Rumors are spreading. How long can Tesla continue to draw the big pie of affordable cars?

12/09 2024 361

Behind the intense activities lies Tesla's unconcealed anxiety.

With production halts, investor meetings, and the recruitment of a vehicle communications manager, Tesla, which should have been operating smoothly before Christmas, has indeed made quite a stir, initiating a series of unusual operations in just a few days.

As the largest new energy vehicle enterprise in the United States, Tesla's sales volume has always been in an absolutely leading position. However, under the low penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the United States, sluggish sales growth has become a reality that Tesla must face, especially under the impact of hybrid models. Tesla, which adheres to a pure electric strategy, does not have an optimistic short-term outlook.

In the U.S. domestic market, only 48,000 vehicles were delivered in November, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%. This performance is regarded by the outside world as indicating that Tesla's sales growth has reached a bottleneck. Notably, the U.S. automotive market experienced a recovery growth in November, with a year-on-year increase of over 9.8%, and multiple brands set new annual sales records.

Saving Sales

Shortly after the November sales figures were released, it was reported that Tesla's factory had temporarily halted production. According to an internal notice, the Cybertruck assembly line at the Austin factory will be temporarily halted from December 3rd to 5th.

This is not the first time such a situation has occurred. According to Tesla factory employees, adjustments to the Cybertruck production line have been frequent since late October, and some employees even need to participate in training or perform cleaning work to ensure they meet the required working hours.

Behind this lies a severe deviation between the number of Cybertruck deliveries and reservations. As Tesla's most innovative model in recent years, the Cybertruck has attracted much attention since its debut. Especially since deliveries began at the end of 2023, Tesla even transported several exhibition vehicles to display in the Chinese market to build momentum for the Cybertruck.

According to content previously released by Tesla, the number of Cybertruck orders exceeds 1 million. However, the reality is that as of now, according to third-party statistics, only 50,000 Cybertrucks have been delivered, a significant difference from the number of orders.

Some analysts say that due to noticeable discrepancies between the mass-produced Tesla Cybertruck and the previously advertised configuration, especially the shorter driving range and higher pricing, some reservation holders have canceled their orders.

Faced with suppressed demand, Tesla officially initiated a new round of price wars. The Cybertruck price was directly reduced by $2,000, and new vehicles can now be delivered within days without waiting in line. Additionally, Tesla reduced the leasing price of the Cybertruck by 10% to boost sales.

Unlike other regions, pickup trucks are very popular in the U.S. market. Compared to sedans and SUVs, American consumers are more willing to purchase a pickup truck for daily use. According to statistics, more than 2.87 million pickup trucks were sold in the U.S. market in 2023, with the Ford F-150, the sales champion, selling 750,000 units.

It can be said that a company can truly establish a foothold in the automotive market in the U.S. only by securing a position in the pickup truck market. This is also the main motivation behind Tesla's launch of the Cybertruck. Despite being an electric model, Tesla did not demonstrate the strength expected of an electric vehicle giant this time.

Before the Cybertruck's release, multiple electric pickup truck models had already emerged in the U.S. market, including an electric version of the Ford F-150. The market had fully verified the sales performance of electric pickup trucks. Although the Cybertruck has the added benefits of stainless steel and bulletproof glass, it is still difficult to easily shake the traditional pickup truck market.

On the other hand, in its traditional stronghold, Tesla has not expanded its advantage. Unlike the fiercely competitive Chinese and European markets, the North American new energy market has always been a relatively subdued area of competition. With the support of trade barriers, the U.S. new energy market can be described as being dominated by Tesla alone.

Major brands have also begun to shift their focus to the U.S. to seize a share of this market, with multinational corporations including Volkswagen and Toyota increasing investments in new energy vehicles in the U.S. market.

However, Tesla's share of the U.S. electric vehicle market has declined below 50% for the first time. The main reason for this is that Tesla's current main sales models, the Model 3 and Model Y, are older models that have not undergone significant updates in a long time, lacking market competitiveness.

