(Image: Hypothetical rendering of the new Model Y overseas)

Last week, Tesla sold a total of 17,130 new vehicles in China, with Model Y accounting for over 58% of the sales. Despite being surrounded by new competitors like the Ledo L60, Zeekr 7X, AITO 07, and Zhiji R7, this nearly six-year-old model still seems to maintain its competitiveness, thanks to five years of interest-free financing for six consecutive months. However, with more news about the new Model Y emerging, potential buyers might want to hold off. If all goes well, the domestic launch could happen as early as the first quarter of next year. Based on previous price changes surrounding the refreshed Model 3, the new Model Y is expected to see a slight price increase in China. This article will not delve into pricing but will instead focus on the upgrades expected in the new Model Y.

Redesigned front end for reduced drag, will the cabin's chip be upgraded to the next generation?

Since the first test vehicle was spotted in China at the end of October this year, at least five batches of spy shots of the new Model Y have emerged globally. Currently, it is confirmed that the vehicle retains its typical short front overhang and long rear overhang design, with a wheelbase-to-axle ratio of approximately 3:1. There will be noticeable changes to the front and rear ends, with modifications to both the shape and internal structure of the headlights and taillights. Split headlights are highly likely, and our previous technical analysis suggests that these new headlights may incorporate projection technology compatible with FSD. Inside, many changes from the refreshed Model 3 have been carried over, including the removal of the column shifter and turn signal stalk, the addition of star-ring ambient lighting on the door panels, ventilated seats (a feature often criticized by owners), and continued use of eco-friendly interior materials. Finding large areas of genuine leather will thus be a rarity.

Are there any other new details? Let's start with the exterior design. The test vehicle spotted in China last month was the last spy shot of the new Model Y. The camouflage only covered the front and rear ends, revealing the exterior mirrors, door panels, wheel sizes, and even door handles. Therefore, the only external changes are expected to be at the front and rear. Based on previous spy shots from Spain, Tesla has likely redesigned the entire front bumper, lowering the main beam compared to the current model and adding at least two raised ribs for a more flattened bonnet. The front spoiler style resembles that of the refreshed Model 3 Performance, with a smooth Y0 line and a streamlined design that reduces wind resistance. Newly designed low-drag wheels are also likely, though their size specifications may remain unchanged, suggesting an even lower drag coefficient for the new Model Y.

Another piece of evidence comes from a seemingly uncamouflaged test vehicle of the new Model Y spotted in California, USA, also at the end of October this year. Although there are no clear shots of the front end, the spy shot reveals two key details: the addition of an electric spoiler and the presence of a full-width taillight. Some may wonder about the connection between an electric spoiler and drag. Aerodynamically, it optimizes airflow during driving, improving drag and enhancing dynamic stability. The electric spoiler on the eighth-generation Porsche 911, for example, can generate up to 409kg of downforce, keeping the car firmly planted on the ground. In other words, the new Model Y is expected to outperform the current model in acceleration and top speed. This is further supported by the Tesla Plaid icon in the lower right corner. Notably, Tesla's latest OTA update emphasizes safety. Combined with the new bonnet design, we speculate that the new model may include a bonnet pedestrian protection system, although this is not a new technology as it has been used in fuel-powered vehicles by brands like Lexus, Honda, Volvo, and Mercedes-Benz for over eight years.

Inside the cabin, what other changes can we expect besides the known ones? Firstly, the voice control system will undoubtedly be optimized, such as supporting voice wake-up functions, though this is technically straightforward and can be achieved by allowing the in-car system to access the microphone. The question is, if this could be done via OTA, why hasn't Tesla improved the voice experience in the smart cabin over the past six years? The answer is not that they couldn't, but rather that they might be developing a more powerful cabin chip with better compatibility with HW4.0. The early MCU 2.0 version delivered in China used an Intel ATOM processor and was in use for about two years before being replaced by the AMD Ryzen with a 12nm process, four cores, eight threads, and 8GB of integrated VRAM. Its performance is twice that of the widely used Qualcomm 8155, especially in computing power. MCU 3.0 can even handle PC-level computing tasks within the vehicle, effortlessly running games requiring significant memory. However, from an electrical architecture perspective, both the smart cabin and autonomous driving chips need to be compatible. Since FSD is likely to evolve beyond V12, the smart cabin component cannot lag behind. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of the new Model Y featuring MCU 4.0. The specific specifications or performance of the cabin chip will need to be confirmed by official announcements.

