlikely to 'take this lying down.' Chesbrough believes that GM will likely use purchase incentives to defend its position. However, a GM spokesperson stated that the company will not rely on increased promotions to maintain its sales advantage.

Clearly, this battle has only just begun.

Additionally, similar to GM, Ford, another mainstream US automaker, also faces the risk of slipping in the sales rankings and could be overtaken by Hyundai of Korea, falling to fourth place.