Under such circumstances, analysts have pointed out that Tesla's sales growth in 2024 may not exceed that of 2023. After all, Tesla did not announce its 2024 sales target at the beginning of the year. Judging from current sales statistics, Tesla still has some distance to go to maintain the same growth rate.

Big Pie of Affordable Cars

Compared to current sales, Tesla currently needs to address the development of future models more urgently. Although Musk personally unveiled two Tesla self-driving cars oriented toward the future in October, given the current delay in the implementation of self-driving technology, Tesla may need to pay more attention to reality.

In fact, news about new models has never stopped. As early as 2021, there were reports that Tesla would launch a new, smaller model with a price of $25,000.

However, this news was quickly denied, but then rumors emerged that Tesla was developing a Model Q, considered a replacement for the previously rumored Model 2. After that, there was not much information about the Model Q until this year, when the model was mentioned again. Musk also revealed that production of this car might begin at the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025.

At the end of the year, when Tesla was ramping up sales, it revealed at an investor meeting on December 8th that the Model Q would debut in the first half of 2025, with a price below $30,000 after subsidies.

Tesla's big pie, which has been in the making for three years, has made new progress. It is reported that in addition to the compact new car, Tesla also plans to launch a long-wheelbase version of the Model Y in the Chinese market to boost sales there.

Regarding the long-wheelbase version of the Model Y, consumers are more concerned about whether Tesla will simultaneously introduce a 7-seater model. The current 7-seater Model Y is currently only sold in North America, and due to the current vehicle length, some North American users have tested the third-row seats of the 7-seater model and found them to be quite cramped, making it difficult to accommodate an adult.

However, even with this unreasonable design, consumers still need to pay an additional $3,000 for the two extra seats. The rumored redesigned Model Y will have an increased length of 10cm, which may be more conducive to third-row seating comfort.

Although the 7-seater Model Y has been delivered in the United States since 2021, it did not leave the U.S. until the second half of this year, when pre-orders began in the European market. It can be said that Tesla is not too optimistic about this 7-seater model internally.

Perhaps only the revealed long-wheelbase version can save this model, which has a severely polarized reputation.

It can be seen that Tesla's current global sales performance is not as optimistic as it was in 2023. With price adjustments, Tesla has already unleashed the market's potential purchasing power, albeit at some cost. Although sales maintained rapid growth in 2023, Tesla's gross profit margin has been declining continuously.

Throughout 2024, Tesla has also made multiple price adjustments. Especially in the Chinese market, under the market environment of increasing new energy penetration rates, Tesla has shown the expected sales growth. However, in other markets, Tesla's growth rate varies significantly.

To maintain a good brand reputation, Tesla will restart its public relations team. Recently, Tesla's official website posted a job recruitment notice for a "Vehicle Communications Manager." The job description states that this position is primarily responsible for coordinating external media communication related to Tesla's vehicle projects, including collaborating with the technical team to ensure the consistency and accuracy of vehicle data and approving website content to promote external media evaluations of products."

Furthermore, this position requires participation in setting new product goals, assessing project progress, and serving as a vital link between the company and the media.

It can be said that since Tesla disbanded its public relations team four years ago and Musk personally took to social platforms to release relevant information, Tesla's development has entered a high-speed period. However, this has also brought about quite a bit of negative news. Relying solely on Musk personally, it is difficult to comprehensively manage publicity.

Especially after Musk became Donald Trump's number one fan, his energy was almost entirely focused on national affairs, leaving Tesla's operations and management in a relatively hands-off state. Against this backdrop, restarting the public relations team may also be a response to future situations.

It can be said that Tesla has limited strategies at its disposal as its growth rate slows down, especially when the CEO is overwhelmed with operational responsibilities. Maintaining high-speed growth has become a challenging issue, and the existing management can only continue to repeat the big pie they have drawn and maintain the status quo.

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