Four months ago, suspected spy shots of the new Model Y were first exposed overseas. Tesla CEO Elon Musk immediately refuted rumors, saying, "Tesla has no plans for a new Model Y this year." Looking back at that statement four months later, it turns out that only the first half of the rumor was refuted. After all, the newly camouflaged car has arrived in China for testing in the past few days. Following the normal advancement process and speed, if there are no unexpected delays, the new Model Y is expected to be launched in China as soon as next year. This means that six years after its launch, the Model Y is finally receiving a major facelift. So, what aspects of the new car are worth looking forward to?

Split headlights can project, and may also use CATL's new batteries?

At least four batches of spy shots of the new Model Y have been exposed so far, and several confirmed information points are as follows: The overall shape of the car remains unchanged, retaining the current general design outline, but with adjustments to the front and rear ends, and the headlights and taillights will also be optimized simultaneously. This is why, in the latest road test, only these two parts were covered with camouflage clothing, while the wheel rims and four door panels were exposed. The interior design is essentially a direct carryover from the refreshed Model 3, including the removal of the traditional turn signal lever and column shift behind the steering wheel, with their functions integrated into the sides of the steering wheel. Additionally, the door panels now feature ambient lighting, and the front center armrest has a carbon fiber trim panel. The much-complained-about seats will now be made of perforated materials, and the much-anticipated ventilated seats have finally arrived.

Apart from these detailed changes, the light clusters will also see more changes than the refreshed Model 3. For instance, Tesla has used a through-design for the taillights for the first time, making it the second model after the Cybertruck to adopt this design. Moreover, the headlights now feature a split structure. These details suggest that the new Model Y's headlights will offer more functionality than the current model. It's worth noting that Tesla has already rolled out the latest version 2024.32.7 via OTA, one of the upgrades being that the headlights can now swivel in sync with the steering wheel angle. This feature is undoubtedly present in the new car with its all-new lighting system. Importantly, the new Model Y may also incorporate FSD-compatible headlight projection technology. At this year's "we robotaxi" conference, an autonomous vehicle demonstrated this feature, where hundreds of precision microlenses project dynamic patterns on the ground using LED lights when pedestrians are detected by the vehicle's cameras at crosswalks. Whether custom projections will be supported remains to be confirmed by Tesla's official announcement.

Regarding other changes in experience, we can roughly infer them by referring to the performance of the Model 3 before and after its refresh, including optimizing the suspension chassis for better comfort and stability, reducing wind resistance, and adopting a more sensitive kinetic energy recovery strategy to reduce energy consumption and increase range. These two points are undoubtedly the most significant changes in the new Model Y. However, optimizing wind resistance and adjusting energy recovery contribute little to the overall range. After replacing its battery pack with a larger 6kWh capacity, the refreshed Model 3's range increased by only 50km. The current Model Y, apart from the standard range model equipped with a 60kWh battery, offers long-range AWD and Performance versions with 78.4kWh batteries, achieving CLTC ranges of 554km, 688km, and 615km, respectively. Rumors suggest that the new long-range and Performance versions will come with 95kWh battery packs, potentially extending their ranges to over 800km, an increase of 112km and 185km, respectively. In short, changes to the power battery are inevitable.

Before Tesla officially announces battery information, this 95kWh battery pack raises two questions: Will the new car adopt a new battery? Will the new car continue to use the current 2170 battery cells, potentially extending the wheelbase to accommodate more cells? Answering the second question first, it is unlikely that the wheelbase will be extended solely to increase battery capacity. Moreover, the exposed spy shots suggest no significant changes in the car's dimensions, so we must consider the battery aspect. The current Model Y's long-range and Performance versions are equipped with LG's 2170 NMC cylindrical batteries, with an energy density of 168kWh/kg and a cell weight of approximately 68g, requiring approximately 4416 cells in total. Including the battery pack's upper and lower covers, BMS, auxiliary components, cooling pipes, high-voltage harnesses, heat-shrink tubing, and high-voltage connectors, the entire battery pack weighs less than 500kg. Therefore, simply stacking more cells would inevitably increase the vehicle's weight, contrary to the goal of reducing energy consumption.

