More than two weeks have passed since Tesla's 'three-none' Robotaxi debuted, and discussions about this concept car have yet to subside.

Alex Proyas, the director of the Hollywood sci-fi film "I, Robot," recently criticized Tesla on social media, accusing the latter of plagiarizing his creative ideas from the movie, ranging from driverless taxis to robots. While many netizens encouraged Proyas, some mocked him by saying:

You should feel honored. Elon Musk has accomplished in reality what you did with CGI and green screens.

On the evening of October 10, US local time, Tesla's much-delayed Robotaxi concept car drove from the big screen into reality. Named the Cybercab, it is a truly driverless vehicle without a driver, steering wheel, pedals, or rearview mirrors.

During the less-than-half-hour event, Tesla CEO Elon Musk not only took a test ride but also painted a vision of the future—in the era of autonomous driving, you can free your hands from the wheel, save time searching for parking, and even manage a fleet of vehicles like a shepherd tends to his flock.

After this event, which Tesla hailed as a "historic day," everyone asked Musk: How long will it take for this day to arrive?

#01

The Speed of Dreams Becoming Reality

As early as 2016, Musk shared his grand vision for a Robotaxi—a fully autonomous vehicle capable of operating without any human intervention.

The book "Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future" chronicles the many delays in Musk's Robotaxi dreams. In 2017, he claimed that Tesla electric cars would be able to drive from Los Angeles to New York autonomously, with the ability to return by simply tapping a "summon" button on a smartphone.

Since then, Musk has predicted nearly every year that fully autonomous driving would be achieved within a year or so. By 2022, he finally conceded that the process was more challenging than anticipated in 2016, stating, "To achieve fully autonomous driving, we must first solve the problem of artificial intelligence in the real world."

Two years later, this Hollywood spectacle fulfilled, to some extent, Musk's long-overdue promise. In a brief 20-minute speech, Musk hoped to paint a new future for struggling American automakers through the Cybercab.

According to his vision, the operating costs of the Cybercab could eventually drop to around 20 cents per mile (approximately 0.9 yuan per kilometer) in the US, with taxes and other fees adding another 30-40 cents (approximately 1.3-1.8 yuan). This would make the vehicle affordable for everyone. Furthermore, users could purchase the Cybercab in the future for an estimated cost of less than $30,000.

Musk also painted a picture of a better life for users: "What would the future look like with Robotaxis? We could turn parking lots into parks, making our cities even more beautiful." During a Robotaxi ride, users could browse their phones, watch movies, work, or do whatever they please. If you're a ride-hailing driver, you could manage a fleet of vehicles like a shepherd tends to his flock.

In addition to the Cybercab, the event also showcased the driverless multi-purpose Robovan and the humanoid robot Optimus. The Robovan can carry up to 20 people or transport goods, earning it a comparison to "vehicles from Star Wars" by Musk. Optimus, who interacted and danced with the audience, will serve as a "personal assistant" in the future, "taking care of children, walking dogs, mowing lawns, grocery shopping, and even assisting in social situations."

This historic event sparked imagination and excitement among audiences, who fantasized about the Cybercab generating revenue by picking up passengers autonomously while Musk discussed the low costs of Tesla's Robotaxi network and its competition with traditional ride-hailing platforms.

However, many found the event lacking in specific details about how these visions would become reality. According to foreign media reports, "He didn't provide details about any of the Tesla products showcased that night, including the Optimus robots, which are remotely controlled by humans, a fact Musk didn't disclose to excited investors."

Despite this, Musk did provide an estimated timeline for the mass production of the Cybercab: two years from now.#02

The Long-Awaited Promise

When Musk announced the timeline for the mass production of the Cybercab, the market was met with skepticism reminiscent of the boy who cried wolf.

Wall Street investors were unimpressed, expressing disappointment that Tesla failed to showcase a concrete business model or profit potential. This attitude was reflected in the stock market's response, with Tesla shares falling while Uber's rose in the hours following the event.

However, some Tesla bulls predicted that Tesla was aiming for a larger market than ride-hailing platforms like Uber and Didi.