New battery with 15-minute fast charging, adaptive damping suspension for enhanced comfort over the refreshed Model 3?

Regarding the battery pack capacity of the new Model Y, online rumors suggest a 95kWh battery for long-range models with 350kW fast charging, both domestically and internationally. Interestingly, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, known for his active debunking of rumors, has never directly addressed this. His last denial was regarding the release of the new Model Y in 2024. If the rumors are true, this would be the largest battery pack ever equipped in a Model Y (the current maximum is 78.4kWh). Comparing it to the ZEEKR 001, which also uses this battery, offers a minimum CLTC range of 675km and a maximum of 722km, aligning with the rumored 700km range for the new Model Y. However, can the new Model Y accommodate a larger battery pack without altering the wheelbase?

The answer is generally no. The current long-range/performance Model Y uses LG's 2170 ternary lithium-ion cylindrical batteries, arranged horizontally in packs of approximately 4,416 cells, fitting the chassis structure without encroaching on cabin space. To add another 16.6kWh, the cells would need to extend towards the front or rear. Given that Tesla uses integrated casting technology for the chassis, remolding it to accommodate a larger battery pack would significantly increase costs. A more efficient approach would be to replace the 2170 batteries. As previously analyzed, it is likely that CATL's Envision Plus battery (supporting 4C fast charging and a maximum of 350kW) will be used. This not only addresses the challenge of integrating a larger battery but also optimizes fast charging efficiency. According to the battery's characteristics, it can add 400km of range in 10 minutes, reach 80% SOC in 15 minutes from 20%, and fully charge within 30 minutes. Compared to the current model's nearly one-hour fast charging time, the new Model Y's charging speed will double.

Most notably, the new Model Y will see optimizations in its chassis and suspension. The front double-wishbone (separate shock absorber and spring) and rear five-link suspension setup, common in fuel-powered sports cars, offers precise steering and strong stability but can be overly firm, transmitting longitudinal and lateral stresses directly to the seats. Last March, Tesla made minor adjustments to the domestic Model Y, primarily reducing the support stiffness at the top of the shock absorbers to minimize road impact on the chassis. Details include adjustments to the damping and elastic components in the suspension system, reducing spring stiffness by 2N/mm to 5N/mm to lessen the bumpiness from vertical chassis bounces. However, these adjustments still fell short of meeting most owners' comfort expectations, as evidenced by the loud feedback from the spring tube and body when crossing speed bumps in underground parking lots at around 20km/h. So, how will the new Model Y optimize this?

Among the most effective and relatively easy-to-implement solutions for enhancing chassis comfort is the use of adaptive damping suspension. The technology involves adjusting the damping valve through the chassis's sensing hardware, utilizing hydraulic principles to vary the damping force and control the rebound speed of the springs, thereby adapting to various road conditions. This is somewhat similar to BYD's FSD adaptive damping suspension technology. Huawei's Turang engine, on the other hand, requires an air suspension system (with better dual-chamber vibration filtration) for optimal performance.

Regarding the possibility of a new rear motor, we can speculate based on the adjustments made to the refreshed Model 3. For instance, the rear motors for the rear-wheel-drive and long-range models were upgraded from 3D6 (220kW) to 3D7 (194kW), while the high-performance AWD model switched to 4D2 (265kW). Prior to this, 3D7 was exclusive to the high-performance AWD, but currently, only the long-range Model Y uses 3D7, with the standard-range and performance models still using 3D6. In terms of performance, the 3D7's maximum power is 26kW lower than the 3D6, making it more suitable for the long-range version. Based on this strategy, it is possible that the standard-range version of the new Model Y will adopt 3D7, while the other two versions will likely upgrade to 4D2. Finally, there is the anticipation of whether the new Model Y will feature steer-by-wire technology. Given that Tesla's Cybertruck already utilizes this technology, and domestic companies like Xiaomi, NIO, Changan, XPeng, and GAC are accelerating its adoption, it is plausible that only the performance-oriented versions of the new Model Y, considering cost and technical effectiveness, will be equipped with this feature.