Electric vehicle sales continue to maintain high growth, but to completely cross the 50% "watershed," harder bones need to be gnawed: it's becoming increasingly difficult to convince those still holding onto fuel vehicles to switch to electric ones.

The crux of the matter lies not in the cars but in electricity.

【1】

Since the beginning of this year, feeling that my current fuel vehicle is lacking in comfort and intelligence, I have made several resolutions to buy a new car, thoroughly researching all expected models, only to find:

My resolve has vanished.

The incremental improvements in fuel vehicles' comfort and intelligence make them seem unworthy of an upgrade; electric vehicles are incredibly appealing in these areas, including price, but the thought of charging still gives me a headache.

It's not that charging is bad, but my requirements are higher.

If "charging" electric vehicles could be as convenient as "fueling" up fuel vehicles, I would bid farewell to my fuel car without hesitation.

In discussions with friends who still drive fuel vehicles, I found that many share this sentiment.

Could we, the "fuel vehicle diehards," be thoroughly convinced?

【2】

Before Edison invented the electric light bulb, he pondered how to bring electric lighting to every household, eventually conceiving the infrastructure system that ushered humanity into the electrical age: the electric power transmission and distribution system, which encompassed all the necessary elements for the practical, safe, and economical use of electric lights. Some argue that Edison's greatness lies not in inventing the light bulb but in devising this system. Without it, the light bulb would have been in vain.

If there is an Edison in the electric vehicle sector, Li Bin of NIO may be the closest.

Even before NIO produced its first car, Li Bin had systematically pondered how to solve the "charging" issue, envisioning a solution that was "chargeable, swappable, and upgradable," and in 2017, he established NIO Power to focus on this, much like Edison established General Electric to specialize in the electric power system.

Chargeability is the basic premise and industry consensus, while swappability represents Li Bin's deeper innovation built upon this foundation.

I remember in my childhood in the countryside, drivers would store fuel at home to refuel their cars, as gas stations were only in towns. Looking ahead, each person owning a charging pile has a similar rationale. Moreover, doing so also faces uncertainties such as property and grid support and sufficient safety guarantees.

Mobile phones, which also suffer from range anxiety, once had replaceable batteries. Later, as batteries became integrated with the device, it was thought that charging solved everything, but those deeply observing user experience saw an opportunity, and mobile phones still rely on battery swaps, hence the emergence of power banks. Power banks have "charging" in their name, but they don't give you a cord to stand and charge; they give you a battery to go.

Therefore, battery swapping is a rigid demand. A power bank is the battery swap for mobile phones.

Battery swap stations are the gas stations for electric vehicles.

What about upgradability? Let's first consider a fact. When batteries replace fuel as the power source for vehicles, a significant change occurs: fuel tanks and vehicle bodies have the same lifespan, but batteries have a cycle life, making them and the vehicle body different in lifespan. Furthermore, fuel tanks in fuel vehicles do not undergo technological iteration, whereas batteries are constantly evolving, raising another issue: the car may still be in good condition, but the battery is already outdated.

How can batteries not only have the same lifespan as the car but also upgrade along with technological advancements?

This is the underlying innovation of Li Bin's system: separating the vehicle from the battery, making the car the car and the battery the battery, and building a battery swap system that allows users to only buy the vehicle body and rent or swap batteries from the swappable system, always using the best batteries. In this way, not only can batteries have the same lifespan as the car, but users seeking better experiences can always enjoy advancements in battery technology.

Seven years have passed, and "chargeability" has become a basic function. NIO is now the automaker with the most self-built charging piles and the widest geographical coverage in the industry. As for "swappability," although NIO currently leads the way, many things have a flywheel effect: to get a stationary flywheel rotating, one must initially apply considerable force and it will rotate slowly, or one might get half the result with twice the effort. However, the more you keep turning, the more effortless and efficient it becomes.

Battery swapping is entering a flywheel moment where efforts are increasingly efficient.

【3】

As the penetration rate of electric vehicles increases, governments, the industry, and consumers have begun to realize the importance of battery swapping.

From the user's perspective, in addition to the aforementioned superior experience, battery swapping is also more cost-effective. With "vehicle-battery separation," users can save up to seven or even twelve thousand yuan by not buying the battery, and the monthly battery rental fee, similar to fuel costs, does not increase overall expenses. The marginal benefits sound attractive, as users need not worry about battery health or degradation, ensuring they always use good batteries.