Tasha Keeney, Director of Investment Analysis and Institutional Strategy at ARK, believes that Tesla's advantage lies in its relatively low-cost autonomous taxi service. According to Musk's estimates, the cost of a ride in a Cybercab could be as low as 30 to 40 cents per mile once it is mass-produced, significantly lower than the average cost of ride-hailing services in the West (around $2.40 per mile) and personal car ownership (around 7 cents per mile).

At first glance, the future blueprint for the Cybercab seems capable of justifying Tesla's future valuation of $10 trillion. However, there is a significant caveat: In addition to achieving mass production, the Cybercab must also be allowed on public roads.

In the book "Elon Musk," a detail is revealed about the 'Robotaxi' project: During a meeting in late summer 2022, Musk clashed with the design team over whether the Cybercab should have a steering wheel and pedals. The chief designer suggested building a car with detachable steering and pedals, recognizing that while autonomous driving might be approved in the US, it could take years for other countries to follow suit. Nevertheless, Musk chose to take a risky approach.

Judging from this relatively empty event, Musk seems to be pinning his hopes on Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) capability.

According to Tesla's plans, by 2025, the unsupervised version of FSD will be officially launched in Texas and California. Meanwhile, Tesla expects to start producing the Cybercab in 2026, and users will experience Robotaxi functionality in models like the Model 3 and Model Y before then.

While Musk claims that FSD will be ten times safer than human drivers in the future, the technology is still subject to safety regulations. This underscores Musk's stubbornness in opposing lidar, going against the industry trend, and the Cybercab does not rely on lidar either.

Shortly after the Robotaxi event, Tesla's FSD suffered a regulatory setback. Prior to the event, there were four accidents involving Tesla vehicles with FSD enabled, leading to an investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).#03

Awaiting the 'iPhone Moment'

While Musk's Robotaxi ambitions have yet to convince Wall Street investors, they have certainly stirred up the top players in the autonomous driving industry.

On the day Tesla's Cybercab debuted on Hollywood streets, the Chinese market was abuzz with an image of a 'carrot convention' featuring the global autonomous driving industry. On one side were Tesla and Google's Waymo, representing the 'foreign carrots,' while on the other was Baidu's Apollo Go, symbolizing the 'local carrots.' This updated three-way standoff signals an intensifying competition in the autonomous driving race.

The day before the event, Apollo Go, a veteran player in China's autonomous driving scene, announced its plans to expand overseas and launch its Apollo autonomous driving open platform 10.0, powered by Baidu's latest ADFM large model for autonomous driving. It was also revealed that Apollo Go plans to launch a driverless taxi service in Hong Kong.

Apollo Go emerged from Baidu's autonomous driving project launched in 2013 and was officially named in 2021. In May this year, Baidu unveiled Apollo ADFM, the world's first large model supporting L4 autonomous driving applications, which has been fully applied in Apollo Go's sixth-generation autonomous vehicles, launched in 2022, with a competitive mass production price of less than $30,000.

Prior to its overseas expansion, Apollo Go had already conducted passenger test operations in designated areas and times in 11 Chinese cities, including Shanghai, Beijing, Wuhan, Yangquan, Hefei, and Changsha.

As a leading player in autonomous driving, Google, based in the US, is not far behind. In addition to expanding its operations in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles, Waymo has partnered with ride-hailing giant Uber to launch hundreds of driverless taxi services and plans to collaborate with automakers like General Motors and Hyundai to accelerate its autonomous driving efforts.

However, despite years of investment and layout in the autonomous driving field, Google still faces the dilemma of profitability. An industry analysis report points out that while Waymo's driverless taxis are already on the roads in Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco, the company lost $2 billion in the first half of this year, even with operating costs kept to a minimum.

Operating costs pose a significant barrier to profitability in the autonomous driving industry. In July this year, Apollo Go's projected profitability by 2025 in Wuhan offered a glimmer of hope for the industry. This optimism stems from the fact that the cost of Apollo Go's sixth-generation autonomous vehicle has decreased by 60% compared to its fifth-generation predecessor, with a price tag of around 200,000 yuan.

With Tesla's entry into the field, the arrival of the autonomous driving 'iPhone moment' may be further accelerated. However, the regulatory oversight of safety and the challenge of achieving scalable profitability for Robotaxis will continue to be a long wait.