Original by New Energy View (ID: xinnengyuanqianzhan)

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The 2024 Guangzhou Auto Show provides a good reflection of the current state of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles.

According to the organizing committee, there were a total of 1,171 vehicles on display at this auto show, of which 512 were new energy vehicles, accounting for more than 40% of the total, but attracting more attention.

While fuel vehicle booths were desolate and quiet, new energy vehicle booths were bustling with crowds. Behind this stark contrast, there was no surprise from consumers, only familiarity. As the market trend, electrification is already evident to all.

But, as the 'disappointed party', will fuel vehicles just give up?

1. Fuel Vehicles: Do I Still Have a Chance?

In fact, ignoring this auto show, the downturn in the fuel vehicle market has long been evident.

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to October 2024, the cumulative domestic sales of traditional fuel passenger vehicles was 9.046 million, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5%; while the cumulative domestic sales of new energy vehicles was 8.692 million, a year-on-year increase of 38.3%.

Graph/Fuel vehicle sales data from January to October 2024

Source/Screenshot from CAAM New Energy View

Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said, 'From the perspective of different levels of the automotive market, the growth rates of new energy passenger vehicles at all levels are higher than those of traditional fuel passenger vehicles.'

Thus, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the narrowing trend of the fuel vehicle market has become irreversible, and the once 'prime' era of fuel vehicles has become a thing of the past.

From a market perspective, fuel vehicles are clearly no longer the trend, but what about from a consumer perspective?

In contacts with New Energy View, it was found that more than half of 100 consumers would prioritize new energy vehicles when purchasing a car.

Li Guo (pseudonym) from Beijing recently considered replacing his father's old fuel vehicle with a new energy vehicle. 'The fuel consumption issue is actually more serious than many people imagine. In winter, although the power consumption of electric vehicles will increase, fuel vehicles also consume more fuel in cold weather, costing about 1.5 yuan per kilometer in winter.'

Song Ranran (pseudonym), who works in a state-owned enterprise after graduating from graduate school, considered buying a new energy vehicle due to her long commute. 'I travel over 40 kilometers round trip to work every day. By this calculation, the cost of traveling by electric vehicle is much lower than that of a fuel vehicle. In the long run, the savings can even support a trip to nearby places.'

Based on the above consumer needs, it is not difficult to see that opportunities for fuel vehicles are becoming increasingly slim.

However, it should be noted that slim opportunities do not mean impossibility.

Currently, the new energy vehicle market has its own headaches, which has obviously become a reason why some consumers choose fuel vehicles.

Zhang Le (pseudonym) recently wanted to buy a new energy vehicle but ultimately chose to buy a BMW X1 instead due to the lack of a fixed parking space in his residential area. 'Although the popularization of public charging stations in various regions is quite fast, it is still difficult to find charging stations near our community. If you want convenient energy replenishment, you can only choose a home charging pile, but my community is too old, with neither fixed parking spaces nor suitable wiring.'

Zhang Le's situation is not unique in the market. Many consumers who wanted to buy new energy vehicles but ultimately gave up for various reasons faced similar issues: wanting to buy a pure electric vehicle but being unable to install a home charging pile or facing inconvenient energy replenishment, so they had to give up; wanting to buy an extended-range vehicle but being constrained by its short pure electric range and the fact that fast charging for 30-40 minutes can only replenish energy from 20% to 80%.

2. Extended-Range Vehicles, Not What They Used to Be

'This Guangzhou Auto Show was worth the trip!'"

After a day at the Guangzhou Auto Show, visitors from different regions expressed the above view.

Digging deeper, in contact with many consumers, we discovered the clues.

At this auto show, in addition to intelligent driving, which is a market favorite, the topic of 'extended range,' an oft-discussed subject, also became the point that most impressed consumers.

It is understood that at this auto show, Wenjie, Lixiang, Avita, Xingtu, Shenlan, and Leap Motor all showcased their extended-range models to consumers.

However, what made consumers 'fall in love' with these models was not simply the large number of models on display.

Looking back, the market has never lacked new extended-range vehicles. Lixiang, Leap Motor, and Nezha, as the first batch of 'new forces in automaking,' all have extended-range models as their main offerings.

This raises a new question: What is unique about the extended-range vehicles at the 22nd Guangzhou Auto Show that has made them suddenly popular?

'To be honest, I never thought that one day an extended-range vehicle would really achieve a once-a-week charging schedule. I'm really stressed out with my current vehicle that needs to be charged every day.'

