10/12 2024 560
Let’s get the party started.
Author | Xue Xingxing | Editor | Wang Bin | Cover | Tesla
There was no rumored next-generation Model 2, no disclosure of technical details, no plans for the rollout of Robotaxi operations, and not even an introduction to the design of the Cybercab, which resembles the Cybertruck. Musk wrapped up Tesla's most significant conference in a decade in just 20 minutes.
Within those 20 minutes, Musk showcased the dreamlike self-driving Cybercab, the Robovan, an autonomous bus that can carry up to 20 people, and the Tesla Bot, a service robot straight out of a science fiction movie.
At Warner Bros. Studios, where many science fiction films have been shot, these products that seem to exist only in the future were dazzling, briefly distracting people from the reality of Tesla's weak sales this year.
After the conference, numerous on-site experience videos circulated on overseas social media, filled with gasps of amazement. People sat in the Cybercabs, which lacked steering wheels and brake pedals, and smoothly navigated the film set. The TeslaBot, wearing a bartender's outfit, smoothly conversed with people, poured drinks, and even posed with a peace sign for selfies, its dark glass visor reflecting the excited, distorted faces of the onlookers.
However, besides Musk's vague statement that the price would be less than $30,000 and that mass production of the Cybercab would begin in 2026, the outside world learned virtually nothing about the specific details of these products. What are their technical specifications? Can inductive charging be achieved? What about the regulatory issues surrounding autonomous driving? There were no answers. Only the grand vision of a future forest city painted by Musk's words.
Given Musk's track record of missed deadlines, some analysts remain skeptical about the 2026 timeline—in fact, he quickly added, "Before 2027, let's put it that way.""Let's get the party started," Musk said at the end of his speech. In the glass room, which had been shrouded in black barriers, five Tesla Bot humanoid robots began dancing to the music—it was unclear whether these were the Optimus Gen 2 unveiled last year or a newer generation.
In short, to the tune of "What Is Love" by German singer Haddaway, released in 1993, the party began.
01 | A Troubled Conference
Just as Musk has made numerous bold claims for Tesla in the past, this conference, which he considered historic, was also beset with challenges. It was originally announced for August this year but was abruptly postponed to October without warning.
During the months of delay, various media outlets reported setbacks in Tesla's research and development progress and difficulties in mass-producing Robotaxis. Reuters even claimed that Tesla had canceled plans to develop an affordable model, which Musk denounced as a lie."Before the originally scheduled conference began today (10:00 AM Beijing Time, October 11), media reporters, automotive industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts around the world waited anxiously in front of their screens for an hour before the event finally kicked off. Musk explained on the social platform X that someone in the audience had suddenly fallen ill, causing a delay."
Musk's Explanation on X
The conference was held at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, California, where numerous iconic science fiction films such as "Blade Runner" were filmed. It was the perfect venue for a conference titled "We, Robot," which many reports have noted as a homage to Isaac Asimov's classic science fiction anthology "I, Robot," in which Asimov introduced the famous "Three Laws of Robotics.""Tesla transformed the venue into a large party with various themes. To prevent attendees from getting lost, they meticulously crafted a map with a black background, cyberpunk-style font, and the Tesla Bot bar, adorned with a cowboy hat, prominently marked."They also organized a grand drone show on-site, though it's unclear if the supplier was from China. The drone formation spelled out Tesla's logo, the Tesla Bot robot, and the words "We Robot," eliciting cheers from the crowd.
The Drone Show On-Site
'Tonight, we will experience a future that is closer than you think.' An hour after the delayed start, Tesla's Chief Designer Franz finally took the stage, and the conference began. 'Who better than Elon to show us such a future?'"Musk's entrance was also futuristic, accompanied by a person dressed as an astronaut and arriving in a Tesla Cybercab. Confident and poised, he greeted the crowd with a wave before his speech.
Before the conference, Musk uploaded a gameplay video on platform X
02 | The True Self-Driving Car
Tesla began researching Robotaxis in 2022, primarily driven by Musk. Like his visionary ideas for SpaceX and Starlink, Musk firmly believed from the start that a true Robotaxi should not have a steering wheel or pedals."In Isaacson's 2023 biography of Musk, he detailed how Musk first convened Tesla's management team to discuss Robotaxis. Musk never doubted autonomous driving, and he and his team initially discussed specific, nuanced issues, such as what to do if a passenger forgets to close the door or how a Robotaxi can enter a gated community or garage."Initially, Tesla's research team attempted to build a vehicle that was more in line with current realities, similar to the autonomous vehicles operated by Luobokuai, with traditional exteriors, complex instruments, steering wheels, and so-called safety drivers. Luobokuai even established a remote control team to supervise vehicles operating on the road from simulation cockpits."Musk disagreed with these approaches. He believed that if they didn't push themselves, the future form of autonomous vehicles would not materialize quickly. Therefore, he issued an ultimatum to the team in late summer 2022: they must build a Robotaxi without a steering wheel."The Cybercab showcased at today's conference almost perfectly validated Musk's earlier vision. It lacks a steering wheel, pedals, rearview mirrors, and has only a rectangular screen in the driver's area.
