With the gradual release of sales data for June, the results of various automakers in the first half of 2024 will be unveiled. Among independent automakers, there are not many enterprises with a completion rate of over 40%. BYD and Geely have performed relatively well in both sales data and plan completion progress. Geely Automobile has also raised its annual sales target by about 5%, achieving 50.3% before the adjustment and 47.8% after, making it the automaker with the highest completion rate.

However, Ideal Auto and Zeekr Auto have only completed more than 30% of their annual sales targets, while XPeng Auto has achieved less than 20%. Overall, the completion progress of automakers' sales targets is not satisfactory, foreshadowing a continuation of the price war among automakers in the future.

KPI Completion Rate Close to Half: BYD, Geely

BYD sold 341,700 new energy vehicles in June, representing a year-on-year increase of 35% and a month-on-month increase of 3%. From January to June, BYD sold 1,613,000 new energy vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.46%. BYD's sales target for 2024 is over 3.62 million units, based on which the company achieved 44.6% in the first half of the year.

The impressive performance of plug-in hybrid models in the first half of the year has supported BYD's continuous growth. In the first half of 2024, BYD's sales of plug-in hybrid passenger cars increased by 39.54% year-on-year, exceeding the 17.73% year-on-year growth rate of pure electric passenger cars in the same period. Compared to the first half of last year, the proportion of plug-in hybrid models in BYD's new energy passenger cars sold this year has increased. In the first half of this year, BYD sold about 881,000 plug-in hybrid passenger cars, accounting for 54.82% of the company's overall sales of new energy passenger cars in the first half of the year, compared to 50.58% in the first half of last year. In June, BYD sold 195,000 plug-in hybrid passenger cars, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.93% and accounting for 57.33% of the company's sales of new energy passenger cars that month, with the proportion expected to further increase.

Geely's annual sales target for 2024 is relatively conservative, with only 1.9 million units. Geely Automobile sold a total of 166,085 units in June, representing a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 3.38%. Cumulative sales in the first half of the year reached 955,730 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 41%. Due to strong sales performance, Geely Automobile announced that the group's management team decided to raise the annual sales target by about 5%, from 1.9 million units to 2 million units. After the adjustment, Geely Automobile achieved 47.8% of its sales target in the first half of the year, compared to 50.3% before the adjustment.

Breaking down the sales target of 2 million units, Geely brand aims for 1.15 million units in the domestic market, while Lynk & Co. brand targets 270,000 units. The two brands combined target 350,000 units in overseas markets. Zeekr brand plans to sell 200,000 units domestically and 30,000 units in overseas markets this year. Among the upcoming models in the second half of the year, Geely's new energy models cover multiple brands. The pure electric SUV Geely Galaxy E5 is equipped with Geely's GEA global intelligent new energy architecture. Lynk & Co.'s first pure electric model, Z10, made its debut in June, and the MPV Zeekr MIX, known as the "Baby Bus," will be officially launched in the second half of the year.

KPI Completion Rate of 30-40%: Ideal, Zeekr, etc.

Most automakers achieved 30 to 40% of their annual sales targets in the first half of the year. Ideal Auto initially set a delivery target of 800,000 units for the full year but later adjusted it to 560,000-600,000 units based on market conditions. In the first half of this year, Ideal Auto delivered a cumulative total of 189,000 units. Based on a target of 560,000 units, Ideal Auto achieved a completion rate of about 34% in the first half of the year. It is reported that due to Ideal Auto's confirmation that it will not release three planned pure electric SUVs this year, the company has reduced its annual delivery target for the second time to 480,000 units, a 40% reduction from the initial target of 800,000 units set at the beginning of the year. To achieve the 480,000-unit target, Ideal Auto needs to deliver an average of about 48,500 units per month in the second half of the year, meaning that its monthly performance in the second half cannot afford any setbacks.

In the first half of the year, Hongmeng Zhixing delivered a cumulative total of 194,200 units, surpassing Ideal Auto to become the number one new force. It is reported that Hongmeng Zhixing's delivery target for the full year is 500,000 units. Based on this, the company achieved a completion rate of 38.84% in the first half of the year and needs to deliver an average of about 51,000 units per month in the second half to achieve its annual KPI. Zero Run Auto delivered a total of 20,116 units in June, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.3% and a month-on-month increase of 10.7%. Cumulative deliveries in the first half of the year reached 86,700 units, representing a completion rate of 34.7% based on an annual sales target of 250,000 units.

Zeekr Auto has been showing good momentum recently. At the beginning of 2024, the brand set an annual sales target of 230,000 units. By the middle of June, cumulative sales had reached 80,300 units, representing a target achievement rate of 35%. NIO and Zeekr share the same annual sales target of 230,000 units. In the first half of this year, NIO sold a cumulative total of 78,000 units, representing a target achievement rate of 34.7%. Recently, NIO's sales have shown signs of recovery. If the upcoming L60 model becomes popular after its launch, the brand still has a good chance of achieving its target.

The KPI completion rates of other automakers are basically below 30%, with Nezha Auto, Xiaomi Auto, Zhimo Auto, and GAC AION having completion rates below 20%. The fiercely competitive automotive market environment has presented significant challenges to these automakers. Among them, Xiaomi Auto delivered a cumulative total of 22,500 units in the first half of the year. Based on a minimum target of 100,000 units, its target achievement rate is 23%. In fact, Xiaomi Auto does not lack orders. What it needs to do next is to increase production capacity. If it can keep up with the pace, there is still hope of achieving its annual target.

The Chinese electric vehicle market is currently witnessing a fierce price war, which is squeezing automakers' market space. Some smaller manufacturers are facing survival crises, and new-force automakers are in a life-or-death situation.

Public Opinion on Car Evaluation

Building cars is a difficult task, and the final sales volume is the result. There are many factors that contribute to this result. Any problem in any link may lead to changes in the result. It is necessary to set reasonable KPIs. In the first half of the year, the target completion progress of many independent brands was significantly behind, with only a handful of automakers achieving a completion rate of over 40%. The completion rates of most automakers were concentrated around 30%.

Although we do not judge heroes by sales, impressive sales are the foundation for everything, including profitability, listing, and competition. Price wars are battles of supply chain capabilities and cost advantages. Brands with small sales volumes are destined to withdraw from the market. Without sales scale, whether to participate in price wars or not is a matter of survival. If automakers cannot withstand the pressure of price reductions, the second half of the year will be very difficult.