From the automaker's perspective, battery swapping addresses users' ultimate pain point of range anxiety, which naturally translates into a compelling selling point. It also allows automakers to transcend battery technology and cost constraints, enabling them to focus more on building better cars for users.

From a societal perspective, battery swapping can enhance energy and resource efficiency through centralized management, such as off-peak charging, monitoring and maintenance of batteries throughout their lifecycle, including unified recycling and utilization.

During summer, some cities experience "power shortages," potentially affecting residential and industrial electricity usage. Amid grid overload, some cities have restricted power supply to charging stations to "allocate power to the people." Battery swap stations serve as significant energy storage facilities, capable of charging during off-peak hours and discharging in emergencies, not only alleviating vehicle electricity issues but also offering immense potential value for the entire energy system in the long run.

Since May 2020, when battery swapping was included in the government work report, the government's support for it has grown, issuing basic universal standards, clarifying the goal of improving battery swap infrastructure, and supporting "vehicle-battery separation" in consumer purchases, paving the way for battery swapping.

More capital and enterprises are participating in battery swapping, including Hillhouse Capital, Sequoia Capital, HSBC, ByteDance, CATL, China Southern Power Grid, State Grid, Sinopec, and PetroChina.

However, these are merely indications of battery swapping's gradual maturity; the real catalyst is the accelerating rotation of the user-end flywheel.

【4】

In my view, the most intuitive advantage of battery swapping is that it thoroughly addresses users' range anxiety. However, in the early stages of the flywheel's rotation, its biggest challenge also lies in the user experience.

The core issue is that limited network scale and insufficient service accessibility hinder the full realization of battery swapping's advantages. If there were only a few stations in Beijing, who would drive for 30 minutes or more to enjoy a three-minute super experience?

For battery swapping to truly take off, collective action by automakers and battery enterprises is necessary: vehicles produced by automakers must be compatible with battery swapping, and battery products must move towards standard sizes and specifications. Just as all fuel vehicles can refuel, and fuel has standards.

However, all this is built upon accessible service networks.

Without accessibility, it cannot attract more users; without more users, stakeholders will not actively invest; without investment, accessibility remains unchanged... unless someone keeps investing regardless of short-term returns until the critical point of accessible service is reached, the flywheel will not rotate.

Li Bin is that "someone," and he has attracted more people through continuously increasing accessibility. In addition to the seven automakers currently in the battery swap alliance, NIO is also collaborating with Zhong'an Energy and China Southern Power Grid Energy Storage to build swap stations. A few days ago, Li Bin announced that this year, battery swapping will be available in every county in certain regions.

Initially, I was surprised, but upon research, I found that NIO already has over 2,400 swap stations nationwide, covering users within a 3-kilometer radius in Shanghai and some core cities in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai. There are already over 800 highway swap stations. China's current highway mileage is approximately 180,000 kilometers, meaning that on average, every 200 kilometers of highway has a swap station. Users can arrive at the station without exiting the vehicle, and the 3-minute automatic battery swap offers a much more comfortable experience than charging, which often requires queuing and is affected by weather conditions, making it as convenient and efficient as fueling.

Making electric vehicle "charging" as convenient as fuel vehicle "fueling" is rapidly becoming a reality, and the entire battery swap model flywheel is also spinning faster:

Better experiences will lead more users to prefer battery-swappable vehicles; automakers seeing this opportunity will produce more swappable vehicles, attracting more users and investments, resulting in a more extensive battery swap station network and better experiences.

Eventually, electric vehicles will gradually fall into two categories: those that can be swapped and those that cannot, with swappable vehicles increasingly becoming the trend.

Actually, there's no need to complicate things. Just ask one question: if there's a mode for addressing electric range anxiety that's the most time-saving, worry-free, and cost-effective, wouldn't it be welcomed?

The answer is undoubtedly yes.

In the long run, especially considering that battery swapping will offer better experiences as its scale increases, while charging may pose more challenges as its scale grows, the greater need may still be for swappability.

Once this mindset is established, the distance for electric vehicles to break through the last line of defense of those like me, diehard fuel vehicle owners, will not be far.