'I've always been hesitant to buy an extended-range vehicle because it takes too long to replenish energy. Winters in the north are too cold, and waiting at a charging station is really miserable. Now, I see that many extended-range vehicles at the auto show can replenish energy from 30% to 80% in just 15 minutes.'

In contact with many visitors, we found that most mainstream extended-range models currently on display at the auto show have moved closer to the batteries equipped in pure electric vehicles, with longer pure electric range and faster energy replenishment speeds, allowing consumers to immediately experience the same driving experience as pure electric vehicles.

Specifically, the 2025 model of Zhijie R7 extended-range version has a pure electric range of over 200 km. Based on its equipped CATL battery, it will resolve consumers' anxiety about slow energy replenishment for extended-range vehicles upon delivery, potentially offering the ability to 'replenish over 280 km of energy in just 10 minutes of charging.'

Graph/Zhijie R7

Source/Screenshot from the Internet New Energy View

The Avita 11 Ultra extended-range version has a pre-sale price starting at 299,900 yuan, with a CLTC pure electric range of 225 km and support for 3C supercharging. Under ideal conditions, the battery pack can be replenished from 30% to 80% in as little as 15 minutes.

The Xingji Nian ET extended-range four-wheel drive version has a pre-sale price starting at 249,800 yuan, a CLTC pure electric range of 240 km, and can replenish energy from 20% to 80% in just 17.5 minutes of charging.

Graph/Avita 11 Ultra extended-range version

Source/Screenshot from the Internet New Energy View

Overall, the reason why mainstream models under these brands can easily resolve consumers' anxieties about pure electric extended range is mainly due to their correct choices, using a 'big battery and small fuel tank' to cure the industry's chronic illness of 'small battery and big fuel tank.'

Of course, in addition to upgrades in range and energy replenishment, extended-range vehicles have also shown improvement in cabin quietness. For example, Thalys' new generation of super extended-range systems can reduce noise perception by 90%.

3. Enhanced Extended Range - A Fatal Blow to Fuel Vehicles

The improvement in extended range will compress the market space for fuel vehicles, but is it also opposed to pure electric vehicles?

Many consumers who have not truly understood the current extended-range technology have once raised such questions.

After reviewing the overall automotive market, the answer gradually becomes clear. Extended range has never been the opposite of pure electric, and the reason why it was once considered a stumbling block on the path to full electrification by some automakers and consumers was mainly due to its drawback of 'small battery and big fuel tank.'

Now, with the arrival of the 'big battery and small fuel tank,' consumers who currently cannot install charging piles or face inconvenient charging and battery swapping but still drive fuel vehicles can also experience the driving experience of pure electric vehicles. As a result, the popularization of new energy has also reached a new level.

Huang Jie (pseudonym), a prospective owner of the 2024 model of the Shenlan L07 extended-range version, is from Changsha, Hunan, and stayed in Guangzhou after graduating from university. In her view, she must take advantage of the fact that electricity is cheaper than fuel.

Graph/Shenlan L07

Source/Screenshot from the Internet New Energy View

Regarding why she waited and observed the new energy market for a year, she frankly stated, 'I usually like to drive to nearby cities for a drive, and the single energy replenishment method of pure electric vehicles is still somewhat risky for me. Therefore, I have always wanted to buy an extended-range vehicle, but I have been hesitant due to its slow charging speed. Now, the extended-range version of the Shenlan L07 is equipped with a CATL battery that can recharge from 12% to 80% in just 20 minutes.'

'After visiting the Guangzhou Auto Show this weekend, I plan to trade in my BMW X1 for an extended-range vehicle. Although the issue of inconvenient charging near my home has not been resolved, I see that most new extended-range vehicles now support supercharging, eliminating the problem of slow charging. This way, I can charge my car on the way home from work and then drive back,' said Zhang Le.

It is worth noting that with the help of the 'big battery and small fuel tank,' some mainstream models in the extended-range market have indeed shown improvement and gained the favor of most consumers. However, one should not generalize; partial improvement does not mean that all consumers no longer have concerns when facing the entire extended-range market.

In contacts with New Energy View, many consumers expressed their future vision for the extended-range market, hoping that the 'big battery and small fuel tank' can be popularized to all extended-range and hybrid models as soon as possible. This way, consumers will not have to spend time worrying about vehicle range and energy replenishment when purchasing a car, and they will be able to truly buy a car based on personalized needs.

Will 2025 fulfill consumers' wishes?