Tesla Cybercab
The sleek vehicle has almost no external sensors visible, and it even lacks a charging port, relying on inductive wireless charging. They have also addressed the issue of forgetting to close the doors; the Cybercab features gull-wing doors that open and close automatically without manual operation."In his speech, Musk lamented the current traffic congestion and inefficient transportation. He argued that people spend too much money on cars—buying them, insuring them, and paying for parking—yet they use them for only a fraction of the time, with most hours spent in parking lots. He believes that fully autonomous driving could increase vehicle utilization by 5 to 10 times, turning large areas of concrete-covered ground in cities into parks.
PPT presented by Musk at the conference
Musk believes that as the Cybercab enters operation, its travel cost could drop to as low as $0.20 per mile, and its future price could be less than $30,000. He calls it personalized transportation, where people can hail a ride on their phones, and the vehicle automatically takes passengers to their destination. People can work, make video calls, watch sports games, and more while in the car."Musk claims this will create a new business model where one person can manage a fleet of vehicles, akin to a shepherd herding a flock of sheep. "It will be a brilliant future," he said."Fifty Cybercabs were available for attendees to experience after the conference. Videos circulating on social media show that when people sit in the Cybercab, a map and surrounding information appear on the screen. However, the vehicle appears to still be in its early testing phase, as no menus, vehicle range, or other information are displayed on the screen."Musk also showcased the autonomous bus Robovan on-site. Besides its rectangular shape, the vehicle lacks almost all features of current vehicles. You can't see the wheels, the driver's area, or even the seats, which face each other horizontally.
Tesla Robovan
03 | Excited Attendees and Disappointed Analysts
However, besides these futuristic grand visions, Musk barely touched on any technical details—in past years, Tesla's annual conferences have disclosed their latest technological roadmap, such as end-to-end, pure vision-based autonomous driving, which has been widely adopted by domestic automakers."This time, Musk did not present any technical information on his PPT. Instead, it featured current traffic congestion, a forest city where parking lots become gardens, the future experience of hailing autonomous vehicles through phones, and the beautiful vision of service robots integrating into family life. Only these. Some reports claimed he merely repeated what he had said before, expressing disappointment. Tesla's share price fell accordingly, dropping over 7% before the market opened."Bloomberg highlighted Musk's past exaggerated promises in their report. For example, in 2019, he stated that Tesla would have 1 million Robotaxis on the road the following year, but in the subsequent years, Tesla did not deploy a single Robotaxi. The headline of Bloomberg's report read: "Elon Musk's Predictions About Tesla's Robotaxi Were All Wrong.""Musk has strong confidence in FSD. Since Tesla began rolling out the true end-to-end version of FSD V12 in the US, it has received positive reviews, including praise from NVIDIA CEO Jen-Hsun Huang and XPeng CEO He Xiaopeng for its leapfrog progress."Even though the Cybercab is still some time away, Musk emphasized that current Tesla models would achieve fully autonomous driving without supervision. He stated in his speech that fully unsupervised FSD would be first rolled out in Texas and California next year, and existing Model 3/Y vehicles could be upgraded. "Tesla's autonomous driving solution is based on AI and pure vision, requiring no expensive equipment. Existing Model 3/Y/S vehicles can achieve unsupervised FSD.""This is not the first time he has made such a statement. Many analysts, interviewed by the media, believe Musk is avoiding the issue. Bloomberg quoted CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson, who expressed disappointment in the lack of detail in Tesla's recent product roadmap and believed the conference had little impact on changing Tesla's medium-term profit outlook."Especially since there was no information about affordable models. Tesla's sales have been under pressure this year, delivering roughly 1.3 million vehicles in the first three quarters, 510,000 short of last year's 1.81 million. Tesla has never delivered that many vehicles in a single quarter before. The updated affordable model was seen as the hope for saving Tesla's sales. In April this year, Tesla embarked on a global layoff, and its share price has fallen by over 40% from its 2021 high."Musk remains true to himself—as he has always shown, he dislikes these analysts and financial media that he sees as sensationalizing rumors. He said on X, "The future will look like the future." After the conference, he specifically changed his X avatar to the "We, Robot" logo."People who attended the conference on-site may have shared Musk's excitement. Videos circulating on social media show people queuing up to ride in the true self-driving Cybercab, excitedly posing for photos with the Tesla Bot bartender, and asking it, "How are you?
"The future." Someone said on X. In the video, several Tesla Bot robots are weaving through the crowd. Their movements are slightly slow, but they are indeed like real humans, with nimble fingers and steady steps.
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