Furthermore, considering that the current Model Y's 2170 batteries are packaged horizontally to better adapt to the chassis structure without encroaching on cabin space, adding an additional 16.6kWh of battery capacity would primarily extend towards the front or rear ends, posing higher layout requirements for the chassis space. Thus, the fundamental solution is not to adjust the wheelbase for battery capacity but to replace the batteries altogether. So, who are the likely candidates? The most probable answer is CATL's Shenxing battery, announced in April this year, with high-end Qilin batteries and hybrid-specific Xiaoyao batteries being less likely options.

In terms of battery performance, the Qilin battery is the most suitable choice due to its high energy density of 250kWh/kg and module-less design, which aligns well with Tesla's integrated casting and battery-to-chassis technology. However, from a cost perspective, the Qilin battery may not be suitable for cost-conscious Model Y buyers. While its energy density of 205Wh/kg is lower than that of the Qilin battery, the Shenxing battery also supports 4C charging rates with a maximum fast charging power of 350kW, comparable to the 327kW offered by the Cybertruck equipped with 4680 batteries. Therefore, based on this logic, we speculate that Tesla may opt for the Shenxing battery in the new Model Y.

Probably no 800V, but faster charging than before?

Given the speculation about the new battery, it stands to reason that charging speeds will also increase. As previously analyzed from a technical perspective, faster charging speeds can be achieved by increasing voltage or current. The former logic underpins the development of 800V high-voltage platforms, while the latter is the basis of Tesla's current V3 Supercharger technology. If the new Model Y adopts a battery that supports 4C charging rates, we can expect to see an 800V, high-capacity battery version in the future.

It's important to note that the 800V mentioned here refers to a multi-voltage platform, with 400V and 800V coexisting. Simply put, when there is no 800V charging station available, the vehicle can still charge using a 400V station. Among Tesla's current lineup, only the Cybertruck employs an 800V high-voltage system. The speculation that the new Model Y may also adopt a localized 800V system is primarily based on its battery integration approach, which is similar to that of the Cybertruck, featuring four modules arranged longitudinally with each module exceeding 220V in voltage. Switching between 400V and 800V is straightforward, involving a component that controls two circuits and uses a highly integrated, hermetically sealed bipolar switch to connect these four modules in series or parallel. From a cost perspective, integrating this component into the new Model Y would not be difficult.

Considering the 4C battery, we can further infer that the charging time of the new Model Y will see a significant improvement. This battery inherently supports high-current charging conditions, enabling a SOC range of 10%-80% in as little as 15 minutes. However, there is a catch: The Shenxing Battery PLUS is a LFP battery, and LFP batteries generally have lower energy densities than NMC batteries due to their inherent physical structure, which precludes them from achieving high voltages. Currently, Tesla's V3 Supercharger has a maximum charging power of 250kW and a charging rate of 2C. This raises the question: Even if the new Model Y supports localized 800V charging, can it utilize Tesla's own charging stations? It seems highly unlikely that it cannot. Therefore, we can conclude that even without 800V support, the new 4C-rated battery will significantly enhance charging speeds. Consequently, future fast charging times for the new Model Y are expected to be reduced to less than half an hour, rather than the current nearly one-hour duration.

Regarding the motors, we can draw insights from the Model 3's pre- and post-refresh performance. The rear-wheel-drive and long-range AWD versions have upgraded their rear motor models from 3D6 to 3D7, while the limited-production high-performance AWD version has switched to 4D2. Prior to this, the 3D7 model was exclusive to the high-performance AWD version. Similarly, the current Model Y only offers the 3D7 motor in its long-range AWD version, while the rear-wheel-drive standard-wheelbase and Performance versions remain on the 3D6. Based on this strategy, the entry-level model of the new Model Y is expected to be upgraded to the 3D7, while the other two models are likely to receive the 4D2 upgrade.

In summary, after several rounds of spy shot exposures, the foreseeable upgrades for Tesla's new Model Y are not numerous. Most potential upgrades have already been tested in the refreshed Model 3. The core changes are most likely to focus on the electric drive system.